The long-time Pac-12 football guru, Jon Wilner, has continued to follow all of the former Pac-12 teams post-diaspora.

Below are Jon's Over/Under win total picks for the Big Ten in 2026, as reported on the Mercury News site ($ wall). My thoughts on Jon's predictions, along with a few factoids and opinions for B1G teams in 2026.

I hope many Forum Friends will provide their thoughts on these predictions and critique my picks and comments with those of your own.

Win totals are from the FanDuel gaming site for the regular season only.

Here's the first third of the conference in alphabetical order, with the others to follow later this week.

ILLINOIS - Over 6.5 - Agreed.

When will Bret Bielema receive the credit he deserves?

2024 - Illinois 10-3 with a bowl win over favored South Carolina. 2025 - Illinois 9-4 with a bowl win in Nashville over favored Tennessee.

Key to the season: 5th-year senior Katin Houser comes over from East Carolina to start at QB. Last season, Houser led the Pirates, playing in a deep G6 American Athletic Conference to a 9-4 record and a bowl win over P4 Pittsburgh, and 'The ACC is deeper than the Big Ten', loudmouth coach Pat Narduzzi.

In 2026, Illinois opens its B1G schedule at Ohio State, but plays five conference games at home, including games against Oregon and Iowa, and misses Indiana, Michigan, USC, and Washington.

INDIANA - Under 10.5. Disagree, but with trepidation.

The schedule ramps up from 2025, with games at Michigan and Washington and home games versus Ohio State and USC (OBD also plays these four teams but in opposite venues).

Key to the season: Cignetti has not lost a game in Bloomington and has brought in an excellent group of players from the portal, including QB Josh Hoover from TCU.

Hoover comes to Indiana to play for QB-whisperer Cignetti and OC Mike Shanahan, with Cignetti since 2016, and with more starts and wins than Fernando Mendoza.

He doesn't have to win the Heisman to be successful. If Hoover can cut down on the turnovers, this roster could equal or be better than the roster that finished 16-0 with a championship.

But 11 wins is a B1G ask.

IOWA - Over 7.5. Agree. Death, taxes, and Kirk Ferentz with at least eight wins.

After a brutal B1G start: at Michigan, Ohio State, and at Washington, the schedule lightens up. With the Iowa State team now at Penn State, the Hawkeyes should go 3-0 out of conference. The Hawkeyes miss Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, and USC.

Key to the season: You can bet that DC Phil Parker will put another excellent defense on the field. Will either QB Jeremy Hecklinski or Hank Brown not foul up too badly and put the defense at a disadvantage?

MARYLAND - Under 5.5. Agreed, and so long, Coach Locks?

As has been asked before: What do Maryland and Rutgers do with the money?

Keys to the season. With no bowl game, simply avoid injuries.

MICHIGAN - Over 8.5, but it will be close.

Michigan and new coach Kyle Whittingham have the advantage of playing eight games in the Big House. But the schedule?

Oklahoma, Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana visit Ann Arbor. And the Wolverines play Oregon and Ohio State on the road. Whew!

Key to the season: Will OC Jason Beck, who followed Whit from Utah, be able to improve QB Bryce Underwood's play as he did last season at Utah with QB Devon Dampier?

Last season, Utah finished 2025 with a very quiet 11-2 behind a solid run game and good QB play.

This season, the Michigan run game, with Jordan Marshall, 932 yards rushing and 10 TDs in 2025, and 5* top-ranked RB Savion Hitier running the ball behind an experienced O-line, should be very good, but can the passing game be at least serviceable?

Underwood, who was 17 years young at the start of last season and with a dysfunctional coaching staff, still led Michigan to a 9-4 record, 7-2 in conference.

If Underwood improves, Michigan, with a defense with quality players back and solid portal additions, will be a PO contender.

MICHIGAN STATE - Under 4.5. Agree.

Coach Pat Fitzgerald should be a great fit, but the 2026 schedule is too difficult for a team that lost many of its best players to the portal, including WR Nick Marsh now at Indiana (without his gold shoes 😁).

Out-of-conference games versus Toledo and at Notre Dame, road games against Wisconsin, UCLA, and Michigan, and home games against Washington, Northwestern with Aiden Chiles at QB, Nebraska, Illinois, and Oregon, well, a bowl game is at least a year off.

Key to the season: The play of QB Alessio Milojevic, who played well after taking the starting spot from Aiden Chiles, will have to remain solid, with Fitzgerald being hired late in the cycle and many of his teammates transferring to other programs.

Where do you think Jon Wilner and Jon Joseph err?

Next up, another B1G six-pack, but not in alphabetical order. I'm saving the two B1G O-Os for last.

BEAT BOISE!

Indiana has published their non-conference schedule through 2030. They have 3 annual non-conference, all games at home. NONE of them are from a major football conference. Not just Power4, but not a competent Group of 6 such as Memphis, Tulane, Boise State, etc. either.

The last Power4 non-conference was Louisville in 2023 in Indianapolis.

They should start every season 3-0 before entering the 9-game Big Ten schedule. And, not spend much energy in getting those 3 wins.

Cignetti is age 65. His age trails only Belichick, Ferentz, Whittingham and Fritz (Houston)

OLD GUYS RULE!

Well….maybe.

Michigan is a real tough one to me--fantastic coach with more talent to work with? If the young QB catches fire....they could be quite a surprise.

So many breakout candidates...because your points about Illinois are absolutely true, and certainly they, Penn State, Iowa, and USC are all flirting with 10 win seasons.

The 'Cig already stunned everyone....he won't do it again...will he?

The coaching in the Big-10 is brutal...

Pat Forde - Sports Illustrated - 2026, 25 Intriguing CFB QBs -

The B1G Boys on Pat's list will be instrumental in whether a team goes over or under its win total.

SI

Pat Forde: The 25 Most Intriguing College Football Quarte...

A controversial in-conference move, a famous name looking to take a leap and a signal-caller with another year of eligibility top our list.

No. 4 - Josh Hoover - Indiana - No better QB whisperers than Cig and OC Shanahan. Google it 😁.

No. 6 - Bryce Underwood - Michigan - Will he improve under new and functional management?

No. 11 - Dante Moore - Mighty Oregon - "An excellent pro prospect". Will he become 'B1G and Big Game Dante' under new OC Drew Mehringer and behind a 'new' O-line?

No. 13 (😁) - Julian Sayin - Ohio State - A Heisman finalist who looked anything but in the last two games in 2025-26. Another QB with a new OC, Arthur Smith, joining the Buckeyes from the Pittsburgh Steelers.

No. 15 - Rocco Becht - Penn State - Rocco comes into 2026 as the CFB QB with the most wins as a starter: 26 wins and 12-7 in one-score games, including last season's 16-13 win over Iowa.

With the same OC he played for at Iowa State, and many other former Cyclones teammates surrounding him, plus three OOC cupcakes, should have Rocco ready to go against B1G competition.

No. 18 - Demond Williams - He disappeared on the road last season and almost disappeared to Baton Rouge. He should improve on the road this season; UW's two Eastern Time Zone games are against Purdue and Michigan State.

Williams will be tested at USC the week after OBD plays SC in LA, and at Oregon on November 28th, coming off a home game against Indiana.

No. 20 - Nico Iamaleava - UCLA, and Jayden Maiava - USC. Oregon plays SC and Maiava in LA in Week 4, is off in Week 5, before hosting UCLA in Week 6.

Nico is now surrounded by a new cast of coaches and 42 new players. Considering the results in 2025, this is good for Nico and UCLA.

In 2025, Jayden Maiava did not lose a home game, but he did lose his two top receivers to the NFL.

Week 2 - No. 16 Drew Mestemaker - Oklahoma State - the leading passer with over 4,000 passing yards in FBS in 2025. Drew will be surrounded by familiar North Texas players and coaches in Stillwater.

A second B1G Win Total six-pack.

MINNESOTA - Over 6.5 - Agree.

PJ Fleck enters his 10th season of rowing the Golden Gophers boat. To date, Fleck is 66-44 at Minnesota and a perfect 7-0 in bowl games. In 2026, I think Minnesota wins eight or more games and gives Fleck the chance to go 8-0.

In 2026, Minnesota is the only Big Ten team that returns its head coach, offense coordinator, defense coordinator, and starting quarterback. Wow!

QB Drake Lindsey returns after throwing for 2382 yards, 18 TDs, and 6 Interceptions in 2025. At 6'5" tall and 230 pounds, Lindsey is on NFL teams' watch lists.

Preseason All-American Edge Anthony Smith was 1st-team All-Big Ten in 2025, posting 38 tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, and a conference-leading 12.5 sacks. Smith is the Big Ten preseason defense Player of the Year.

Minnesota lost safety Koi Perich to Oregon, but Smith, despite receiving interest from many programs, decided to stay in Minneapolis.

Key to the season. Get the run game going again. In 2025, Minnesota's usually solid run game struggled, averaging only 103.2 yards a game.

The Gophers' best running back, Darius Taylor, missed much of last season with injuries. Taylor is back, healthy and ready to take some of the pressure off Lindsey. In 2025, Lindsey was sacked 21 times and completed only 60% of his throws.

In addition to Ohio State at Texas and Oklahoma at Michigan, Week 2 features another B1G vs. SEC matchup when Mississippi State plays at Minnesota. These are the only matchups in the regular season between Power 2 teams. Hopefully, the Gophers will get the B1G win.

NEBRASKA - Over 6.5 - Agree.

In addition to an OOC buffet of three out-of-conference cupcakes, the Cornhuskers play Michigan State, Rutgers, and Maryland.

This is serendipitous scheduling for Coach Matt Ruhle, who is 2-25 against top-25 opponents, 0-8 at Nebraska, and plays Ohio State and Indiana at home and is on the road at Oregon, Washington, Iowa, and an Illinois team that is just outside the top 25.

Key to the season. You may have heard that QB Dylan Raiola transferred to Oregon. If 2025 Mountain West Player of the Year QB Anthony Colandrea, coming to Lincoln from UNLV, can play close to how he played for Dan Mullen last season, I think Nebraska will find a seventh win.

FWIW, Nebraska OC Dana Holgorson believes dual-threat Colandrea is a better fit for his system. 🤔

NORTHWESTERN - Under 5.5. Disagree.

Key to the season. Will new Wildcats OC Chip Kelly improve QB Aiden Chiles' game?

Key Game. Northwestern needs to defeat CU at Medicine Field in Week 2, before moving into renovated Ryan Field and playing Penn State in Week 4. A win over the Buffaloes should be one of at least six wins.

PURDUE - Over 3.5. Agree.

Key to the season. In Coach Barry Odom's second season, the Boilermakers should show modest improvement but still have a long way to go to be competitive in the Big Ten.

Playing 11 Power 4 opponents in 2026 will not help Purdue's cause. In addition to opening against Indiana State, Purdue plays Wake Forest and Notre Dame out of conference. The good news is that all three are home games.

RUTGERS - Under 4.5. Agree.

Key to the season. In 2025, Coach Schiano's Rutgers defense was the worst he has put on the field in Piscataway.

Wide receiver KJ Duff and RB Antwan Ray are preseason All-Americans. Will new DC Travis Johansen, coming in from the same position with South Dakota and with no P4 coaching experience, give Duff, Ray, and the offense some help?

Most-asked question: What does Rutgers do with that B1G money?

WISCONSIN - Over 7.5. Agree.

With Colton Joseph coming in from Old Dominion to play QB, how can I not take the over? 😁

Newport Beach product Joseph is a dual-threat QB. In 2025, he led ODU to a 10-3 record, passing for 2624 yards, 21 TDs, and 10 INTs. He ran for 1007 yards, 6.4 yards per carry, and 13 TDs.

On the 1st play from scrimmage in the opening game against Indiana, he ran for 75 yards and a 7-0 ODU lead, one of the very few times Indiana trailed last season.

Even though Wisconsin opens against Notre Dame in Green Bay, the 2026 schedule is much easier than the 2025 gauntlet.

Wisconsin plays Penn State, UCLA, and Iowa on the road, but plays USC and Minnesota at home and also draws Rutgers, Maryland, and Purdue, while missing Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, and Washington.

Keys to the season. There is bad luck, but should the fates be this fickle?

Under Coach Fickell, due to injuries, the starting QB coming out of Fall camp has started 11 of 37 games. Wisconsin has to keep Joseph healthy. Colton is a weapon in the run game, and he will get hit.

Speaking of the run game. Under Luke Fickell, Wisconsin is 11-0 when rushing the ball for 150 yards or more. When running for fewer than 150 yards, the Badgers have won one game.

Bucky, get back to your roots and run the 🤬ball!

Agree on the over/under calls? Let me know because I am often wrong and often in doubt.

Coming up: OBD, TOSU, PSU, UCLA, USC, and UWho.

It looks like a ton of B1G teams will have respectable records this year, and again--the disparity in scheduling is so puzzling. Great stuff Jon!