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Everything posted by Jon Joseph
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Oregon also opens 2025 at No. 7 in the AP Poll, receives first-place vote
Thanks, Steven. Re-Rank USA Playoff: ROSE BOWL - 1. Penn State vs. 9. Miami at 8. Oregon - ๐ COTTON BOWL - 4. Texas vs. 12. Boise State at 5. Notre Dame - Rematch of regular-season game ๐ SUGAR BOWL - 2. Georgia vs. 10. LSU at 7. Alabama - Rematch of regular-season game ๐ ORANGE BOWL - 3. Clemson vs. 11. Kansas State at 6. Ohio State - ๐ Greg Sankey would hate the Sugar Bowl all SEC bracket and No. 11 Oklahoma being knocked out by No. 13 Kansas State. He would like 4 SEC teams in the field. Using the B1G format, with 4 AQs and No. 11 Oklahoma receiving an At Large bid, 5 SEC teams would be in the 16-team field. No. 16 Tennessee would be knocked out by the B12's 2nd AQ, No. 18 ASU. Without 2 AQs the B12 misses out on millions of PO dollars. Tony Petitti would not like OBD matching up against Penn State in the 2nd round and No. 12 Illinois being knocked out by No. 23 Boise State. Using the B1G formula, with 4 AQs, Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon, and No. 12 Illinois are in the field. With No. 15 Michigan's At-Large bid, the B1G would have 5 teams in a 16-team field. The B12 would benefit from having No. 13 K State and No. 18 ASU in the field. With AQs Clemson and Miami and No. 14 Louisville in with an At-Large bid, the ACC would have three teams in the field. The B1G AQ format would give the B12 two PO teams and the ACC three, millions of PO dollars more for the two Lesser 4 conferences. The B1G AQ format would provide more money for the ACC and the B12 than a 5-11 format. Why did Greg Sankey reverse course from the B1G's AQ format to 5-11? So Kentucky could go to the Who in the Hell Cares Bowl? So the SEC can make no additional money from ESPN for playing a 9th conference game? So the SEC can make no additional money from 3 versus 6 and 4 versus 5 PO play-in games? So, the conference champ game will not be played on the final week of the season, so the PO champ game played deep into the NFL playoffs can draw fewer eyes on the prize? To defend the ACC, B12, and CFB at large against the B1G's greedy AQ format? ๐ With no AQs and straight seeding, No. 16 Tennessee would knock out No. 18 ASU, but with the additional money earned in the regular season from playing nine regular-season games and the PO play-in games, plus the potential income from a B1G/SEC Conference challenge, having Tennessee in the field using the 5-11 format would be penny-wise and pound-foolish.
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Josh Pate Predicts 2025 Big-10 Champion: Penn State Over Oregon
On the CBS Sports Preseason college football preview, Notre Dame alum Aaron Taylor picked ND to win it all this season. Texas alum Brian Jones likes his Horns to win it all. I thought I'd never express this, but Hats Off to UCLA grad Rick Neuheisel, who picked OBD to win it all! (Even with paying more than a nickel for Nico, Rick did not pick his Bruins to win it all. ๐) Even though Forum Fanatics will be in the house for a White Out in a Lion's Den, winning in Beaver Stadium will be difficult and then some. PSU is -4.5 today and plays no opponent with a heartbeat before OBD visits State College. A reasonable line considering home-field advantage, but tempered by James Franklin's 3-16 record against top 10-ranked teams when PSU was also ranked in the top 10. However, Penn State is the underdog at +3 on the early line for the game in Columbus versus Ohio State. James Franklin is 1-9 versus the Buckeyes. I'd just as soon see OBD go 11-1 with the 5th seed and an opening home game versus the playoff committee's 12th-seeded team as to again go 13-0 with another 1st round bye, followed by PO bye-bye.
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Michigan Keeps It's Title....Loses 30 Million
Michigan is appealing another NCAA ad hoc judgment. The real law defers to precedent when doling out punishment or to statutory-mandated penalties or a range of penalties. The NCAA makes it up as it goes along. Michigan's 11 violations were .055% of Tennessee's 200 violations. The Vols had 11 Level I violations, the same as Michigan's 'regular violations,' Michigan had 6 Level I violations. The disparity in monetary damages is inexplicable. Buying players before NIL deals were legal gave tennessee a clear competitive advantage but earned Tennessee a comparative NCAA slap on the wrist. CFB-HQ On SIWhy Michigan will appeal the NCAA's punishment, and what...Michigan learned its fate this week after the NCAA revealed its full punishment for the Wolverines football program in the wake of the sign-stealing controversy
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Michigan Keeps It's Title....Loses 30 Million
Great take, Mike. Michigan was 'punished' by the B1G in 2023 with the conference benching Harbaugh for three games. But the program wasn't fined. Revisiting the NCAA sanction scoreboard. Tennessee - 200 violations, 18 Level I violations - $8 million fine. Michigan - 11 violations, 6 Level I violations - Between a $25 and $30 million fine. 'Justice,' Roy Bean and NCAA style. ๐คฌ
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There's Bias and then There's the Updated FPI Rankings
This comes from SMU coach and former Arkansas QB and coach in the SEC, Rhett Lashlee. Give 'em the lash, Rhett! ๐I love an ESecPN and implied Sankey spanking. https://athlonsports.com/college-football/coach-accuses-espn-of-rigging-college-football-rankings AP - Clemson No. 4, Miami No. 10, SMU No. 16 Revised Faulty Prediction Index - Clemson No. 16, Miami No. 17, SMU No. 19, for a total difference of -22.
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HELP ME! I Need Your Feedback to Solve an Issue...
Now, Wait a Minute! I tried again just now, and Google let me in.๐
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Sources Say B1G Eyeing 24 Or 28 CFP
I understand and, of course, respect your POV. Yet, the NFL that I watched in the 1960s played 12 games a season. Today, the NFL plays 17 regular-season games a season, which is predicted to soon go to 18 games. The number of NFL teams has more than doubled since the 1960s, and the viewership numbers continue to climb. In 1960, my father's friend, Billy Sullivan, bought the Boston Patriots franchise for $25,000.00 (not a typo.) Today, the franchise is worth an estimated 7.5 to 10 billion dollars, which, based on the Celtics selling for $6 billion, is likely on the low side. Of course, there has been population growth; a third more people reside in the USA than when I was growing up, but many more people watch college football today than when far fewer regular-season games and postseason games were played. People tune in to watch games not only on Saturday, but every day of the week. Compare the broadcast revenue for college football in 1960 to today's media deals. Come 2030, I expect the B1G media deal will bring in more revenue than today's once-unheard-of revenues.
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Sources Say B1G Eyeing 24 Or 28 CFP
David, I understand your thoughts on playoff expansion. However, more people watched college football in 2024-25 than in the history of the sport. The putative value of college football programs is at an all-time high, with private equity firms trying to get a foot in the door. College football playoffs managed by the NCAA at the FCS, D2, and D3 levels all have a 24-team field. The same for the NAIA college football playoff. If the NCAA, from the advent of bowl games, had been in charge of the college football postseason, Division 1, FBS, would have a 24-team playoff. We would also likely have a 10-game regular season and far less conference expansion and retraction. Look at the CBB tournament and consider the broadcast revenue the NCAA would have brought in and distributed over the decades if it had managed the Big Boys football tournament. Also, if the CFB committee operated like the CBB committee and the process was not owned by Disney/ESPN, there would be disappointment, no doubt, but also a disclosure of the metrics used when the committee made its at-large and seeding decisions. Again, I understand the negative reaction to doubling the size of the FBS playoff. The same reaction we heard when the BCS went to a four-team playoff: "This will destroy the regular season!" Didn't happen. If possible, I'd go back to having four bowl games featuring college football's best of the best, football played in the daytime, ending the season on January 1st, not anointing high school players as saviors of a given program, and a Pac-8 or Pac-10 conference with round robin in conference play. Not happening. Meanwhile, can we please just Play Ball and have actual games to discuss?
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There's Bias and then There's the Updated FPI Rankings
Drake, thanks for posting the video. No offense meant toward you, my friend, but IMO the video is puff piece propaganda, including the reference to the exquisite math behind the FPI. The math is too difficult to fathom, so move right along, nothing to see here. My guess, if it weren't proprietary, hundreds of thousands of software and programming 'experts' and millions of people versed in mathematics, would 'get' the math. The majority of us on the Forum followed college football assiduously and with passion over the last four seasons. Did anyone watch anything from the 2021 season through the 2024-25 playoffs that justifies this SEC-centric ranking? Make no mistake, the SEC based on recruiting numbers and the number of players drafted every year is, IMO, top to bottom deeper than the B1G. At least I think so? What would the SEC records look like at the end of the season with eight more losses among the 16 member teams? This is the question Tony Petitti is asking, and it isn't answered by a biased ranking being peddled as legit because it 'objectively' emanates from a computer. Setting the machine aside, I seem to recall ESPN honks decrying three 3-loss SEC teams not being in the playoff right up until the postseason games started to be played. My math-challenged summary of the FPI and this ranking: Garbage In, Garbage Out.
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Sources Say B1G Eyeing 24 Or 28 CFP
This has been floated out there by the B1G. 26 to 28 teams in the PO, but several games would be the final week of the regular season, Playoff Play-in games. The idea has been scorned by the usual anti-B1G subjects, among other things, as being a money grab. So, the B1G is roasted blocking expansion to 16 teams using the 5-11 format, criticized for wanting teams competing for the same prize playing the same number of conference games, criticized for wanting AQ spots for the two conferences with the most difficult in-conference slate of games, and will be criticized for any format suggested by the Big Ten. Beginning with Bill Hancock's warning that more than a two-team playoff would destroy college football, every time the college football playoff expands, the naysayers whine about it watering down the regular season, and more folks tune in to watch CFB, and CFB makes more money. The B1G's AQ playoff format lacks populist support, but the B1G has the money and the consequent leverage of continuing with a 12-team playoff and continuing to be No. 1 in the CFB financial arms race. if Greg Sankey wants to protect Kentucky's path to a meaningless bowl game, then so be it.
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There's Bias and then There's the Updated FPI Rankings
This is the stuff Greg Sankey uses to justify staying with 8 conference games. Sankey and ESPN should be embarrassed by this tripe. 2025 College Football Power Index - ESPN SEC - Six of the top 10, including the top three. But for the five highest-seeded conference champions being included in the Playoff field, nine of the 12 Playoff teams would come from the SEC, including No. 8 Tennessee. No. 12 LSU would be replaced by No. 34 Boise State. Number 11 South Carolina would be replaced by No. 18 Kansas State, and No. 10 Ole Miss would be replaced by No. 16 (!) Clemson. 12 SEC teams are in the top 25, along with six B1G teams, three ACC, and three B12 teams, and Notre Dame. AP No. 4 Clemson fell from No. 15 in the FPI to No. 22. AP No. 10 Miami fell from FPI No. 9 to No. 17. AP No. 24 Tennessee is now FPI's No. 8-ranked team. AP No. 21 Ole Miss is now FPI's No. 10-ranked team, and AP No. 8 Alabama is now ranked 3rd in the FPI. Did I miss something? Did Clemson QB Cade Klubnik and Miami QB Carson Beck decide to skip the 2025 season and prepare for the draft? Is Nico back at QB for Tennessee? Is Bama QB Ty Simpson on par with the anointed Archie? OBD ranked 7th by the AP, is also ranked 7th by the FPI. Why? I am Clue and Less. Any Dixiecrat who uses these Faulty Prediction Index rankings to justify anything having to do with the It Just Means More folks should be sent to their room without their hush puppies and grits. ๐คฌ
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Michigan Keeps It's Title....Loses 30 Million
More on Moore and Michigan's Appeal to the NCAA - Michigan football is fighting back against the NCAA even as questions linger FYI, the NCAA cited Tennessee with 200 violations. 18 of the violations were Level One violations. Michigan - 11 violations; six Level One violations.
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The Bobcats are an FCS Team, But ...
Even with a heavy dose of roster turnover (sound familiar), Montana State is ranked 2nd in the FCS preseason top 25 poll. Last season, Idaho was ranked 4th in the FCS preseason poll and ... FCS Football Rankings - Stats Perform FCS Top 25 | NCAA.com
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Michigan Keeps It's Title....Loses 30 Million
Thanks, Gat. I think the fine, according to B1G Ten Network coverage, may be closer to $25 million, still a lot of money. Michigan was also hit with recruiting restrictions over the next four seasons. The NCAA appears to be over the nonsense of changing wins into losses. (Thank goodness. Otherwise, as the good Doctor points out, UW fans would rush to claim the 2023-24 championship.) Interesting thoughts on South Carolina. Was this injury proved up by the Gamecocks? Part of the financial hit and four-year prohibition is a result of Jim Harbaugh's escape to the NFL, ala Pete Carroll, and current HC Moore deleting his calls from his cell phone; a/k/a lack of cooperation. I do not want to turn everything that happens in CFB into a B1G versus SEC battle but when I compare these sanctions to what was handed down to Tennessee not long ago, this seems to be over the top. Tennessee, before NIL, and under Jeremy Pruitt, was found by the NCAA to be paying recruits and players on the roster, a direct pay-for-play scheme that resulted in a 'death penalty' judgment for SMU. No doubt paying players before NIL happened was the number 1 no-no on the NCAA's Hit Parade. Paying players to sign with your school directly benefits the payor program. Did Michigan win a game on its way to a title because it stole signs? Would Michigan not have finished the season undefeated? Many who follow CFB were surprised that the NCAA prohibited in-person scouting. (As for cooperation with the NCAA, the Big Ten sat Jim Harbaugh for three games in 2023, on the way to Michigan's title. Tony Petitti and B1G HQ filed a 'brief' on behalf of Michigan with the NCAA that noted the Harbaugh sanctions.) Tennessee was fined $8 million and was hit with recruiting sanctions less onerous than the sanctions handed to Michigan. Yet again, the NCAA seems to hold teams outside of the Southeast to a higher standard. Compare Miami's pay-for-play sanctions to SC's penalties for one player receiving excess benefits. Two decades of academic fraud at UNC were OK with the NCAA because 'regular students' as well as 'student athletes' cheated. How about the time, or lack thereof, it took the NCAA to sanction Oregon for using a third party outside the program to assist with recruiting? No schools in the SEC were using 'runners' to help with recruiting, right? Michigan did avoid a postseason ban, but Michigan, at least in part, will appeal these sanctions first to the NCAA, and after being denied relief by the NCAA, will likely file an appeal in a court of law. One extra game of Moore sitting out is no big deal, but even for a Michigan program, a $20 million-plus fine directly from the football program's revenues and the restrictions placed on recruiting will not be accepted without protest. These sanctions affect not only Michigan but the entire B1G. The NCAA's over-the-top SC sanctions, at the same time the Pac-12 Network came online, did not help the Pac-12's long-term financial viability. Pac-12 fans outside of Troy, happy with SC's sanctions, were penny-wise and pound-foolish. Games and championships matter, of course, but today, money matters equally if not more. I fully expect others on the Forum to disagree with my POV, which is, of course, fine. But the B1G is in a financial race with other conferences, and these IMO over-the-top sanctions on one of the B1G's biggest brand names do not help the B1G conference in any respect. Thanks for the post.
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Oregon also opens 2025 at No. 7 in the AP Poll, receives first-place vote
I'm not certain this is a B1G Bold Prediction, but I do agree that OBD will be PO back! Oregon Ducks, Dan Lanning Receive Bold Big Ten Prediction
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The Truth Emerges: What REALLY Happened at the Rose Bowl...
Thank you, Charles. Nice opening gambit by Chip, but where was the response? IMO, this no-show is on the entire coaching staff from the Chief on down. In addition to Chip's adjustments, equally important IMO was the adjustments Jim Knowles made on defense. Caleb Downs moved up from safety and was a wrecking ball. The O-line that played well against TOSU in Autzen was manhandled in Pasadena. I don't think this happened as a result of strength and conditioning training post-Michigan. It will be fascinating to watch the White Out chess match. Next (Nest?) case. Onward and upward!
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B1G Ten Network (BTN) Fall Camp Coverage Alert
6 PM Pacific tonight, the BTN crew visits Eugene. Based on program visits to date, this is well worth watching. Go Ducks!
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B1G Surprise: Oregon, West Coast Teams Dominate Big-10
USC, due to volume, has the No. 1, to date, 2026 recruiting ranking. But what team is mining recruiting gold? OBD, of course! ๐ On3 - The ten teams with the highest percentage of 2026 Blue Chip recruits - 1. OREGON - 88% 2. LSU - 78% / A&M - 78% 4. Georgia - 77% 5. Notre Dame - 74% / Florida 74% 7. Miami - 73% 8. Texas - 71% 9. USC - 69% ๐ 10. the Ohio State University - 67% It's nice that a mainstream CFB site recognizes Coach Lanning and friends ' recruiting prowess. How many CFB fans would know that Oregon has the highest number of Blue-Chip recruits to date? The media is all over Oregon commits who decommit, but not when top recruits commit. Win a Natty! Beginning with a roundup of Bob's Cats.
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B1G Surprise: Oregon, West Coast Teams Dominate Big-10
Who in the ๐คฌinvited these guys to the party? Before 2024, we had to go to Pasadena to get our B1G butts kicked ๐.
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I Think This is Too Funny to Bury in Another Thread
Man, is that balled-up or what? ๐ The other day, a UNC grad golfing buddy told me there is confusion in Chapel Hill. No one knows if walk-on Jordon Hudson is going to play wide receiver or tight end. ๐ค
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OFF TOPICS: For Your Interest (7)
Hail to the Victors Valiant? No postseason ban, which means sighs of relief coming out of Ann Arbor. Michigan receives NCAA sanctions for sign-stealing: Sherrone Moore suspended three games, hefty fine levied, more Michigan's fine totals @$20 million. Before NIL, Tennessee was fined $8 million for paying players. If you're going to cheat, do it south of the Mason-Dixon.
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Ross Dellinger of Yahoo Delves into the Ways to Beat the Revenue Sharing Cap
Thank you, Steven. I like Ross Dellinger's reporting, but there are a few gaps in this article, beginning with the state of Tennessee. The Tennessee legislature passed a law signed into law by the governor that prohibits the enforcement of the House settlement in the Volunteer State. (Freudian slip? I originally spelled it: Hose Settlement ๐) Kentucky's athletic department is now a limited liability company (LLC). Except in very rare cases, damages against an LLC are limited to the assets held by the LLC. The university itself, in theory, will not be liable if its athletic department runs amok. Alabama, among other schools, is holding back NIL information, claiming that doing so would violate the athletes' federal right of privacy. The folks at Bama were not aware of this when their commissioner, Greg Sankey, was touting the settlement. Right? After a short period of rejecting all NIL collective deals, NIL Go, the review committee, after being reminded by the House plaintiff attorneys that this was not the deal, backed off. NIL collectives and deals arranged by and between members of a collective are not, ipso facto, verboten. The House settlement provides that all NIL deals with public companies are kosher, except for public companies found to be 'boosters.' Marketing deals with 3rd parties are not new; what is new is the ability via NIL to share the revenue with the players. In the 12 months from Judge Wilkin's approval of the settlement, $20.5 million is the cap that schools can revenue share with their 'student athletes.' Revenue directly shared with any source cannot go over this limit. Dellinger failed to note this salient fact. So, many of the defendants, the once Power 5 conferences' subsidiaries, their member programs, had no intention of following the terms of the settlement and were actively planning ways of looping holes in the terms of the settlement before its approval. Maybe the Pac-2's Theresa Gould was not aware of this, but the other commissioners? Without a collective bargaining agreement between the athletes and 'management,' however defined, the NCAA and its members will not be granted relief from litigation. The Power 5 conferences and the NCAA could and should have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization and found relief from litigation in a federally approved Plan of Reorganization. The House settlement is one more futile attempt by the NCAA to prevent college athletes from being found to be 'employees', even though they are being paid directly by their respective universities. It's simply more NCAA Male Bovine Excrement of Form, as defined by the NCAA over Substance as defined by the world at large, including courts of law. The Emperor has no clothes! Rob Mullens and other intelligent ADs, the leaders of universities, and their legal counsel, cannot see this?
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Lanning Thinks our OL is Better This Year!
This ranking names OBD's O-line the 4th-best in the conference heading into 2025. Power ranking all 18 Big Ten offensive lines from worst to first Now, Wait a Minute! OBD plays No. 1 Penn State and No. 2 Iowa, so the jury is out before the B1G champ game on 12/6/25. Oregon's O-line gels and plays to its potential, and the starting five could all be drafted in 2026.
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2025 BIG Info, Predictions, Etc. (9)
Fox names the top 10 B1G football players in 2023. 3 Nits, 2 Bucks, and 2 Ducks - Quack! Who Are The 10 Best Players in The Big Ten Entering The 2025 Season? I wonder what the list will look like on Judgement Day, 12/7/25, when the PO committee releases its final ranking.
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Lanning Thinks our OL is Better This Year!
It's not how you start, but an entire body of work. A body of work where OBD went 13-0, the only P4 team to do so, and captured a B1G title. Both OTs were drafted, Conerly in the 1st round and Cornelius in the 6th. The O-line was a finalist for the Joe Moore, best college O-line, award. The QB the line blocked for was a Heisman Trophy finalist. Give me this, please, season after season. The Rose Bowl loss stings, but that was a perfect storm team effort from Dan Lanning down to the student managers, coupled with a since-eradicated horse bleep PO format.