Morning everyone,

This week's article is here and I'm talking about some January chaos, enjoy!

https://open.substack.com/pub/marshduck/p/just-how-close-are-the-ducks-from?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=8foswi

"The defense in the Peach Bowl just melted and didn’t look anything like itself, even compared to the previous game against Indiana. It was predictable and just lacked any new wrinkles."

Likewise the season earlier in the rematch with Ohio State. That game in particular it looked like Oregon's defense expected Ohio State to make no changes in the Rose Bowl from the regular season meeting.

I think Lupoi got exposed and embarrassed by Chip. And then again by Shanahan.

Lupoi is a good coach when it comes to recruiting and player development, maybe great. I am suspect of his play calling and adjustments when the heat is on. Lupoi seemed predictable imo.

We will see this year.

10 minutes ago, HDuck said:

Likewise the season earlier in the rematch with Ohio State. That game in particular it looked like Oregon's defense expected Ohio State to make no changes in the Rose Bowl from the regular season meeting.

I would agree with that. Lanning has a rematch problem that I know I wrote an article about at the end of last season. I might need to republish it.

But from this last season the defense was good against Texas Tech and TT doesn't have the offensive firepower their stats showed but still. But it felt like it didn't get the attention needed.

I am only guessing because I am not in the know... But did Lupoi take his hands off the defense and the lack of leadership not allow for Hampton to take over more when he should have? Could Mehringer taken over more offensive duties from Stein?

Or did Lanning not want to make those changes because he didn't want a chaotic loss to blemish his new picks at coordinator?

Again.. I know nothing and am just saying things.

Thank you, David, for another terrific article.

I'm surprised Dan Lanning didn't melt down in December of 2025.

His DC and OC were off to HC jobs and had to keep the recruits pledged to Cal in Kentucky intact and keep the players they wanted to retain out of the portal. Will and Tosh were not encouraging players to remain at Oregon for another season and continue to play for their DC or OC.

Dan also had to keep the 2026 class in place, try to retain all of the players he wanted to keep on the roster, and bring in the portal players he wanted. This while preparing for a 1st-round PO game against JMU and then dealing with the logistics of playing the next round in Miami. 🤪

A Coach Crazy-making calendar. The Big Ten wanted the portal closed until the playoffs concluded. But the B1G's logical proposal was rejected. Sound familiar?

The CFB calendar penalizes the top teams, which makes no sense. The Protect College Sports Act would provide relief. Like the NFL, there would be restrictions on 'free agency,' penalties for poaching players and coaches before the end of the season, and no coach could be hired by another team before the conclusion of the playoffs.

A 24-team playoff and the additional games are in the valuation process. There is no reason to expand the field if the games are not worth the candles. If the price is right, this will bring an end to conference champ games, which college coaches (except Mario 🙃) would be happy to see disappear.

With a 1st-round bye, a team has to play 15 games to win it all. 16 games if you do not have a 1st-round bye. No coach whose team is a lock for the field wants to play an extra game against a motivated, quality opponent.

A 2025 B12 champ game knocked 12-2 BYU out of the playoffs. (Of course, 10-3 Bama's champ game loss to Georgia didn't count. 🤬)

Indiana went 16-0 with a mature roster and all assistant coaches on deck. The Hoosiers were able to overcome injuries, including a bizarre post-champ-game injury to Indiana's best DL player, but no position group was devastated, and no top backups left for the portal.

It takes skill and luck to win it all. In the champ game, the Miami kicker bounced a FG try off the goalpost. An extra point try by the Indiana kicker hit the upright and bounced through the goalpost. And a special teams blocked punt for a TD was critical to the Indiana win.

It will take skill, luck, and overcoming ridiculous waits between games for OBD to play for it all in Las Vegas on 1/25/27.

Thanks again, David, and Beat Boise!

21 minutes ago, Jon Joseph said:

With a 1st-round bye, a team has to play 15 games to win it all. 16 games if you do not have a 1st-round bye.

Or more likely... Your team got that bye by playing an extra game so it's 16 games anyways.

The "bye" just shifts their bye week. Champ games get open game at the end of the season and the winners get their bye week while the first round goes on. Losers get an extra game with no reward.