CalBear95

As I wrote at the time of the search, no other program with an opening was even considering Wilcox. That should tell you one of two things: he’s either a really mediocre to bad coach or you are seeing something that eludes everyone else. The fact Mullens threw himself at Wilcox multiple times in a fit of desperation was (and remains) alarming. Wilcox likes to hide behind the built in excuses at Cal because he is, at best, a mediocre coach. He should never have been on the list and only was because some ex-players and boosters were panicked about another coach leaving and so convinced themselves the answer was “an Oregon man.” The Ducks dodged a huge bullet.

I wasn’t able to catch a lot of the game but what I did see was definitely not as sharp as the week prior. That said, I don’t feel they played down to the level of the competition. While there was likely a drop in focus after such a huge game, they were never really in risk of losing. The same could not be said of last year’s team who would probably have lost It is nigh impossible to play at the level they did against UCLA week in and week out. So if is their “let down” mode, this team is going to be just fine.

IDK how this ends. I do think the fate of the conference sits in the hands of the four corner schools. Yes, of course the payout per school is a critical baseline. I think the question comes down to (1) how much revenue in any P12 deal comes from streaming only platforms and (2) whether the B12 deal has an escalating payout if that league expands. If (2) is “no” then I see no way any P12 school defects to the B12 If (2) is “yes” and the new P12 deal has a decent slate of valuable inventory consigned to its streaming partner(s) it might force the corner schools to decide how much risk they want to take. At the end of the day, even if you make more than your B12 peers but nobody really watches your games, you aren’t really coming out ahead. As they say, out of sight, out of mind.. I don’t really know enough about the growth projections for streaming audiences vs linear TV and am pretty certain the P12 team has a ton of people on staff who do. But your future (giving it exclusivity for your rights for some extended period of time) to a conference so desperate that is seriously having to take the risk (when you can always wait and see from the vantage of your new conference who will happily jump on the new trend after your old conference took all the risk to validate it) a really tall Absent linear media revenue and inventory guarantees that that are equal to the B12, the move I would make - assuming the answer to (2) is “yes” - is to defect and collapse the P12. Streaming inventory isn’t a concept that is going anywhere so why risk oblivion if it doesn’t turn out to be a difference maker?

Dawgs. Far more brand equity and so that carries a ton of weight with those who don’t pay a ton of attention to the conference but have a real impact on shaping the narrative of P5 pecking order. Utah has already broken through. Shaw is a total choker in games not against the Ducks and especially outside the conference so no Furd for me. That leaves OSU because it makes late season football a must watch for the country and props up playoff rankings for OBD when they win.

@HappyToBeADuckMy point wasn’t that nothing is happening - assuredly there is - but as @Charles Fischermentioned earlier, the streaming aspects are complicated and take time. The relatively frequent updates just aren’t all that useful because that time scale is completely out of phase with the cadence of those business conversations. That is what I meant by my point about these ‘updates’ being of low value. That will change once we have something substantive to react to from those discussions or from others such as those being led by the B12.

I too was pleasantly surprised to see UO/UCLA take the lion’s share of eyeballs. I really think a good chunk people just want to watch good football games regardless of conference. And I think that is also a sign that we shouldn’t be afraid to try to own the 1pm PST slot instead of the 7:30 window. It occurred to me yesterday that my disbelief that the media markets on the west coast aren’t valuable unless they are used to fill the late window was underpinned by my conflating economic power with raw population. The west coast is far and away the biggest economic engine in the US followed by the east coast (largely due to NYC). But we don’t have huge population areas outside of LA. Kinda hard to wrap the mind around As to streaming I was curious as to others’ experience on this. We cut the cord recently and use Hulu++ (comes with ESPN premium and conference networks). We also have Prime and Apple+. I get confused when people scoff at online as some unreliable or crazy platform. After all, Netflix is a heavily used service and it is in no way different than Hulu++ or Apple+ So, I love the ease of switching from game to game as well has having a ton of games to choose from Anyone here also cut the cord or are skeptical of streaming?

These sorts of stories (with Wilner, to me, being the biggest offender) might as well read ‘no news but I gotta get my article quota filled.’ I’ll get interested when there is some hard data. The one piece of information from the article is it looks as if mid-November is set to be a read out of potential revenue numbers so to try and pry UCLA back from the B1G. Until then or some other measurable event it’s just breathless reporting on how much the grass grew since yesterday

I expect a step back next year with a new QB and O-line graduation but the following year could be awesome as I think the D will by then have the talent and depth to allow for DL’s scheme and be fairly nasty. This year the O is pretty crazy but by 2024 I think both sides of the ball are going to be really good So, I think these days will be nostalgic but because it was the beginning of an awesome era

Lanning and crew have to date been pretty good at exorcising old ghosts. In the past Cal’s terrible, no good coach (not going to mention some on this board were actively saying he would be a great hire but… 🙂 ) would manage to stymie the Ducks. Don’t see that happening this year.

Getting run over and overwhelmed by Georgia was the best thing that happened to this team. Even if it costs OBD a playoff spot this year it is metaphorical money well spent. IMHO, the dividends from that game will pay off for years to come. Frankly, I don’t think they are where they are right now without that game (IOW, even in the counter factual scenario the CFP isn’t happening)

Even if the Ducks beat UCLA, Utah, and USC I don’t see any path to the CFP. The game against UGA basically guaranteed this. Two SEC teams for sure, one B1G and probably the B12. That’s why the NCAA tournament is so great. A really good team could get blitzed in an opening game but if they play well enough going forward they get an invite and have a shot at a title. The tournament allows for a team’s growth over the course of a season whereas with only four spots in CFP that becomes impossible. I’ll be really curious what a move to 12 teams does in terms of scheduling as while the UGA game likely precludes the Ducks this year, the game clearly was a huge growth point for the team. If they win out it’s not a signal of a weak PAC but rather that the Ducks have gotten better each week of their season and aren’t at all the same squad they were in September Would be a lot of fun to see what kind of damage they could do in an expanded tournament

I would put DeBoer ahead of Riley given the state of each program inherited. As the article notes, USC was pretty rich on the offensive side of the ball. Add to that his national name recognition, the hype around his hiring, and his existing relationship with Caleb, his strong transfer performance, while impressive in terms of talent, isn’t unsurprising. Add to that he has done little to nothing to upgrade the defense which has always been a liability with his teams. Also unsurprising (and not in a good way) Contrast that with DeBoer who took over a program that was imploding from the dysfunction of Lake’s debacle of a regime and the associated loss of any recruiting momentum. The fact the Huskies have looked as good as they have is I think fair to say very unexpected. DeBoer has over performed whereas I would say Riley is performing to baseline (which isn’t a negative BTW).

Taking emotion out of the current situation, this (to me at least) an insanely interesting problem/scenario from a business POV. Why? Because the problem is fundamentally one of sequencing/timing which is a question heavily influenced by one’s ability to correctly project the future value/power of new streaming media entities. The beta is pretty large and similar questions have broken some (Larry Scott and his execution of the PAC 12 Network) and made others (Jobs betting on the iMac when he came back to Apple). George K consistently strikes me as a pretty savvy guy and I think he is showing that here in his approach. His B12 counterpart seems to view the scenario’s best answer to be that what comes from ESPN/Fox today is greater than any value the streaming platforms can provide tomorrow. Ergo, act now and reduce his rival conference’s future media revenue take. George K seems to think the opposite or, at least in the parlance of Texas Holdem, is willing to call a sizable bet behind him in order to get more information. For whatever you think of him, you really have to admire his strategy chops and sangfroid. No idea who will be right but I bet this starts showing up in business schools several years from now.

The probability of the team not playing hard has to be - or certainly very close to - zero. The Wazzu game showed there is no quit in the team. Also, it’s a huge game so the team is going to be fired up as it is. In terms of the Ducks getting housed, I don’t see that but CFB is a game of volatility and with each team having a high powered offense anything is possible

All I know is I won’t be watching the game because I can’t handle the stress and anxiety. I believe the Ducks can most certainly beat UCLA but my biggest fear is DTR’s ability to carve up the secondary a la UGA. Maybe I’m living in the pre-Lanning world (e.g., @ Stanford PTSD)

The quote has been removed from a lot of its context so interpreting it is a bit challenging. What was the question being answered and who is the ‘he’ referring to?

One thing I find amusing is the constant refrain that the PNW and NorCal schools ‘don’t bring enough value to warrant a full share of B1G media dollars.’ They do. The problem is that the bottom schools in the B1G are overcompensated in the deal for no other reason than that they happened to be part of a conference whose media value has skyrocketed of late, a phenomenon for which they had little impact to bring into being. There is no way some school making 175% of their actual media value will vote to ‘dilute’ that windfall. Until the power schools in the B1G twist the arms of these schools to get in line, expansion is a ways off. And that’s a huge problem for the Ducks because, as noted earlier, adding CFP revenue onto whatever cut the Ducks get in the PAC’s new media deal, they still are ~$35MM/year short with every school in the SEC and B1G Yikes.

I saw that ‘shaping’ line and almost spit my coffee out stifling a very loud guffaw. My eye was so distracted by that utterly clueless observation that I missed ‘innovative’. That is definitely a…perspective. And these people are the ‘experts’ on college football. I’d say more like lazy writers who simply latch onto a narrative and run with it rather than develop and informed opinion. The best part of the trick? When Mario gets canned ad Miami because of a plodding offensive philosophy this guy and all of his peers will say the problem the AD and boosters should have known better given his track record/history at Oregon (where in a nod to Herbert’s talent he succeeded *despite* Mario’s shackles)

My wife is a survivor so I very much appreciate them continually elevating this issue. IMHO, the awareness efforts are never played out.

I agree with Charles but I do think scheme fit and competent coaching plays a big role (Shough as an example). TT looks scared and ultimately that is why I agree with Charles. He is coming in to mop up a game. Against non 1st team competition. What is there to be scared of? My guess is failing which, as tends to be the case, manifests that outcome. Maybe he isn’t a fit which is why he is struggling. But I have real trouble understanding why he is so shaky when he has zero pressure to be a star.

The degree of this Cougin It can be best measured as follows: After scoring to go up 34-22 Wazzu’ win probability was 96%. In ~3 minutes of game time the win probability was 99%. For the Ducks. Let that sink in to how colossal this comeback was.

I’m glad this is their take. If the Ducks win then they ‘over performed’ which feeds a narrative of the team ‘getting better’ and that ‘nobody wants to play.’ That said, their comments about the past three games is proof positive these guys are just tossing out cool sounding data but have zero clue how to read it. The team changed coaches so why do the first two games have any bearing on what the Ducks will do this year? Also consider the second of these three games was after the coach left and they have a totally different QB. Lastly, maybe a young team playing the best team in the country at their place in their first game of the year using a totally new scheme may not be the best way to gauge performance for a team that clearly bounced back. Maybe BYU wins but it won’t be because their ‘past three games’ stat had any predictive value in that outcome

On the first pick, I read the ball as under thrown but I only have the ESPN highlight clip to go off so my perception could be off (or I could just be off 🙂 )

The choke happened earlier in that game when they didn’t punch it in at the goal line. Wittingham is a really good coach so I was shocked to see him refuse the sneak not once but twice. That set of decisions loomed large as the game went on.

Smart is correct but what he doesn’t say is that DL tried to run a game plan beyond the skill and experience of his talent relative to that delta. That’s where, hopefully, DL will learn. I think the greatest example of blunting the advantage of your opponent to maximize your chances of winning is Ali’s ‘rope-a-dope’ strategy against Foreman. Ali could straight up knock people out but he knew he couldn’t go toe to toe with Foreman. So he didn’t. DL tried to outpunch Foreman and ended up looking like Joe Frazier in that endeavor