Duck Fan 76

I saw some plays last year that raised my eyebrows more than a bit so I think there's reason to question the assumptions on a plug and play O-line. Coach Klemm (who I greatly respect) has the guys now and he is seemingly introducing some scheme shifts (with KD) that focus a bit more on the NFL style of O-line play. He discusses it below at 6:15 Bottom line, what I saw last year wasn't guys messing up an assignment so much as guys that struggled to get the right kind of push and open holes when it counted. His comments on lateral speed advantage are an apt criticism of PAC-12 playstyle. I'm hoping that Klemm has improved their technique to the point that Georgia's D-line is going to get a bit of a surprise Saturday with Oregon's run game.

Great grab! lol, in fairness to Tosh the spread mixed with the hurry up was a nightmare for defenses and they were pretty desperate to do anything to stop Oregon from hanging 70 points on them.

Agreed, Alabama is a storied CFB powerhouse but I meant literally in the 10 years before Saban (2007). Alabama AP finishes 1996-2006 (11th, NR, NR, 8th, 21st, NR, 11th, NR, NR, 8th, NR). Alabama AP finishes 2007-2021 (NR, 6th, 1st, 10th, 1st, 1st, 7th, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 8th, 1st, 2nd). Oregon wants to be Alabama, not Washington.

Excellent article! The top three of that talent ranking all have something in common, they consistently turn those rosters into wins! That's why they are THE preeminent teams in CFB. We don't have to beat Georgia to have a great season but Oregon DOES need to show that it's developing its talent and executing on the field. For a CFB program to be considered a success it needs to: 1) Develop its current talent 2) Recruit at a high level 3) Stay consistent and execute on the field Those three elements add up to wins, and most importantly quality wins. With consistent quality wins comes the playoffs and the truth is knocking one of the big three out in the championship is a BIG BIG deal. Consider just how long Georgia has been recruiting, developing and executing at a high level and they had to wait till just last year to get the big W. So what constitutes an Oregon win on Saturday? Talented recruits and players across the country seeing Oregon play above it's average star ranking and causing Georgia to have to work for the W. That's not a moral victory, that's the first battle in what hopefully is staff continuity here at Oregon. We can't continue to be a coaching stepping stones to "dream schools". We need Oregon to be the coaching dream school. Again I'm not arguing for moral victories here but in the current era of media dominated CFB Oregon needs to fight to be a "dream school" for coaches and players. Think about this for a second, what are SEC players going to think if Oregon makes Bo look like a top tier QB against Georgia? What does that do for Oregon in the transfer portal and in recruiting through the south? What does a dominate Oregon defense do for recruiting lineman in the SEC's backyard? I think Oregon will show very well against Georgia but the goal here is the real and perceived program trajectory. Not so? What did Alabama look like in the decade before Saban?

Nice! thanks for the correction.

I can't wait to read that one! If we can't run RPO doesn't that put us in a serious jam since KD is in the Norvell lineage?

Draw RPO maybe? They are gonna be hot to put Bo on his butt. Wildcat in obvious running situations. Like you said, I guess we will find out when everyone else does what the Oregon run attack looks like. RPO is kinda tricky with shifty defenses and Georgia is super shifty.

Excellent point, he definitely threw some poor balls but I just didn't feel that was was what kept Auburn out of the game. If anything their abysmal run game against an amazing Georgia defense was the key to their loss. What do you think the key to Oregon having success on the run will be? They don't have the mobile line like Alabama and I don't think size will be critical given how powerful the Georgia front is. I'm thinking Oregon's run game needs some scheme help to be effective on Saturday. It would be nice if KD kept some of the new run attack under wraps and can surprise Georgia early.

There's always plan "C" and we tell everyone Bo hit up the tanning beds...

I agree there is plenty of reason to be cautious with Bo but the film I watch tells me to be suspicious of the Auburn/SEC fan narrative. Here's an article written after Auburn's lopsided loss to Georgia last year. Bo Nix taking brunt of Auburn fan criticism after lopsided Georgia loss WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM Bo Nix was held to minus-16 rushing yards by Georgia's vaunted defense. BTW, the meanest tweet was definitely from Q: "If Bo Nix hadn’t accidentally beaten Oregon his freshman year he’d be selling McChickens right now". Here is the 11 minute highlight video of Georgia at Auburn last year. Georgia had 231 passing yards and 201 rushing. Auburn had 272 passing yards and 46 rushing. Bo's interception bounced off his receivers facemask for the pick. To me the key statistic (If there even is such a thing) was Bennet had a 66.7% completion rate with 11 yards per pass and Bo had a 55.8% completion rate for 6 yards per pass. For the Oregon game watch out for the Georgia run game to setup the play-action over the top. If Oregon key's on the run and our DB's bite on play-action there will be plenty of Georgia big plays. Those big plays get the offense in a catchup mode forcing bad throws and demoralizes players. Georgia is going to want to establish a 2:1 ratio of run plays to pass plays. Oregon's defense (and offense) needs to push Georgia out of that and into having to be aggressive with it's passing game to capitalize on its shifty blitz schemes. If Oregon's defense can do that, expect the wheels to come off the Georgia offense. Here is the highlights of the SEC championship last year and Georgia's only loss. Georgia had 340 passing yards and 109 rushing. Alabama had 421passing yards and 115 rushing. Bennet had a 60.4% completion rate with 7.1 yards per pass and Young had a 59.1% completion rate for 9.6 yards per pass. Bennet threw 2 legitimate interceptions. The first was in the third quarter when Georgia was down 17-31 and the second was a pick 6 early in the fourth. Alabama had 7 penalties for 85 yards, mostly pass interference. I'd like to see Oregon play clean but sometimes interference is a good way to stop those really big plays that can kill morale/momentum. Anybody know where the officiating team is coming in from? If it's SEC that could be an issue for Oregon as the SEC calls a slightly different game than the PAC. Let's hope it's the MAC.

I'm not really a believer in summary football statistics but here are the summarized stats for Bo, some 2021 comparison QB's and some recruiting stats that I think tells a bit of the story of Bo at Auburn. Stats taken from https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ Bo started at Auburn in: 2019 with a QB rating of 125, 377 attempts 57.6% 2542 yds, 16 TD’s and 6 int’s 2020 with a QB rating of 123.9, 357 attempts 59.9% 2415 yds, 12 TD’s and 7 int’s 2021 with a QB rating of 130, 323 attempts 61% 2294 yds, 11 TD’s and 3 int’s Stetson Benett: 2021 with a QB rating of 176.7, 287 attempts 64.5% 2862 yds, 29 TD’s and 7 int’s Bryce Young: 2021 with a QB rating of 167.5, 547 attempts 66.9% 4872 yds, 47 TD’s and 7 int’s Anthony Brown: 2021 with a QB rating of 141.0, 390 attempts 64.1% 2989 yds, 19 TD’s and 7 int’s The recent Gus Malzahn era at Auburn: 247 sports class recruiting rankings 2014 6th 2015 8th 2016 9th 2017 9th 2018 12th 2019 13th 2020 8th 2021 18th Auburn season outcome 2016 8-5 AP preseason NR AP finish 24th 2017 10-4 AP preseason 12th AP finish 10th 2018 8-5 AP preseason 9th AP finish NR 2019 9-4 AP preseason 16th AP finish 14th 2020 6-5 AP preseason 11th AP finish NR 2021 6-7 AP preseason NR AP finish NR When Bo started as a sophomore in 2019 the talented roster was ranked by 247 sports at 8, 9, 9, 12 (average rank 9.5). Auburn had a really good 2017 season and the media felt confident that Auburn in 2019 would be decent but not win the SEC and they ended up that way. 2020 is a bust by any measure but in 2021 Auburn had an average recruiting rank of 10.5 and the preseason poll had them not ranked and they ended up not ranked. Why would Auburn end up with a prediction of not ranked in 2021 with so much talent on the roster? Some of that is the gauntlet that is the SEC with Georgia and Alabama sitting atop the recruiting charts like they do. I think however Auburn was/is a serial underperformer and the reality is the Auburn teams weren't developing the way they should based on roster talent. Was that Bo's fault as the QB or was that a much larger team development problem? I think if it was Bo, Malzahn would have sat him pretty early but he clearly was their best option to win for the majority of the season. I think we will find out next Saturday if Bo was ultimately a failed recruit or if he was recruited into a failed system. If Ty starts then DL saw some serious deficits in Bo that weren't offset by live game experience. if Bo starts then DL has had the Spring and Fall to play catchup on developing him and likely deprogramming some bad football that Auburn was teaching. What say the OBDF?

I can't wait until the LA sports media starts writing about how amazing USC is in the BIG and forgets to even mention Ohio State. They must put something in the water in LA that makes the writers delusional. I really think USC is going to be Nebraska part deux for the Big. Great we added some history but when are you guys going to win games again? Hope all those local TV ads are worth every penny for them. I honestly doubt USCs defense will get them anywhere near the PAC championship, it's most likely Utah vs Oregon. Then again since it's now based on ratings an overated USC could edge out a 2 or 3 loss Utah and we could face them. If we do see them I would expect DL to put on a spectacle as a "see ya" statement for the BCS selection.

Great read! The Sewell family is class! I'm hoping Noah has a special special season, not just for the Ducks but for him. He deserves the absolute best.

Awesome article! I 100% agree that Oregon's defense will be focused on limiting the run production and containing an amazing TE set. That will be a tall order but I believe Oregon gets it done with amazing talent and superior scheming. DL has the advantage since he knows Smart AND Georgia's players. Oregon's offensive production against an amazing Georgia defense is the open question. If Bo plays disciplined patient football I believe Oregon's weapons and DLs understanding of the Georgia defense gives us the edge. No pressure Bo, just make good decisions. You don't have to be the best athlete on this field to win.

I had a number of similar thoughts crossing multiple threads so I thought I might throw them down and see what you all think. The Georgia game is winnable by Oregon! There's a few reasons I believe this other than the "any given Saturday" rule but the main reason is last years win at Ohio State. Last years win showed that Oregon's 1s are as good as anybody in CFB. We have slick Willie and MC to thank for that. There's good reason to have some hard feelings but we should acknowledge those two head coaches recently made this talent level possible. It's been a long time building the program and getting here has been hard fought but here we are. We have all the pieces for the National Championship that Phil has been aiming us at. We are not done growing and CFB isn't static but there aren't any excuses in the current period. The expectation is that Oregon competes for a national championship most years. That being said the Georgia game favors Georgia if we look at the rosters and last years performances. Utah showed us that we can't recruit our way to a national championship. The talented pieces need to come together so that the combination is more than the sum of individual pieces. What I've learned in the off-season is that the coaching staff has what it takes to put together an Oregon TEAM. They are in the process of doing so and we will know what this TEAMs potential is by game three. Oregon will not be perfect in game 1 but neither will Georgia. Oregon can win the game but that isn't the season. Oregon can win the PAC but that isn't the season. A successful season is DLs staff going one step further and fielding a TEAM that carries the brand of Oregon football. What I want is Oregon football to play at their potential. There in lies the rub. CFB has plenty of talented rosters but there's only a few that reach their actual potential. It's rare to come together and gel like that. I can accept an Oregon TEAM that competes and looses by the numbers against an Alabama. For me the season is an Oregon TEAM that really plays the game. A loosing season looks like last years Utah game. So two weeks out I'm an excited season ticket holder ready to cheer on Oregon rain or shine. Thankfully it only ever rains touchdowns in Autzen.

It's possible, but the most likely explanation is Bo. But then that's what would make it a great fake out. DL knows Georgia, what offense advantage does he have with Georgia in ball hawk mode? Quick passes and RPO?

To be fair the new defense is keyed on creating turnovers so it's somewhat of a double edged sword. Reading some of the interview it seems like DL was critical of players trying to create something from nothing. That can be a young RB with a spin move and poor ball security or a QB forcing passes into good coverage. If it's Bo then it's bad news that needs to be corrected quickly. Forcing balls in close games was one of his bad habits. I'm hoping this is DL trying to fake out Smart's scouting.

Here's DLs comment from the second scrimmage ".. Most of the decisions that ended up being bad decisions today were somebody trying to make something out of nothing and trying to create play when they didn’t need to. A bad play turned into a worse play and that’s something we have to do a better job of.” That sounds like Bo is struggling to form new habits. If that isn't cleaned up by game time then Oregon 21, Georgia 38. If Bo can learn to hold his powder and DL stays aggressive then Oregon 35 Georgia 31 (this is my prediction)

I think Georgia will work to establish the run in the first half and will struggle to score more than two touchdowns. I think Oregon will play an aggressive offense against a great Georgia defense and will score two or three touchdowns in the half. Yes Im predicting Oregon goes into the second half nearly tied or leading. Smart will make second half adjustments opening up his passing routes and Georgia will begin to make some gains in the second half. Likely two or three more touchdowns. If DL adjusts well to a fired up Georgia defense then Oregon could have an amazing second half capitalising against an overly aggressive Georgia defense. Three to five touchdowns. If Oregon plays conservative to keep its lead Oregon scores once in the second half. Bottom line, close at the half and whoever keeps or takes the offensive momentum in the second half wins the game.

Agreed, it was painful to watch. I for one am truly ready for connecting on those down the field shots and runs that break through the first layer!

Know Thy Enemy: The Oregon Ducks WWW.DAWGSPORTS.COM Georgia has twelve regular season football opponents in 2022. And you should know about them. Every. Single... Some interesting analysis, though they missed a few key points on us. They are correct that they have the edge on recruited talent but it's a week 1 game so it'll be our 1s against their 1s so that erodes their advantage a bit.

Nebraska coach Scott Frost says offensive linemen vomit 15-20 times each practice WWW.USATODAY.COM Nebraska coach Scott Frost describes new offensive line coach Donovan Raiola's methods as inducing "probably 15-20 vomits every day." I'm all for hard work but this is not smart. Makes me thankful for the current Oregon training culture which promotes hard work but joy in the game.

AK gave an interview here at 7:28 where he addressed this. Seems that they are looking for O-line recruits with a longer developmental upside. He commented that some of the O-line players that look great in high school cap out as sophomores. He also said that the focus is on quality players and that they aren't going to take 6 just to get 6. If the recruit quality isn't there they will take less. I agree that as the season develops the performance of the O-line will change the conversation in recruiting and Oregon can flip their targets likely based on AK's skill at developing talent (and obviously his skill as a recruiter). The other opportunity is the portal as O-line players from other schools may want/need to transfer to enhance their draft status. With Oregon loosing it's starting O-line next year there will be an opportunity for excellent linemen to transfer in and compete for starting positions. The game has changed and Oregon is always looking to make the best moves for Oregon.

Agreed, this is where KD needs to be inside the opposing DC's OODA loop. This is why I think Oregon is going to have a special season. There are plenty of teams that underperform the level of their recruited talent but I don't think this staff will be one. With the staffs open communication atmosphere that Fisch wrote about Oregon's play callers can win the chess match more often than not and put the talent in the position needed to highlight the talent on the field. On that note it would be great to have one of the writers do a piece on Adrian Klemm. We know he's a great recruiter but I for one am interested on how he does with player development. I went back and re-watched this interview from AK in April where he talks about re-tooling the Oregon O-line. There are some great details here relevant to this conversation.

I 100% agree with your analysis on the poor pass protection problem. To be fair to the O-line MC recruited the O-line to win the push and that usually means you get athletes who are designed to generate power in the root and not on the move (less hand fighting technique). Long developing pass protection is mostly about better technique and good footwork and the ability to read and scheme the D-line to keep the wall in place. This is a potential Achilles heel to Oregon's offense this season and Georgia will be the day 1 test of tests. I would expect Connerly to get some game time for the coaches to get a full speed evaluation on him at some point but maybe not against Georgia unless the O-line is really having trouble. If he's the best solution to the problem then I'm sure he will get situational play time and extra coaching on the pass protection technique for that package. It's my sincere hope that Oregon has been addressing this issue with the new offense by teaching a pass protection technique that will work with a less mobile O-line. Otherwise Georgia will be growing grass in the QB's facemask all game. The other side of the equation will be in playcalling that punishes a collapsing edge or double teaming with tightends (not always the best option as it creates a DB numbers advantage). I'm certain DL caught this in watching last years film and he's implemented measures to balance it, I just really hope he put solid plaster in this hole or it could be real ugly. It's my "hope" that Oregon's offense is like water that flows around the obstacles and finds it's way to the endzone. Chip had that and it was super hard to stop and scheme against. Watching Oregon's sledgehammer approach last year against Utah was SUPER FRUSTRATING.