National Pundit’s USC Playoff Pick Hinges on Getting Past Oregon

Oregon’s 2026 schedule is once again drawing national attention — this time as the reason one prominent college football voice is skeptical of a bold prediction for USC. According to Trojans Wire, Knoxville News-Sentinel columnist John Adams picked USC to make the College Football Playoff this season, but his USA TODAY Sports colleague Blake Toppmeyer pushed back hard, pointing directly at the Trojans’ matchup with the Ducks as a major obstacle.

The two writers exchanged playoff predictions ahead of the 2026 season, with Adams going out on a limb for Lincoln Riley’s program. Toppmeyer’s response was blunt, calling the pick a mistake and citing USC’s brutal slate as the reason it won’t happen. He specifically listed Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana as the gauntlet standing between USC and a playoff berth, according to Trojans Wire.

Oregon Looms Large in USC’s Playoff Math

For Oregon fans, the mention is a reminder of just how much weight the Ducks carry in other programs’ playoff conversations. USC has not made the College Football Playoff since the event began in 2014, going 0-for-12 across the four-team and now expanded formats, per Trojans Wire. Riley has come up empty in each of his four seasons in Los Angeles, and the pressure to finally break through is mounting.

Toppmeyer’s skepticism isn’t rooted in doubting USC’s talent level — he even acknowledged that a lot of returning production and a potentially improved defense under Gary Patterson give the Trojans a chance. But he made clear that games against the Big Ten’s toughest competition, Oregon chief among them, are what will likely keep USC out of the field again.

A Rivalry Still Finding Its Footing

USC and Oregon have quickly become one of the more consequential matchups in the Big Ten’s West Coast era, and this latest exchange between national writers only reinforces how much that game could shape the conference and playoff picture. If Adams’ prediction is going to come true, USC will likely need to get past a Ducks team that has been a fixture in playoff and championship conversations of its own.

USC’s overall drought since Pete Carroll’s departure has been well documented, with the 2016 and 2017 seasons under Sam Darnold — capped by a Rose Bowl win and the program’s only conference title since Carroll left — standing as the lone bright spots. Whether Riley can change that narrative in 2026 may come down in large part to what happens when USC lines up against Oregon.

Related: Oregon Projected as No. 6 Seed, Bounced by Notre Dame in CFP Quarterfinals

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