Don’t tear up those tickets to Indianapolis just yet!

We just experienced an October stretch that felt like a certified nightmare. The team felt like it was in chaos, the ship was rudderless, and all that was left was to smack the proverbial iceberg!

Now, I'm NOT saying everything is fixed, far from it. But watching college football this weekend showed me that there is no "unbeatable" team out there. Miami BARELY survived UNC. Yes, Miami is undefeated, but they have yet to play a ranked opponent!!!

Oregon’s win over Northwestern, combined with a little Big Ten chaos, has left the door cracked open for a run at the Big Ten title game.

At 3-2 in conference play, the Ducks are still mathematically alive. The margin for error is exactly zero, but the roadmap is clear. Here is what Oregon needs to do to keep the dream alive:

1. Beat the Buckeyes

The path starts with a only a simple task: defeating Ohio State on their own turf next weekend. Thanks to USC, Ohio State now has a blemish in conference play. If Oregon pulls off the upset, they will jump the Buckeyes in the standings and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

2. Run the November Gauntlet

Beating Ohio State means nothing if the Ducks stumble afterward. Oregon must win out against Michigan, Michigan State, and Washington to finish the regular season at 7-2 in Big Ten play.

3. Let the "Strength of Schedule" Math Do the Work

If Oregon finishes 7-2, they will likely find themselves in a multi-team tiebreaker scenario with programs like Indiana, USC, or Ohio State. Oregon's grueling schedule becomes their secret weapon.

The Big Ten's tiebreaker heavily weighs the cumulative conference win percentage of a team's opponents. Because the Ducks have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation, their metric profile gives them a massive statistical edge to win a tiebreaker and potentially schedule that Indy trip.

The climb is steep, we don't have much to pin "hope" on right now, and interim play-caller Jay Johnson's newly energized offense will have to be perfect. However, We don't need to be first, we just need to be good enough to get there.

Maybe, just maybe, this October nightmare will be something that OBD wake up from and realize that they control their own destiny.

Edited 2 hours ago2 hr by Ktmguy2018

Win out and hope that either UCLA or Indiana collapses.

If we win out, we need help in this way:

Indiana has one conference loss, so we need them to accumulate one more. A loss to USC would be fabulous (which I think is their next game) because that puts them at 2 conference losses.

Both would be to teams that we have beaten so OBD would own the tiebreaker.

UCLA has no losses and would own the head to head against us, I "think" they would have to drop 3 of their next 4.

Again, moot point if OBD doesn't win out, but there is some hope to be had!

Edited 43 minutes ago43 min by Ktmguy2018

I love the optimistic outlook on this........

True, loyal ODB fans will appreciate that optimism. Those that jumped off the bandwagon, not so much.

Sometimes obstacles are too difficult to overcome. Or the odds are stacked too heavy in the other direction.

Just a few things need to happen to make this a reality.

First, somebody needs to beat Indiana to hang that 2nd loss on the Hoosiers. Go USC????

Second, somebody needs to beat Illinois, so they have a 3rd loss.

Third, the Ducks must win out. OBD's strength of schedule will be critical in tie breakers.

UCLA must win out. A 2 point, self inflicted loss to a top 5 team will strengthen the Ducks schedule number.

This is a possible scenario in this years chaos in college football.

The only intangible in my mind is how up are the players to do the one thing that is in their control? Win out.

I would love this to happen for a few reasons. First and foremost for DL, the staff, the players and the loyal fans.

Second, i would enjoy asking my so called Duck fan friends why they gave up on OBD's. The team hasn't quit, why have the fans?

My son, who lives just outside of Dallas, Texas, flies out for each home game. My friends felt it wasn't worth driving down from Portland......GEEZ

Go Ducks! Prove them doubters, wrong!

Last night's team effort can beat any team the Ducks play.