Duck Fan 76

I want to believe... I'm curious though why do you think he will pass on a head coaching job? I mean I get that Oregon's program offers a lot more upside than the Arizona schools and the staff seems to really be a great unit here. The only argument I can give that KD stays is that DL will eventually get offers for the NFL and then KD either chooses to go with DL or compete for the Oregon opening.

Look at the Pro's and Con's from Bo's point of view for staying at Oregon another year. Pro: Could go in the first round for ($12 to $40 mil) Could get a Heisman cementing him in CFB history Con: Oregon's O-line will take a sizeable step backwards in '23 He could get an injury that lowers his draft earnings to $0 He could actually perform worse and lower his draft stock He has to stay in school taking time away from his body and skills development He's married and will delay moving to the city he will eventually be living in for yet another year Considering if Bo goes in the 3rd round his earnings would be in the $5 mil range the costs and risks are potentially very high. He came to Oregon to play behind this senior offensive line and to show that he's a much better athlete than what Auburn could showcase. Consider for a moment just how hard that decision was given that his dad is an Auburn legend and he grew up going to Auburn games. It would be like if Justin Herbert had transferred to Clemson his senior year to play weaker defenses throwing to better playmakers so he could get into the NFL. Thankfully Justin never had to make that choice even in Cristobal's system. I for one am thankful that Bo transferred and is having an amazing season. He deserves this spotlight since Auburn fans took out their football frustrations on him instead of aiming them at the program. On a side note I really wish members of the media would stop asking him leading questions about his recent development this year. They are trying to paint a picture that Auburn's program is worse than Oregon's, which of course it is. I mean the guy transferred here, that's enough of a statement that we don't need to force him to spit on his childhood love in front of cameras.

I meant the section at 0:16 - 0:24. "when our stadium is as crazy as it can be, it's hard to communicate on that side of the ball"

I was just getting ready to point out that a Bruin is a bear but I suspect he was trolling us 😉

He directly addresses it here:

I think the statement was ultimately part of message discipline and not really meant as a pure statement of fact. He's been very very focused on coaching fundamentals style football and teaching players to avoid extremes of emotion either way in the games. He's trying to keep the excitement of a home top 10 matchup and the ESPN gameday broadcast to a minimum for the players. I've heard him say in interviews that he includes simulated crowd noise in practices for the weeks we are going to visiting stadiums. That in of itself is an acknowledgement that Offenses have difficulty with calling out assignments and hearing the snap count on plays so yes he knows crowd noise has a measurable effect on games. Ultimately UCLA has had limited away game experience this year so I for one intend to "Ohhhhh..." myself hoarse at the game.

I know we've talked about who we want (or rather don't want) to win but I thought I'd ask what are your actual score predictions? I'm guessing Utah 38, USC 31. I think Utah will slow USC's run game and USC's defense will not be consistent against Utah for 4 quarters.

Both offenses need to keep it close for their gameplan to work.

So lets try to be fair in this game analysis because what we hope will happen has no influence on what is likely to actually happen. Looking at UCLA's last two games Washington and Utah are good ways to estimate how well UCLA is playing right now against quality opponents. UCLA had the Washington game in hand half way through the 2nd quarter and had the game put away 4 minutes into the 3rd quarter. Washington's defense is mid grade and couldn't slow the UCLA offense. Washington's offense in the game: TD, Safety, FG, Int, End of Half, TD, TD, TD. That's decent production but UCLA's drives went: Downs, TD, TD, TD, FG, Downs, TD, TD, Punt, End of Game. Washington made two egregious errors and got behind UCLA's offense and couldn't slow them down enough to catch up. Utah is the top rated defense in the PAC and they are getting there with excellent pass defense and they are pretty stingy with points. UCLA didn't really put the game away till the 4th quarter. Utah's offense in the game: Punt, Punt, Int, FG, TD, Missed FG, TD, TD, Fumble, Downs UCLA's possessions: Punt, Punt, TD, TD, Missed FG, End of Half, TD, TD, TD, TD, Int returned for TD There really was no trash time in this game, starters stayed in. The best PAC12 pass defense (statistically) got two stops and a pick six. Again, Utah got behind and couldn't slow UCLAs offense to catch back up. So how should Oregon fair? Oregon's defense is a weird story and the stats are heavily eschewed by how the opposition has been attacking us. We have statistically the worst pass defense but the best run defense. As for points allowed, we are mid grade for the PAC and that I think is the better metric. I think Oregon's defense is going to have to take a good sized step forward again on the pass defense to slow UCLA's offense. This isn't going to be easy to do but the staff has been pretty good at addressing weakness so this is a possibility. The question is, what adjustments can Oregon make to get stops against UCLA? Better pass defense (except Gonzo) is a good start and containing DTR in the pocket will be huge. Autzen and crowd noise will play into this so the defenses x-factor might be crowd induced errors. Oregon's offense is statistically leading the PAC in yards per game, points scored and rushing yards. We are middle of the PAC for passing yards but some of that is we only had one pass heavy game against WSU. The defense that's right behind Oregon for stopping the run? UCLA. Oregon's offense has got to be efficient (something they are great at) but I mean they need to take the plays that UCLA gives. If they are stopping the run, Oregon needs to find open receivers and get completions for good sized gains. That's the only way to get UCLA to respect the pass and open up run lanes for reliable drives. Punt's aren't going to be a good idea as this game is likely going to be a shootout. Falling behind early is a very bad plan against UCLA's offense because they get better as the game goes on, not worse. Interceptions/fumbles are killers because Oregon needs points on every possession and TDs over FGs. I doubt if Oregon's defense can stop UCLA's offense but truthfully they just need to slow them down enough and allow Oregon's excellent offense to be dominant. If Oregon falls behind, don't turn off your TV or head to the parking lot. Adjustments are going to be huge and while UCLA has been making great adjustments Oregon can as well. The WSU game was a test of tenacity for this team and to win this one they will need to play smart, tough and tenacious football. The bottom line is I expect this game to be a shootout and the winner will be the team that plays the more complete game in all phases. It's technically possible for this game to be a blowout in either direction but for that to happen one teams offense is going to have to have a terrible/meltdown day. I don't think either defense can force that to happen but a bout of the flu or some unknown force can always make teams play well below their potential.

I agree with that. Based solely off what we can observe for a first time HC Dan Lanning is doing extremely well. Looking at the remainder of the schedule from the preseason analysis the even money was a loss at Utah and a loss to UCLA. That would land us at 9-3 and no PAC12 championship. From where we do that analysis today, there's a pretty decent chance we beat UCLA. That would likely mean a 10-2 season or better. He legitimately has Oregon performing much better than expected even accounting for the Georgia loss. I personally think there's better than even odds that Oregon goes 11-1 and also wins the PAC12 championship. I base that assessment purely off the trajectory of Oregon's play. They aren't just pretty good right now, they are getting measurably better each week. If he can hold that trend then the Oregon team that gets into the PAC12 championship will be very very tough to beat. Even if Oregon hits a ceiling or regresses for a game then that's still a great achievement for the staff and players. Very bad things could obviously happen, but we don't name those things lest we tempt the fates...

I've been thinking about this angle and ultimately I have to trust that if Oregon keeps improving then the playoffs for an 11-1 Oregon is a real possibility. Following the best case trajectory of Oregon wins out I agree meeting an undefeated USC in the PAC12 championship would definitely make a stronger case for an Oregon Fiesta Bowl berth against Ohio State. That being said I'm also not happy with the Trojan's and I would almost rather see Utah win and have Oregon play Michigan in the Rose Bowl. If USC wins I'll look to the silver lining but I will be cheering if Utah buries Troy.

I've been scratching my head on this one too. I can't say that I've been able to really point to why the pressure isn't getting there reliably. I really don't think it's a problem with coach Tuioti as he's had real success at other school with the D-line. Could it be that having Thibodeaux be the focus arrested the development of the pass rush? That seems like a pretty ridiculous notion. I HOPE it's because the emphasis has been on staying gap sound and the defense hasn't made pass rush a major priority for development... but you know what they say? Hope in one hand...

The biggest surprise to me has been how Oregon has managed to execute real gameplay adjustments each week since Georgia. I think I've become used to coaches diagnosing the right problem areas after a game but to me it seems the norm is 5+ games to make significant adjustments to those problem areas. I've never seen an Oregon team/staff adjust this fast before.

I think it's like 70/30 that gameday picks Autzen. Herbstreit and Corso have a soft spot for the ducks and the drama with an undefeated UCLA under Kelly is too much. Something to note here is that UCLA isn't scheduled to play Oregon next year and with them leaving the conference this may be the last time Oregon plays UCLA for a long time. We do host USC at Autzen next year and that game will be huge as well.

I tend to agree with the broader sentiment that Charles is expressing BUT I do agree with your statement above. We have 10 months to develop Ty and in the end I have always believed in the philosophy that the best player plays. I'm pretty certain we lose Bo to the NFL after this season and that is Ty's time to shine. I really hope he gets the development he needs to execute at a high level in this offense. The truth is Oregon's new offense requires a smart and steady QB at the head as the opportunity is there for the QB to create plenty of bad plays every down. "Bo Picks" has become "Bo Six" because he's executing and making great reads/decisions. I'm not going to pretend that I'm not worried by what I see out of Ty, not just for next year but as a backup for Bo this year. His throws are unsound, hopefully that's nerves just because he's been throwing a lot of balls in practice. There are TWO transfer windows between now and Fall camp. I want to see Ty get better and get the start but in the end if someone transfers in with the skills and can prove the difference in play... they should get the start. If Dante Moore comes in and blows up the Spring camp then he will have earned that start. Right now, I'm just hoping Bo stays completely healthy for the rest of the season. Not just for the Ducks but Bo has proven to me that he got a bad rap in Auburn and I want to see "Bo Six" eclipse that version of himself and get his shot in the NFL. If nothing else, think of what that narrative does for the Oregon recruiting conversation down in SEC country.

Both Oregon and UCLA are very likely to be top 10 when we play in two weeks as UCLA has a bye week this week as well. The drama of this matchup is HUGE! with Chip turning the Oregon job down and coming in undefeated to play first year coach Dan Lanning who is putting together a legendary inaugural season. You add in two full weeks for both teams to prepare for this game... and crazy is going to happen. ESPN Game Day is going to Tennessee next week but what do you want to bet they come to Autzen for week 8? There are other dual ranked games that weekend but this one will likely be the only dual top 10 matchup and it's going to be SPICY!

I attended UO during the infamous 1999 campus protests and I remember the students putting Nike stickers all over the library (not as a sign of support). The Knight's have been amazing to the UO and the education of a large student body have been significantly uplifted by their generosity. There's a lot of "disinformation" out there on the university finances and how "student tuition" pays for UO football. Truthfully it's nothing short of amazing that the school is doing as well as it is after the measure 5 changes took hold.

It's an interesting topic and I doubt there's a "unifying field theory" of coaching success at Oregon or after. In the history of the program there have been the occasional great players at Oregon that lifted the teams to more success than the local recruiting population should be able to support (Fouts, Rashad, Van Broklyn, Renfro). The state of Oregon has always lacked the sheer number of great HS athletes to draw from that gives success to programs closer to large populations. The modern era trend line from 90's to now has more than one driver and most of them have been mentioned above. What I would add is that I actually think that some of that success is due to bringing in multiple coaches on the rise. What I mean is that we have benefited from the coaching turn over by bringing a fresh approach every so often to build upon what Oregon already had going for it. The truth is we are going to loose Dan Lanning at some point if he continues to be successful. I doubt it would be to another college program but a football nerd like DL has got to be chomping at the bit to coach in the NFL. Will he be successful in the NFL? Who knows but the truth is most NFL coaches aren't as there's a constant churn to staff in the NFL. For now I think we're in good coaching shape and I doubt we will loose KD this year (but it's absolutely possible if his offense keeps up the current trend). We have to have faith that DL will bring in more talent if we loose coaches and we have to have faith that the program will bring in more talent if we loose DL. Slick Willie is the only coach I had hard feelings about and each one of the prior head coaches (even Chip) brought a mixed bag of good and bad qualities to the position. What matters to the program is that we keep salaries high enough to pull in high quality coordinators and position coaches to keep recruiting and developing players from across the country. We also need to hold coaches to a standard that is realistic and measurable. They get paid a lot of money and we have clear program expectations with regard to the program trajectory. I thought Helfrich was fired prematurely to be honest but without that event we wouldn't be recruiting like we do now. I know the above sounds like I'm embracing CFB as a business and that's because in general I am. The idea that NCAA football is about amateur student athletes competing for school pride on the weekends when they aren't studying for their degree went away somewhere in the 1960s. The amateur status of these programs went out the door with the rise of the NFL and the influx of broadcast money so I'm glad that NIL is correcting the worst of it (though NIL definitely needs fixed). If you want to watch amateur college football it's played in the NAIA all over the country. Lots of loyal coaches making peanuts and actual student athletes in those games. As for me, I'm just happy that the people running Duck football seem to know what they are doing. I mean look at the mess USC and UCLA made of their programs. That got bad enough that they have to leave the PAC to stay viable. We'll see where that all goes but if Phil has had a major influence on the Ducks it's not just the donations, his business acumen ensures the school runs athletics like a business and that means accountability for achieving goals.

Good news, the transfer portal now has windows. "The transfer windows, which will go into effect in time for the 2022-23 season, will allow 60 days per year for athletes to enter the portal and maintain immediate eligibility for first-time transfers. For fall sports like football, the period will be split into two periods. The first, a 45-day period, will start the day after championship selections are made. A second window will be instituted from May 1-15 so players can enter the transfer portal after spring camp."

5 -> 6 -> 8 -> 8 -> 14 I would call that a clear trend line in the wrong direction. Some penalties are to be expected (man down the field on RPO) and to be honest the officials get about 4 of those in the Stanford game. That still leaves about 8+ solid mental errors.

I'm going to have to look at the film to really judge what happened. Besides what you already pointed out from my seat there were a few egregious face mask penalties that the officials missed and Stanford got ever more chippy as the game went on. To be fair Stanford is playing a nightmare schedule right now and their offense is abysmal so defenders getting angry is to be expected. That being said some of that chippy play after the whistle absolutely should have been called. As for Seven's ejection here is the video. At 9 seconds in you will see Stanford safety #2 McGill push a helmetless Bo Nix for making a tackle on what Bo thought was a live ball. The play was whistled dead but obviously Stanford was continuing to run with the ball. At 12 seconds you will see Stanford corner #4 Turner-Muhammad pushing Oregon players rallying to Bo. At 17 seconds Seven is pulling Turner-Muhammed out of the pile. He pushed Turner-Muhammed in the helmet right in front of the line judge. At 21 seconds he pushes Stanford linebacker #8 Tristan Sinclair in the helmet, this time with force. When I watch the scuffle I see Seven trying to get Stanford players away from the Oregon sideline. This wasn't in my opinion a negative for Seven but he needs to learn to not push helmets since that will draw a flag. My question is, if Seven hadn't pushed two guys helmets would the officials have thrown any flags? Stanford started the scuffle and should have been penalized for the shoving after the play was dead. Ultimately what I watched was some sloppy mistakes from Oregon but terrible officiating from the PAC. We're way past due to hold the conference accountable for OUR officials. Honestly though, as long as we keep paying "super fans" peridium to officiate games this is what we are going to get.

From what I saw Ty is struggling with accuracy during games. Since Jay throws dimes I'm sure Ty is showing something in practices that makes him the #2. As for why he's struggling in trash time that could be as simple as nerves. He's a mobile QB but getting him more game time to settle in and make his throws will likely be a priority for the staff.

Lanning is also focused on player development, if you don't get the two's in the games at some point they will be limited when you do need them. Injuries are a reality in football.

I was at the game and honestly I chalk it up to 1) The play was a bit sloppy, especially in the third quarter 2) It was a night game In the post game the players not dancing was discussed and Lanning's rule essentially breaks down to you have to have the game well in hand and playing clean football to dance during Shout.