On 11/8/2023 at 5:44 PM, Dr Hilarius said:

One thing is for sure, if OBD win the coin toss, they need to get the ball first on offense and run a 75-yard series that ends in a TD and takes 5 mins off the clock before U$C ever breathes on the ball.

Why do you want to shorten this game?  Unless you think the Ducks simply aren't as good, or aren't as deep (which seems to be the complete opposite of what most think), then you should want as many possessions as possible. The more possessions there are, the more likely the truly better team will win.  In a low possession game, a few (fluke?) plays have an even more dramatic impact on the outcome.

 

They key is points per possession, rather than worrying about trying to eat up clock at the start of the game.  Obviously, in certain situations (getting the last score before half, salting away a 4th quarter lead, etc.), then you can be mindful of the clock.

On 11/9/2023 at 4:18 AM, ElPatoUO said:

Why do you want to shorten this game?  Unless you think the Ducks simply aren't as good, or aren't as deep (which seems to be the complete opposite of what most think), then you should want as many possessions as possible. The more possessions there are, the more likely the truly better team will win.  In a low possession game, a few (fluke?) plays have an even more dramatic impact on the outcome.

 

They key is points per possession, rather than worrying about trying to eat up clock at the start of the game.  Obviously, in certain situations (getting the last score before half, salting away a 4th quarter lead, etc.), then you can be mindful of the clock.

Great take.

 

But if there is a chance to shorten the game vs. the defending Heisman Trophy winner who put up 42 points vs. UW when OREGON put up 33, IMO it makes sense to keep Caleb off the field and looking for his Mom post-game.

On 11/9/2023 at 1:18 AM, ElPatoUO said:

Why do you want to shorten this game?  Unless you think the Ducks simply aren't as good, or aren't as deep (which seems to be the complete opposite of what most think), then you should want as many possessions as possible. The more possessions there are, the more likely the truly better team will win.  In a low possession game, a few (fluke?) plays have an even more dramatic impact on the outcome.

 

They key is points per possession, rather than worrying about trying to eat up clock at the start of the game.  Obviously, in certain situations (getting the last score before half, salting away a 4th quarter lead, etc.), then you can be mindful of the clock.

I have been thinking this very same thing. We want more possessions, not fewer.

 

Why???

 

Everyone believes that both teams have a great offense and can score points. The difference is, which team has the better defense and can more probably get more stops???

 

Everyone knows that Oregon has the better defense. But having the better defense does not mean that they will get a 3-and-out on every drive. It just means that they have a better chance of getting a stop on any one particular drive.

 

For example, if you toss a coin 1000 times, the split between heads and tails will be close to the probability of getting tails 50% of the time. But... there is a chance that if you toss the coin only 3 times it will come up heads all three times. In fact, if you toss the coin 1000 times there will no doubt be several times that at least 3 heads in a row will be tossed.

 

Let's say that the Ducks and the Trojans have a 66% to 33% chance of getting a stop, respectively. If everyone plays slow to limit the other team's offensive possessions, and each team only gets 3 possessions per half, the score could easily be USC 14 - UO 7... because anyone can toss 3 heads in a row.

 

The fewer possessions, the tighter the game. The more possessions, the greater the probability that Oregon gets pulls away from USC, assuming a 66% - 33% probability of getting a stop.

 

Look no further than the Stanford game. Stanford happened to get a couple of stops in a row at the beginning of the game. Meanwhile, Oregon was only able to hold the Tree to 3 points each on their first couple of possessions... and the games was a LOT CLOSER than it should have been half way through the second quarter.

 

The more possessions this Saturday, the wider the margin of victory for the Ducks. Assuming both teams play at their normal pace, Expect Ducks to win 56 - 24.

 

If both teams play slow to limit the other team's possessions. The Ducks might win by only a touchdown... but they could even lose, because anyone can throw 3 tails in a row.

 

 

 

 

One thing I caught on USC article comments was that there is a strong perception that Grinch was playing his guys rather than the best guys.

 

If that was truly the case then we might see some improvement in their D just by having better players in the game for often. I'm a little skeptical about that being a significant issue, but we'll see.