2026 Win Totals - Over the Top, or Underwhelming

The long-time Pac-12 football guru, Jon Wilner, has continued to follow all of the former Pac-12 teams post-diaspora.

Below are Jon's Over/Under win total picks for the Big Ten in 2026, as reported on the Mercury News site ($ wall). My thoughts on Jon's predictions, along with a few factoids and opinions for B1G teams in 2026.

I hope many Forum Friends will provide their thoughts on these predictions and critique my picks and comments with those of your own.

Win totals are from the FanDuel gaming site for the regular season only.

Here's the first third of the conference in alphabetical order, with the others to follow later this week.

ILLINOIS - Over 6.5 - Agreed.

When will Bret Bielema receive the credit he deserves?

2024 - Illinois 10-3 with a bowl win over favored South Carolina. 2025 - Illinois 9-4 with a bowl win in Nashville over favored Tennessee.

Key to the season: 5th-year senior Katin Houser comes over from East Carolina to start at QB. Last season, Houser led the Pirates, playing in a deep G6 American Athletic Conference to a 9-4 record and a bowl win over P4 Pittsburgh, and 'The ACC is deeper than the Big Ten', loudmouth coach Pat Narduzzi.

In 2026, Illinois opens its B1G schedule at Ohio State, but plays five conference games at home, including games against Oregon and Iowa, and misses Indiana, Michigan, USC, and Washington.

INDIANA - Under 10.5. Disagree, but with trepidation.

The schedule ramps up from 2025, with games at Michigan and Washington and home games versus Ohio State and USC (OBD also plays these four teams but in opposite venues).

Key to the season: Cignetti has not lost a game in Bloomington and has brought in an excellent group of players from the portal, including QB Josh Hoover from TCU.

Hoover comes to Indiana to play for QB-whisperer Cignetti and OC Mike Shanahan, with Cignetti since 2016, and with more starts and wins than Fernando Mendoza.

He doesn't have to win the Heisman to be successful. If Hoover can cut down on the turnovers, this roster could equal or be better than the roster that finished 16-0 with a championship.

But 11 wins is a B1G ask.

IOWA - Over 7.5. Agree. Death, taxes, and Kirk Ferentz with at least eight wins.

After a brutal B1G start: at Michigan, Ohio State, and at Washington, the schedule lightens up. With the Iowa State team now at Penn State, the Hawkeyes should go 3-0 out of conference. The Hawkeyes miss Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, and USC.

Key to the season: You can bet that DC Phil Parker will put another excellent defense on the field. Will either QB Jeremy Hecklinski or Hank Brown not foul up too badly and put the defense at a disadvantage?

MARYLAND - Under 5.5. Agreed, and so long, Coach Locks?

As has been asked before: What do Maryland and Rutgers do with the money?

Keys to the season. With no bowl game, simply avoid injuries.

MICHIGAN - Over 8.5, but it will be close.

Michigan and new coach Kyle Whittingham have the advantage of playing eight games in the Big House. But the schedule?

Oklahoma, Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana visit Ann Arbor. And the Wolverines play Oregon and Ohio State on the road. Whew!

Key to the season: Will OC Jason Beck, who followed Whit from Utah, be able to improve QB Bryce Underwood's play as he did last season at Utah with QB Devon Dampier?

Last season, Utah finished 2025 with a very quiet 11-2 behind a solid run game and good QB play.

This season, the Michigan run game, with Jordan Marshall, 932 yards rushing and 10 TDs in 2025, and 5* top-ranked RB Savion Hitier running the ball behind an experienced O-line, should be very good, but can the passing game be at least serviceable?

Underwood, who was 17 years young at the start of last season and with a dysfunctional coaching staff, still led Michigan to a 9-4 record, 7-2 in conference.

If Underwood improves, Michigan, with a defense with quality players back and solid portal additions, will be a PO contender.

MICHIGAN STATE - Under 4.5. Agree.

Coach Pat Fitzgerald should be a great fit, but the 2026 schedule is too difficult for a team that lost many of its best players to the portal, including WR Nick Marsh now at Indiana (without his gold shoes 😁).

Out-of-conference games versus Toledo and at Notre Dame, road games against Wisconsin, UCLA, and Michigan, and home games against Washington, Northwestern with Aiden Chiles at QB, Nebraska, Illinois, and Oregon, well, a bowl game is at least a year off.

Key to the season: The play of QB Alessio Milojevic, who played well after taking the starting spot from Aiden Chiles, will have to remain solid, with Fitzgerald being hired late in the cycle and many of his teammates transferring to other programs.

Where do you think Jon Wilner and Jon Joseph err?

Next up, another B1G six-pack, but not in alphabetical order. I'm saving the two B1G O-Os for last.

BEAT BOISE!