Jon Joseph

OK and OH ST are on 'upset alert' because both play ranked teams. Oregon is on upset alert because it plays in 1 score games and rarely blows out lesser opponents, like it did CU. For the most part the experts at The Athletic and ESPN among others, predict OR over WSU. I have not seen any of the better known prediction 'machines' predict a 50% or better chance that OR runs the table and makes the final 4. The biggest boost to the Ducks PO chances came Tuesday night when Utah was ranked 24. I expect Utah to easily win at AZ and many the team ranked 15 to 23 have a good chance of losing this weekend. Now, we need OR ST to destroy Stanford and maybe move into the top 25? A loss by OK would materially benefit the Ducks.

Good stuff, thanks. I'm not in favor of Norvell, he just seems to be coming up on a # of sites as the new guy at WSU? With the coach openings today across the country and more likely coming, I think we are going to see some big name HC musical chairs? Jimbo or Mel Tucker to LSU will set a lot of wheels in motion. Franklin moving on could also have a big impact? I do not see LSU hiring a G5 coach. SC? If SC goes G5 it will likely be the hire of Fickell who is of course headed for B12, P5 status. And really, is SC today that great of a job? Leach being picked off by the SEC and Tucker by the B1G is just a sign of things to come. This year a successful USC T+F coach and the AZ baseball coach have been picked off by the SEC. Oregon witnessed a softball coach head to Texas. The Pac-12 does not have the money and/or the desire to pay the going freight for big time CFB coaches. But that doesn't excuse the hiring of a guy like Fisch at AZ and Dorrell at CU. Bryan Harsin was right next door before being plucked by Auburn. Mario is a bargain and if he can make it to the PO this season he will deserve another raise. Soon, a B1G or SEC team will be tossing big bucks at Mario. Probably not Miami, not enough $ in Coral Gables. But when not if, Mullen is let go at Florida, watch out. Florida can and will write a big check. Mario is a guy raised in Florida who coached for The Guru in the SEC. Stay at Oregon or compete in the biggest arena? Stay and recruit to Eugene or to Florida, a school located in a recruiting hotbed. Mario would make Mullen's recruiting look like a joke. Mario would make $7M per year, at least, at UF. I don't think Oregon would be willing to come close, if it could, to $7M? You are spot on. P5 to P5 is rare. Even if a Pac-12 team wanted to hire a successful P5 coach, how many member schools could afford to do so?

WSU? Jay Norvell from Nevada? When was the last time a conference team hired a currently employed successful P5 or NFL coach? Most conference teams do not have the $ to be able to hire a quality coach and many the administration simply do not care. This conference as currently structured and managed is toast. I hope that Oregon will not pledge its future media rights to the conference before Schill et al can see what kind of new media deal GK can put together. Oregon, UW, USC and ASU might well be better off joining the newly reconstituted B12? The 'new' B12 has teams ranked at 5, 10, 13 and 14. Houston is a 1L team. Iowa State is very competitive. TCU, Texas Tech, K ST and W VA are all better than the bottom half of the teams in the Pac-12. The new B12 with these additions would be a 16 team conference stretching from coast to coast. A West Division of these 4 Pac-12 teams plus BYU, OK ST, KS and K ST would afford reasonable travel for non-revenue sports. With this structure, particularly with 4 teams in Texas, I can see FOX bringing a B12 network to the table and owning and operating the network in the same excellent manner in which it owns and operates the B1G network. I see no upward mobility for the Pac-12 as currently managed and as currently structured.

They also left to places that routinely send large #s of guys to the NFL.

In the years the RB is not a PO site, it is not a ceiling to play there, it is reaching the top of the basement stairs.

Utah is ranked.

Great article and comments. Mario is re-shaping Oregon. But the conference? Urban Meyer changed recruiting in the B1G from being a gentlemen's club to being all out war. This lifted not only Ohio State but the entire conference. This has not been the case in the Pac-12 with conference teams not following Mario's excellent recruiting. Today with Utah at 24 the Pac-12 does have 2 teams ranked. Compared to not so long ago, this is pathetic. And Oregon is again on the thinnest of Playoff ice. The B1G has 3 teams ranked in the top 10 and 6 in the top 25. The B1G unlike the SEC, values academics. How did the Pac-12 fall so far behind the B1G in revenue and on-field play? Bad leadership out west compared to great leadership back east is one of the reasons. Terrible media deals out west compared to the B1G network and broadcast deals. Mario's recruiting has changed the league; but only in the Ducks favor. Today, Mario is the only Pac-12 HC bringing in quality recruits. But Mario's recruiting efforts to date has not equaled the expected on field results. In 2019 the Ducks should have been in the PO instead of matching up with a 3L team in the Rose Bowl. Sorry but when the RB is not a PO semifinal site it is an exhibition game. The best exhibition game but an exhibition game none-the-less. There really is no comparison to what Mario to date has done in a weak conference compared to what Dabo has accomplished at Clemson. It did take Dabo 4+ seasons to get the Tigers cranked up. Is Mario on a Clemson-like threshold? Maybe? But you can't lose to Stanford if you want to be great. And you need QB play like Clemson got from Watson and then Lawrence. So many spot on comments about the lack of quality play in the Pac-12. If you cannot recruit at the top level you will not play at the top level. The conference's OOC record in 2021 was absolutely putrid. Thus, the conference is viewed as slightly better, if that, than a G5 conference. I see no Urban-like B1G recruiting bump in this conference, I see teams allowing the best talent to head east. I see a functionally insolvent network hurting recruiting. I see football budgets insufficient to compete at the highest P5 level. I sense that many of the 'leaders' of conference schools could care less about football and sports in general. I see apathy among many the Pac-12 fan base. I see a conference sending fewer and fewer guys onto the NFL. I see a conference seemingly incapable of being in the mix for the CFB championship. I see a conference that had the chance to grow its market size and, no surprise, did nothing. In the long run 1 extra P5 OOC game a year will not be all that lucrative. Moving into the central time zone and into football mad Texas? Correct, Alabama was not built overnight. It took 1 season for Saban to start turning Bama around. After the first season Bama went 100 games without losing to an unranked opponent before losing this season at A+M, now ranked at 11, in College Station. This is far different than how the team has frequently performed under Mario. We frequently see Oregon play down to lesser competition, like Stanford. Oregon today is a big Duck in a small pond that continues to evaporate. Until Mario takes Oregon to Final 4's on a regular basis, he will not improve the conference; the Ducks modest success to date has done nothing to raise all conference boats. I am happy Mario is here, no doubt. He has improved and I trust will continue to improve Oregon football. But to get over the hump? Oregon needs some help from 'its friends.' Clemson does play in a bad football conference, but the ACC Network is owned by ESPN, 80,000 plus fans watch Clemson play in Death Valley, and Clemson does not kick off at 10:30 PM. Sorry for going somewhat OT. But it will take a Herculean effort to lift the conference from the doldrums and to date, I haven't seen much different from GK than we saw from Larry? In the long run, if the Pac-12 does not improve and if Oregon cannot raise Mario's salary to the $7M - $10M range, Mario will not be coaching in Eugene. FOR NOW? Beat Wazzu! Mario's true bona fides will come when he gets to and wins his first PO game.

Being the best lands you on one of the worst NFL teams. Lots of guys who bomb out with NLF team 1 do improve in a new situation. Jim Plunkett is an example. With the transfer portal, we will see this more often in college. Joe Burrow went from the bench to having one of the greatest CFB seasons of all time. Did anyone know who RB Kenneth Walker was when he was at Wake, before his transfer to Michigan State? A number of 'pretty good' QBs transferred to Oklahoma. I hope Mario has a person or 2 tracking and working the portal? Be surprised if this is not the case. Best transfer to Eugene to date? OL Long?

AMEN! Play man-to-man? How about no. Do this and WSU will kill you with its crossing patterns. I want to see lots of 3-1-7 playing an underneath zone with a deep safety. The 1, Noah Sewell is responsible for spying on and blowing up, Borghi. One nice thing about the article, the WSU QB has been pressured and sacked often this season. So yeah, mix it up. But playing a whole lot of man to man coverage against this O is asking for trouble.

I think it's 50/50? A very bad look not to give an African-American coach at least 2 years. Lost of circumstances involved but Lake had a very good 2020. And Lake has fired his very unpopular OC, Donovan. If UW fires Lake I hope it is smart enough to also fire AD, Jen Cohen. Scott Woodward, current LSU AD, brought coach Pete to Seattle, not Cohen. Cohen's basketball and football hires have not been good. As I noted earlier today, if UW does fire Lake I'd give Bronco Mendenhall a serious look. Although taking a guy from UVA could violate The Alliance handshake deal?

Exactly my friend. It's not just the $6M for a final 4 appearance the SEC pulls down every year, it is also about the $4M that come with a NY6 Bowl invite. The SEC puts 3 teams plus in NY6 bowls every season. But as noted above with The Run For The Roses thought, it will mean less $ but other than that, a big 'that' no doubt, there is no reason for The Alliance to play in the SEC/ESPN sandbox. An 8 team Alliance + ND post season tournament will still bring in the big bucks from more than 1 bidder. If ND is in the mix NBC will likely want to be in the mix. FOX is a no brainer and CBS after losing the SEC broadcast rights would also be interested. Possibly even Turner would come to the table? Set the season and tourney up to conclude on 1/1 with the champ game played in the Rose Bowl. CFB should conclude on 1/1 and in the Rose Bowl and not some place like Santa Clara. 3 conference champs and 5 AL without a limit on the # of teams a conference can send. I think with 5 AL spots and the B12 and SEC not involved that ND would be fine with this approach.? Under the proposed 12 team model ND could never be ranked higher than 5. But I would make ND, if it didn't become a full time ACC football member, play 13 games.

Based on the above IMHO the rivalry is not dead. It is out of balance as it has been before. But it is still a bitter rivalry between the 2 fan bases. Kind of like Michigan/Ohio State these days.

I'll go with 3 of his 4. In 2001, the computers royally screwed the Ducks. Computer input is all subject to GIGO. IF a computer formula is to be used the programming parameters have to be disclosed. But another change that should happen, especially with the AAC losing 3 teams to the B12, share the big boy $ with the G5 but hold a separate PO for the P5 and the G5. My idea, the ACC, Notre Dame, B1G and Pac-12 hold their own postseason Run For The Roses Tournament.

Thank you! I was just about to correct this error. Stanford comparative scores should be interesting? OR ST should truck Stanford.

2022 will be Flowe's 3rd season out of HS. Hopefully the Ducks will have Flowe's services for all of 2022. If healthy I imagine he goes pro in 2023? Looking way ahead but Flowe will be needed vs UGA in 2022. Too bad he will not be able to play vs UGA in 2021, right?

A dream scenario before Oregon tees it up? Cincinnati takes a loss at USF Friday night. Doubtful. But more likely? Cincy struggles to cover against a bad USF team? Notre Dame at UVA and Oklahoma at Baylor both take Ls. THIS could happen. Michigan suffers a loss at Penn State. Ohio State blows out Purdue. It would be a shock if it didn't happen but Utah needs to win convincingly at AZ. And SOS wise, it would be nice if the Beavers defeat ASU in Corvallis. Other than that Santa, I want nothing except of course, a W against WSU.

The Committee is in a pickle regarding Cincy if the Bearcats don't drop a game in 2021? But the CT did not help Cincy's cause; no other AAC team is ranked. Also, a loss by ND at UVA could bury Cincy's hopes? It's pretty darn clear from all the chatter that the ESPN folks want 2 SEC teams and little guy Cincy in the PO? Cincy is one contender who will not finish with a better SOS than the Ducks.

The poor pooch looks like he has watched too many of Charles' kitty videos?

I sure hope those Michigan State Troopers can find the CT members who are confused and lost in the great state of Michigan? Get ready for the Michigan schools to flip again in the Week 3 PO CT rankings? Sparty at Maryland has a far easier row to hoe than does 'big brother' at Penn State. 1. UGA -20 at NR TN - 3:30 CBS Georgia should win in Knoxville. But VOLS QB Herndon Hooker, who Portal-ed in from Va Tech, is the 4th ranked passer in the nation. This is likely the best O the terrific UGA D will have faced this season. Josh Heupel in year 1 is doing a heck of a job at TN. 4 OHIO STATE -20 vs #19 PURDUE - 3:30 ABC How Giant of a Giant-Killer can Giant-Killer Purdue be, 2 years prior to 2023? How the Bell will the Boilermaker's O look against an OH ST D that has had issues in 2021? The Purdue D shut down then #2 Iowa on the road and last week put up 497 yards of O on then #3 MI ST. This could be verrrry interesting? I expect a shoot out and not a Buckeyes blow out. 6 MICHIGAN -1 at NR PENN STATE - Noon ABC PSU with a win against 17 Auburn among others, could easily be and probably should be ranked by the CT? I think PSU knocks off Michigan in Happy Valley? The B1G E has started beating itself up and it will continue to do so through November. 8 OKLAHOMA -5.5 at 13 BAYLOR - Noon FOX In 2021, Dave Aranda's Bears are 5-0 in Waco. Including Ws vs BYU, Iowa State and Texas. Baylor and its fans will be inspired to see Oklahoma, traitor Oklahoma, handed its 1st loss. If I bet this game I would take Baylor +5.5. If OK wins, then there is no way an undefeated Sooners team should be ranked behind undefeated AAC team, Cincinnati. 9 NOTRE DAME -5.5 at NR VIRGINIA - 7:30 NBC If UVA QB Brennan Armstrong is healthy the Irish will be fortunate to escape this visit to Mr. Jefferson's University with the W. This game is big not only for the Irish to stay in the PO hunt, but also in respect to Cincinnati's SOS. Another Irish loss will not help the Bearcats in the least. BTW, with all of the CFB HC job openings, I'm somewhat surprised not to hear Beavers grad, Bronco Mendenhall's, name mentioned? If Chip is let go I think Mendenhall would be a great hire for UCLA? IMO he would also be a big improvement at UW? 11. TEXAS A+M -2.5 at 15 OLE MISS - 7 ESPN If I was to tell you that one of these teams leads the nation with 34 sacks in 2021, which team would you think that would be? I was fooled too, thinking that it had to be A+M? But it is Ole Miss who leads the league in QB sacks. I do not believe that A+M has the fire power to stay with the prolific Ole Miss O in Oxford? More of a sweat SEC W wise for Bama if A+M with the tiebreaker over Bama, if both have 2Ls, wins this game. The Tide own the tiebreaker vs Ole Miss. 3 OREGON (Give It UP!) -13.5 vs NR WASHINGTON STATE - 10:30 ESPN Amazingly, this game could be for the Pac-12 N title? WSU is no push over. No team has blown out WA ST this season and WSU easily could have defeated BYU and has defeated Oregon State. That this game does not kick off until 10:30 eastern time frankly SUCKS! This is another game the 'experts' back east take for granted as a Ducks W, which is simply wrong. These 2 teams have a history of playing close games. 10 OK ST wins at NR TCU Saturday and it will be a well respected win. Ducks win this game by less than a blow out and it could be a reason, assuming OH ST defeats Purdue handily, for the CT to move the Bucks over the Ducks? It's kind of a no win game for the Ducks, which no one east of Idaho will be watching. But a win by the Ducks and a win by Utah at Arizona will set up a top 25 matchup in Salt Lake City. And hopefully a friendlier KO time? GO DUCKS!

I hope its boring. I hope the Ducks run the ball like the Ducks did in Seattle once gaining decent field position, drain the clock and keep WSO off the field. I also hope on D that the Ducks play a lot of 3-1-7 underneath zone? Clog those receiving lanes. No matter how many points the Ducks put up vs the Cougars it won't impress the 'experts' back east, many of whom will not be watching the game.

Be true to your school or to Mammon? If OSU continues to show steady growth, an AD somewhere will be tossing more $ at JS than OR ST can possibly match.

OT - but former Pac-12 player and coach, Jim Mora, is the new HC at UCONN. Best of luck Jimmy.

Let's see if Mario can pull a player like MI ST RB Walker, out of the portal? Tapping the portal at the RB position certainly worked for Chip and is working for Whittingham at Utah. The Utes QB transfer from TX out of the portal is also working out quite well for the Utes. Really good article but in this day and age of CFB free agency a team's roster in January might be materially different come spring? In 2021, MI ST brought in 40 guys from the portal and vastly improved from 2020. 7 of#13 Baylor's starters came out of the portal. Baylor won 2 games in 2020.

Cost The Pirate the game at Memphis. Arguably cost MI a win at MI ST. Cost Oregon the game at Stanford which may cost the conference $6M.

SOS you cannot control. SOR and game dominance you can control. I do not see the OH ST W on the road being less than a top 10 win when the final poll is released. OR cannot control the public's POV regarding the Pac-12. Oregon covered on the road last week on the road in terrible weather conditions. Bama and Cincy did not cover at home. OH ST did not cover at Nebraska. Yet according to The Experts, all 4 teams scrapped by last Saturday. Just win, but I hope Mario 'gets' that with the Ducks SOS style points matter.