Duck Fan 76

On the VERY plus side, the smoke has blocked out most of the sun so instead of the 99 degrees that was forecasted it's currently about 80 degrees here in Eugene.

When I watched Bo's interview after the Georgia blowout he looked pretty defeated. If he begins to really listen to the coaches and learn to avoid his instincts to play sandlot football then he can be a good steward of the offense. If he continues to give in to the instincts to make stuff happen I expect KD to sit him. It's really hard to NOT trust your instincts but he's picked up a bad read skillset that has to be trained out of him through repetition. It can't happen overnight but it begins with him playing the plays as designed. I think it's a 30/70 chance that he's able to make real progress against those habits this year. It will be easier against Eastern Washington due to the talent gap but the BYU game could go badly for Bo.

Hindsight is 20/20 but so too can be introspection. I can see now that what we saw at the end of last year wasn't just a motivational downturn due to perceived coaching exits. What was exposed by Utah was instead a real structural weakness in the teams mechanics & composition. I was blinding myself to this reality with the notion that spring & fall camp would give the coaches time to correct what they saw and turn out an Oregon team meeting its full potential. Rome wasn't built in a day and neither was the 2021 Oregon football team, plenty of effort was in the ground before DL's staff got to Eugene and began diagnosing fundamentals. How I thought the new staff would be able to come together, establish their program, install a new offense & defense and then coach the flaws out of the 2021 team in that short of a span was in hindsight, naïve. These players have several years of development (and habits) already and in some cases underdevelopment has lowered their potential. We can't flip a switch and correct all of these points in a 4 week fall camp. After the Georgia game freed me of my illusions there was the usual emotional down turn. Having read more than a few posts on this site and others I think we as a fanbase are in a better place with the 2022 season and importantly we are focused on continuing to lend support and encouragement to the new program. Classes start after the Washington State game and at that point the players will be restricted to about 20 hours a week (I believe) of official team practice time. Until then the program has their full attention and will be working hard to build the core fundamentals they need to not only be successful this season but in the next and the next... This is indeed a building year. I believe we are going to have a successful season and likely much better than the 50% mark. I have real hope for the offense and I believe the defense will make strides with pass protection. They now have a clear focus on tackling fundamentals and scheme adjustments that allows for bigger defenders to find success against the pass. I've stopped worrying about the top tier of CFB for this season and I'm going to take it one game at a time and one play at a time. I'm going to learn to love to watch the team grow. That means I'm going to accept some bad plays and dumb throws (please God, not too many!) and focus on watching players develop over the season. That seems a healthier relationship in general with CFB.

Agreed, and we have to trust that the coaches are going to start the QB that gives the team the best chance to win. The staff felt Bo gave us the best chance, so he got the start. The offense made big mistakes against a great defense and a held to 3 points is what we get. That being said, the defense is what made that game an embarrassment. If Bo had a 'Heisman night' we wouldn't have been in that game and we would still be talking about an embarrassing defensive performance. I don't know what the strategy is to help the defense get this right, there's plenty of talent but missing tackles like that will get you sat down on a high school bench. The open spaces in passing lanes was GLARING. I think Bo get's the start against Eastern Washington and hopefully we blow it up on the offense side to 1) give the defense the time they need to figure stuff out and 2) Get the #2 in the game to figure his stuff out. If Bo struggles to make good decisions against BYU, I'm sure the staff will send in the backup and we will see what's what.

Great article! How the players and coaches react will determine the outcome for this season and likely help shape the next 4 years of the program. Remember, there were a bunch of very young players on the field for Oregon this Saturday and they got really embarrassed. There is real program value in having that happen as long as the coaching is there to shape the fuel into fire. Justin Herbert's first game as a starter was a 70-21 blowout by Washington at Autzen in 2016. (I'm NOT comparing Bo to Justin... In this scenario Bo is likely Dakota Prukop) What did Justin do with that loss? He turned it into work ethic... Oregon will be building this season, we need to see coaching that shapes shame into work ethic.

There is absolutely some wisdom here. I completely misdiagnosed the Auburn film with Bo and the reality is QB is the most important position on the field as they make nearly all of the critical offensive decisions that lead to success or failure in a game. We don't know what Bo (or TT or JB) show in closed practices. Bo might be an utter genius in explaining to the coaches every aspect of the offense and defense but gameplay is the judge of play potential and what evidence we have there is that he makes poor decisions when it really matters. Forget the fans, DL and the staff owe it to every player on the Oregon team to reevaluate every single decision that has been made to date. Starting QB is certainly one of those decisions. I do have faith in the young staff, but that faith is tempered with data. We need to see skills development as JOB #1 and those skills need to be demonstrated during the games. One thing is for sure, we need much better offensive play immediately because it's going to take some time to put the defensive house in order.

So we currently have a 5-star QB that is extremely athletic but at his core is a scrambling QB. This seems to make a lot of sense in the KD offense where mobility is a key piece to the explosive offense. That being said our best recruit this cycle is Dante Moore who is THE elite pocket passer for this class. How does KD's offense change with a pocket passer? KD recruited Moore so we have to believe he has a solid plan that he shared with Moore. Does Jay Butterfield move ahead of Ty Thompson in the depth chart to see this transition? At this point I believe all things being considered field vision and pressure judgement need to be the definitive characteristics at QB. Secondary thought, how does the Oregon offensive line have to change to support KD's offense and Moore in the future? Do we need to recruit a much more agile lineman for the dynamic pressure schemes? Obviously that idea fits well with Josh Conerly. Can Oregon have more luck building the O-line from speed than power?

"The error 0x80070643 message is usually the result of system settings that were configured incorrectly... or old versions of programs that weren't removed correctly when a new version was downloaded" So, I think we can assess from the difficulties with coverage and edge containment today that the new defensive install didn't go as well as hoped. There were clearly some "issues" that will need to be teased apart in the film to identify where the players will need the fundamentals of the defense clarified for them. I think that's the least of our worries however. My biggest concerns from the game was the poor tackling. I mean watching it at game speed many of those missed tackles looked absolutely terrible. I heard DL acknowledge that the tackling had to improve as well as the coaching. When he was asked about Bo in the 4th quarter he said he wanted to see if the offense could build a rhythm to take out of this game. He then said "Bo's our quarterback". I know we're gun shy from last year but I have to imagine that showing improvement against BYU in week 3 is Bo's only hope to keep the job. We will most likely learn nothing next week but it's an opportunity to practice some fundamentals.

Agreed, Georgia looked great and really executed well. As for us? We may need to make a few adjustments to this week's practice.

Agreed, maybe some tackling drills this week before Eastern Washington hangs 28 on us?

Ok, burning the bandwagon... I'll eat major Crow on this game.

At least there's plenty of us to share the crow with. Dawgs looked great, hats off to Georgia!

I share this view 100%. Oregon needs to get Georgia's offense into a pass necessity state. There are some specific challenges with that and they are some of the best TE's in CFB. On the Oregon offense side Oregon needs to throw the ball well to open up the run. This is a lot harder than going the other way. The specific challenge with that is the disguised pressure scheme. You can double team a known threat, how do you cover pressure you don't know is coming? The RB can pick up some but not if he's sent on a wheel route. The answer I think is make Georgia use it's spy for tackles. If Bo picks up the unblocked pressure staying in the pocket is also called a sack unless he can throw just before getting hit. Do that enough and you will eventually throw a pick or three. Sometimes your best bet is to take the little that's offered and play for the next down where you might pick up the pressure and connect downfield.

Oregon 35 - 31, 2, 2, 350

We'll see tomorrow...

Some Auburn fans will be rooting for Oregon tomorrow. If Bo plays well it helps Oregon recruiting in the deep south. Goodman: All eyes on Bo Nix to start the 2022 football season WWW.AL.COM Welcome to the college football season where everyone in Alabama can cheer for a quarterback at Oregon.

Considering Georgia isn't quite sure who they are playing on Saturday I would expect the first defensive series to be a bit cautious and designed to feel out Oregon's offense. Considering Oregon isn't quite sure how the offense will execute on Saturday I would expect the script to settle some nerves and build rhythm in the offense. What does Oregon call for the first play? Counter into the B gap.

So we've got some idea what Oregon's new defense is going to look like but KD's offense is still a bit of guess work. Here is the interview KD gave after F.S. lost to Clemson 30-20. Hanging 20 points on Clemson even in a down year (if you can call a 4th place finish down) isn't an easy accomplishment. For comparison Wake Forrest scored the most against Clemson with 27 points. Georgia's offense (admittedly game 1) scored 10 points on Clemson. The major issues that KD identified were not putting themselves in a position to get 3rd down conversions or killing drives with penalties. 3rd and long against a great defense is pretty much a statistical recipe for poor offensive production. As he says, playing a top tier defense with an explosive offense you are only going to get 1-2 explosive plays, the rest you must earn. Every other time the defense is just too talented and too well coached to give up the big plays. I think there's a few hints in the interview where he talks about how he schemed Clemson as to what Oregon's game plan against Georgia might look like. For Oregon to make this a GAME, Oregon needs to pass down the field very very VERY well. We need to hit receivers in the cross and post pattern with decent yards after the catch. If Oregon attempts to establish the power run to open up the pass they will run straight into Georgia's teeth and we will not cover. The problem is obviously the pass rush with disguised looks, how does Oregon get to check 2 let alone check 4? The disguised pressure will come and it just will not get picked up every time. I don't think the screen or wheel route is the answer, Georgia tackles too well and they are too well coached for that. If Bo is looking to elevate his stock for playing on Sunday's he needs to do it on this Saturday. He has the physical gifts to recognize the unblocked pressure and find that forward running lane. He wont pick up 15 against the Mint but he will reliably translate -3 to +3. 3rd and 4 is generally a better situation than 3rd and 13.

I do agree. If Georgia scores 27 or under then then either Georgia's offense sputtered or Oregon's defense overperformed. If Oregon scores 24 then either Georgia's defense sputtered or Oregon's offense overperformed. The narrative that effects the polls will have more to do with the look and feel of the game (eye test for analysts and announcers).

Sorry I'm a math guy so I have to quibble slightly on "the Ducks would do well to cover". The spread is actually set as a 50/50 mark for the betting houses. Equal odds of covering or not. That's why betting on the spread exists instead of just the Moneyline (straight up bet on win or lose). If you look here you will see that betting on Oregon to beat the 16.5 point spread pays out -108 (92.5%) and betting on Georgia to make the spread pays out -112 (89.2%). The payouts fluctuate based on the betting volume to ensure the house has a safe risk profile incase the line is soft. The money line indeed has Oregon winning at +550 (550% return) and Georgia winning at -800 (12.5% return), so Georgia is very much the "safe bet" to win this game. In case you are wondering Vegas has the predicted score at Georgia 34 - Oregon 17. Using the nominal score if Oregon gets a pick-six off one Georgia scoring drive the expected final score would then be Georgia 27 - Oregon 24. Picks for a TD are however rare events... Going the other way a Georgia pick-six makes the expected score Georgia 41 - Oregon 10. Too bad McKinley went to the NFL.

Very very true, the devil is in the details and the calls can get a bit iffy. Most fans don't know when it's legal. The hope is that Oregon's receiver's are taught to cause a DB to drop half a step without any contact. That's usually all you need across the middle. Gridiron Glossary: Rub Route | Third Down Draw THIRDDOWNDRAW.COM A combination of pass routes where one receiver's route is designed to cause him to run into the defender guarding another receiver. https://youtu.be/txjC9DnM5oA?start=429s&?end=443s...

I did read that when his 2021 completion percentage is adjusted for a teams average number of drops it's in the high 60's. That being said he doesn't do touch passes well and instead will put some heat on screens. He's more accurate across the middle than down the side lines as well. I expect Oregon when passing to use crossing routes with a rub on the defender this Saturday.

Georgia football: 3 reasons Oregon could shock the Bulldogs WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM It's not LIKELY, mind you, but we're here to tell you that it wouldn't be an earth-shaking upset. I generally agree with the articles premise, the odds (literally) are against the Ducks on Saturday but if Oregon players execute this game will be a GAME! Coach Smart will have Georgia ready for this game, as ready as any team can be for game 1. On that note Georgia players have mentioned that it's a little weird watching game film for four different schools to get ready. Transfer portal = week 1 chaos!

Oregon's solution? Use NIL in a legitimate (and legal) way but focus on developing players to play in the NFL. We have 1! player from last years class still on an NFL roster right now...

I would add one more item, if the program is going to survive in the upcoming cash grab of CFB then Excitement! MUST be the brand for Oregon. Those young kids watching Oregon around the country love Oregon football because of that excitement. They dream of breaking those touchdowns through the second level and having foot races with safeties. We get flack about the constant jersey and helmet theater but let me tell you that stuff is popular with kids. Who cares what the 30+ crowd thinks of the Oregon brand, we aren't recruiting them and we aren't selling shoes to them. I would love to see DL build the Oregon brand on three pillars 1) Tough, smart defense 2) Exciting, innovative offense 3) Players with character that talk up how much they really enjoy playing at Oregon If we get those three pillars then our brand will be exciting to watch. Specifically kids will watch, advertisers will sell products, Oregon gets TV contracts and Oregon's players will tell a story to recruits that keeps them coming to Oregon. As much as I adore the days when CFB wasn't business, it is now. We should own the fact that Oregon starting a facilities arms race fed that as much anything else in CFB.