Brett McMurphy of On3 put out his Preseason Top-25 and he listed the No. 1 team in the nation as....

1. Oregon

Since 2023, Oregon is 38-0 against teams that did not reach the national title game. Unfortunately, they’re 0-5 against title game participants, losing to 2023 runner-up Washington (twice), 2024 champ Ohio State and 2025 Indiana (twice). Those 38 wins are the nation’s most in the past three years....

When Lanning loses a rare game...it is not to chumps.

Bear Alexander blocks a third down pass!

40-0 against teams that have won less than 10 games and 8-8 against 10 or more win teams, his first four years as HC. For comparison, Smart in his first 4 years was 36-6 and 8-6 and Day was 34-0 and 8-6, both two years away from their first NC.

Dan's losses so far have been to teams finishing AP number #1, #1 #1,#1, #2, #2, #8, and #17. Those two close losses to number #8 and #17 were that first season after Nix took a shot to his leg late in game 10 that left him hobbled the rest of the season. Leaving out the Georgia disaster in the opener, Oregon's offense had averaged 46.6 points and 551.6 yards in 9 pre-Nix injury games, post-Nix injury it fell to 27.3 and 408.7 the final 3 games (and quite possibly no:

Downs

4 plays, 8 yards, 1:41

Field Goal

4 plays, 8 yards, 0:35

on 11/12/2022).

Dan Lanning just turned 40 like 3 months ago. When Cignetti turned 40 he was joining Chuck Amato's staff at NC State and going to work with a young Philip Rivers. When Saban turned 40 he was in the NFL and about 4 years away from taking his first major college HC job with Michigan State.

Dabo was starting his first full year as HC at Clemson, 8 years away from his first NC, and Day in his first year as HC at tOSU, 6 years away from his first NC. In the history of college football, I only found 4 coaches that won a NC before 40, and only one in the last 50 years (Danny Ford Clemson in 1981). All four are in the College football Hall-of-Fame (Danny Ford, Bud Wilkinson, Knute Rockne, and Barry Switzer). Those 4 coaches had a career record of 529-129-18 (0.80%), and 10 National Championships. No NC yet for Dan, but 48-8 is (0.86%). He seems right on schedule.**

** Bob Stoops almost blows my little thing here about winning NC before 40 up, winning his first NC at Oklahoma at age 40 in 2000 and in his second season as head coach, but not quite 🙂

** Don't quote me on all this I'm not 100% and got kinda tired of looking it all up, but am sort of confident in it 🙂

Thank you, AnotherOD, for a deeper dive into Dan's record. Much appreciated.

Dan is 15-8 against AP Top 25 opponents. 5-4 vs Top 10, 1-3 vs Top 5.

Ryan Day is 27-11 against Top 25 opponents. 16-10 vs Top 10. 8-7 vs Top 5.

In seven seasons as the HC at Ohio State, Day has played more Top 25 opponents than Dan did in his two seasons in the Pac-12.

Dan's three Top-5 losses: Champion Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and twice in 2025 to champion Indiana. The one win was against Ohio State in Autzen.

James Franklin is 4-21 against Top 10 opponents. Matt Campbell is 4-7. Matt Rhule is 0-11. Kirk Ferentz is 31-60.

The reason Nick Saban is the GOAT: Seven National Championships.

HC at Toledo, Michigan State, LSU, and Alabama: 48-25 vs Top 10 (.667) and 30-16 vs the Top 5 (.652).

It's not easy, but to be the best, you have to beat the best. And today, no program can stack talent like Saint Nick did at Bama.

Thanks again!

Beating the best in this era means beating your best as well. Kirby has struggled now that the field is equal. Saban left before he had to taste it multiple years. That doesn't mean they wouldn't ever raise a trophy. Both those coaches are masters of the game. There are only 4 active coaches that have won a title and have a shot at getting another this year. Let's just take the Power 4 teams. That's 4 out of 68? Let's dig deeper and include only those programs that really test the best. What? Maybe 15? That's roughly 25 percent of the field. You know, the usual statistics (20% of the field produces 80% of the performance).

I personally believe the OL that was good enough to win a title was Lanning's first. He had a mediocre defense and nowhere near the WRs he has now. That OL unit put some serious rush yards on one of the best college football's defenses of all time. They pass protected even better. They didn't have guys that could burn teams like Ohio State (circa 2024) and Georgia (circa 2023 and 2022). They had em last year (not a good enough OL) and they have em this year (we'll have to wait and see). So what Lanning has done with the limitations he has had relative to his fellow elite coaches is tremendous.

I still believe Ohio State and Georgia have the most talent THIS YEAR. So it will be Dante Moore playing like elite NFL QBs this year in my opinion. He is going to have to throw in some of the tightest windows-on time-before receivers even know they are open. And some of that will be coaching on a level above the NFL's best. My opinion of course. But that is what I see. And believe me-what Dan Lanning has done the past two years with talent I did not believe was capable of accomplishing what they did (to the degree I really thought they had a chance in the Peach Bowl despite the situation) is beyond incredible.

They guy is on the trail to winning a title. And I am not fantasizing when I say that.

What Mike said! I'm a fan. Mike West, Charles, the Coach, David Marsh, and others on the Forum are fans and analysts, and it is terrific to get their POV.

Mike, thanks for pointing out what I have pondered since Indiana defeated Miami on Miami's home field to win one of the most out-of-nowhere titles in the history of not just football but across all sports.

How ironic would it have been for Indiana to have lost late by doing un-Indiana-like things?

An All-American tackle draws a false start penalty. Otherwise, Indiana is odds-on to run out the clock. (But the FG, and not a 1st down or two, did cover some folks I know. 😍)

Then, a D lineman does a Miami-like thing and, very late in the game, roughs the passer. This is exactly how Miami lost at SMU last season.

Such oddities can waste a superior team effort and turn an entire game. Ergo, Mike, your excellent point about the vagaries of coaching. A coach can have his team ready to play, push all the right buttons, and still lose, especially to teams with equal talent and coaching, at every level.

Ask Pete Carroll, Beast Mode, Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and Malcolm Butler. (Malcolm Butler?)

I read 'It's Natty or Bust' for Oregon this season and shake my head, plus 🤬.

As other Forum Friends have noted, one team will conclude its 16th or 17th game of the season and be happy coming off the Allegiant Stadium field in Las Vegas. One team only.

Will it be Our Beloved Ducks? I certainly hope so. If not, this is not the last quality Oregon team that Dan Lanning will put on the field. No Natty? Dan and the coaching staff are not going to quit. The excellent players who are flocking to Eugene are not going to quit. And Oregon fans are not going to quit.

BEAT BOISE!