Another superb FishDuck.com article from Jon Joseph...

College Football 2026 Schedule Previews –

This is the first in a series of articles examining whether a college football (CFB) team’s 2026 schedule will help or hurt with an invitation to the 2026-27 CFB Playoff.  

A Wager on the 2026 Domers to go Over 10.5 Wins is Golden

Jon's research is impressive, and his logic is unassailable. I did not realize what a travesty the schedule of the Fighting Irish was until this article...wow.

Thanks Jon!

Put me down for 11-1, they'll lose a game that shouldn't. I actually don't mind Notre Dame overall at this point. Probably because they have a coach that I actually like in Freeman. Their AD on the other hand is a whiner who should be forced to choose a conference to join.

Spot on fun article, awesome job…they have what looks like a very easy schedule.

That being said, 10.5 is a tricky number. That ain’t 10-2, to state the obvious, that’s 11-1 to win your wager. The tricky games imo:

Wisconsin (at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI) – 7:30 p.m. ET

at North Carolina

at BYU

Miami (FL)

SMU

Am I confident enough to bet they go 4-1 in those 5 games? Tough call.

2 hours ago, Charles Fischer said:

Jon's research is impressive, and his logic is unassailable. I did not realize what a travesty the schedule of the Fighting Irish was until this article...wow.

Thanks Jon!

Thank you, Charles, for another terrific editing job.

The significant difference in the strength of schedules in CFB would not be as much of an issue if the NCAA ran the 'D1' football postseason and the football committee followed the CBB committee and disclosed the metrics it uses to name and seed the field.

Instead, we have a Bowl Extravaganza masquerading as a PO managed by an entertainment company, understandably doing everything in its power to achieve the greatest return on investment.

The bias in favor of ESPN's broadcast partner, the SEC, is obvious, and ESPN does not apologize for the bias. Exhibit A for this bias came after the opening 12-team PO game in 2024-25, when Indiana lost at Notre Dame.

Kirk Herbstreit was quick to name Indiana, with its weak schedule, as unworthy of being in the field. The next night, in front of Herbie, Ohio State destroyed Tennessee. No comment on the Vols not being qualified for the playoffs.

However, IMO, what we have today is a significant improvement from the BCS and the 4-team playoff.

Beat Boise!

15 minutes ago, JabbaNoBargain said:

Wisconsin (at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI) – 7:30 p.m. ET

at North Carolina

at BYU

Miami (FL)

SMU

Honestly, ND's schedule is far from "JOKE", as much as respect Jon's research. They do have 4-5 challenging games. That's about the same as OBD this season - USC, OSU, Michigan, UW? And I think Freeman has learned not to lose cupcake games, so I would wager 11-1 too, with maybe a loss to Miami...

19 minutes ago, DuckFan93 said:

Honestly, ND's schedule is far from "JOKE", as much as respect Jon's research. They do have 4-5 challenging games. That's about the same as OBD this season - USC, OSU, Michigan, UW? And I think Freeman has learned not to lose cupcake games, so I would wager 11-1 too, with maybe a loss to Miami...

Thanks, DF93.

In 2026, OBD plays eight teams that finished with winning records in 2025. Notre Dame plays four, with one of the four a Navy team that is not competitive with the Irish.

ND plays seven games at home, including the SMU and Miami games. Two neutral-site games in Green Bay and Foxborough, MA.

ND plays at Purdue and UNC. Two punching bags. At BYU could be a test, but ND will have a superior roster advantage.

With all due respect to friend Jabba, ND will be a double-digit favorite over Wisconsin, UNC, and SMU in South Bend, favored at BYU, the team ND is playing instead of USC, and a likely favorite over Miami.

If ND were a Power 2 member, it would have a far more difficult schedule. OBD plays Michigan and UW at home, and Ohio State and USC on the road. The Domers play Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Purdue.

Massey ranks ND's strength of schedule No. 67 out of 138 FBS teams. OBD's schedule is ranked No. 25 by Massey. I'd gladly swap the Domers 2026 schedule for Oregon's schedule, as well as Miami's 64th-ranked schedule.

Perhaps Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, Rice, North Carolina, Stanford, BC, and UNC will turn around and finish in the top 25, or at least finish 6-6, but I doubt it.

Thanks again for the comment.

IMHO, Washington, PSU, Michigan, Illinois, USC and Iowa could make the case to go 11-1 if they had Notre Dames schedule.

tOSU, Indiana and Oregon could and probably would go 12-0.

Ask yourself if the Domers would beat tOSU and Michigan on back to back weekends? I am not convinced that OBD's can do it with an almost complete blue-chip roster.

I agree with JJ that I would rather have ND's middle of the pack SOS match ups.