The long-time Pac-12 football guru, Jon Wilner, has continued to follow all of the former Pac-12 teams post-diaspora.

Below are Jon's Over/Under win total picks for the Big Ten in 2026, as reported on the Mercury News site ($ wall). My thoughts on Jon's predictions, along with a few factoids and opinions for B1G teams in 2026.

I hope many Forum Friends will provide their thoughts on these predictions and critique my picks and comments with those of your own.

Win totals are from the FanDuel gaming site for the regular season only.

Here's the first third of the conference in alphabetical order, with the others to follow later this week.

ILLINOIS - Over 6.5 - Agreed.

When will Bret Bielema receive the credit he deserves?

2024 - Illinois 10-3 with a bowl win over favored South Carolina. 2025 - Illinois 9-4 with a bowl win in Nashville over favored Tennessee.

Key to the season: 5th-year senior Katin Houser comes over from East Carolina to start at QB. Last season, Houser led the Pirates, playing in a deep G6 American Athletic Conference to a 9-4 record and a bowl win over P4 Pittsburgh, and 'The ACC is deeper than the Big Ten', loudmouth coach Pat Narduzzi.

In 2026, Illinois opens its B1G schedule at Ohio State, but plays five conference games at home, including games against Oregon and Iowa, and misses Indiana, Michigan, USC, and Washington.

INDIANA - Under 10.5. Disagree, but with trepidation.

The schedule ramps up from 2025, with games at Michigan and Washington and home games versus Ohio State and USC (OBD also plays these four teams but in opposite venues).

Key to the season: Cignetti has not lost a game in Bloomington and has brought in an excellent group of players from the portal, including QB Josh Hoover from TCU.

Hoover comes to Indiana to play for QB-whisperer Cignetti and OC Mike Shanahan, with Cignetti since 2016, and with more starts and wins than Fernando Mendoza.

He doesn't have to win the Heisman to be successful. If Hoover can cut down on the turnovers, this roster could equal or be better than the roster that finished 16-0 with a championship.

But 11 wins is a B1G ask.

IOWA - Over 7.5. Agree. Death, taxes, and Kirk Ferentz with at least eight wins.

After a brutal B1G start: at Michigan, Ohio State, and at Washington, the schedule lightens up. With the Iowa State team now at Penn State, the Hawkeyes should go 3-0 out of conference. The Hawkeyes miss Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, and USC.

Key to the season: You can bet that DC Phil Parker will put another excellent defense on the field. Will either QB Jeremy Hecklinski or Hank Brown not foul up too badly and put the defense at a disadvantage?

MARYLAND - Under 5.5. Agreed, and so long, Coach Locks?

As has been asked before: What do Maryland and Rutgers do with the money?

Keys to the season. With no bowl game, simply avoid injuries.

MICHIGAN - Over 8.5, but it will be close.

Michigan and new coach Kyle Whittingham have the advantage of playing eight games in the Big House. But the schedule?

Oklahoma, Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana visit Ann Arbor. And the Wolverines play Oregon and Ohio State on the road. Whew!

Key to the season: Will OC Jason Beck, who followed Whit from Utah, be able to improve QB Bryce Underwood's play as he did last season at Utah with QB Devon Dampier?

Last season, Utah finished 2025 with a very quiet 11-2 behind a solid run game and good QB play.

This season, the Michigan run game, with Jordan Marshall, 932 yards rushing and 10 TDs in 2025, and 5* top-ranked RB Savion Hitier running the ball behind an experienced O-line, should be very good, but can the passing game be at least serviceable?

Underwood, who was 17 years young at the start of last season and with a dysfunctional coaching staff, still led Michigan to a 9-4 record, 7-2 in conference.

If Underwood improves, Michigan, with a defense with quality players back and solid portal additions, will be a PO contender.

MICHIGAN STATE - Under 4.5. Agree.

Coach Pat Fitzgerald should be a great fit, but the 2026 schedule is too difficult for a team that lost many of its best players to the portal, including WR Nick Marsh now at Indiana (without his gold shoes 😁).

Out-of-conference games versus Toledo and at Notre Dame, road games against Wisconsin, UCLA, and Michigan, and home games against Washington, Northwestern with Aiden Chiles at QB, Nebraska, Illinois, and Oregon, well, a bowl game is at least a year off.

Key to the season: The play of QB Alessio Milojevic, who played well after taking the starting spot from Aiden Chiles, will have to remain solid, with Fitzgerald being hired late in the cycle and many of his teammates transferring to other programs.

Where do you think Jon Wilner and Jon Joseph err?

Next up, another B1G six-pack, but not in alphabetical order. I'm saving the two B1G O-Os for last.

BEAT BOISE!

Indiana has published their non-conference schedule through 2030. They have 3 annual non-conference, all games at home. NONE of them are from a major football conference. Not just Power4, but not a competent Group of 6 such as Memphis, Tulane, Boise State, etc. either.

The last Power4 non-conference was Louisville in 2023 in Indianapolis.

They should start every season 3-0 before entering the 9-game Big Ten schedule. And, not spend much energy in getting those 3 wins.

Cignetti is age 65. His age trails only Belichick, Ferentz, Whittingham and Fritz (Houston)

OLD GUYS RULE!

Well….maybe.

Michigan is a real tough one to me--fantastic coach with more talent to work with? If the young QB catches fire....they could be quite a surprise.

So many breakout candidates...because your points about Illinois are absolutely true, and certainly they, Penn State, Iowa, and USC are all flirting with 10 win seasons.

The 'Cig already stunned everyone....he won't do it again...will he?

The coaching in the Big-10 is brutal...

Pat Forde - Sports Illustrated - 2026, 25 Intriguing CFB QBs -

The B1G Boys on Pat's list will be instrumental in whether a team goes over or under its win total.

SI

Pat Forde: The 25 Most Intriguing College Football Quarte...

A controversial in-conference move, a famous name looking to take a leap and a signal-caller with another year of eligibility top our list.

No. 4 - Josh Hoover - Indiana - No better QB whisperers than Cig and OC Shanahan. Google it 😁.

No. 6 - Bryce Underwood - Michigan - Will he improve under new and functional management?

No. 11 - Dante Moore - Mighty Oregon - "An excellent pro prospect". Will he become 'B1G and Big Game Dante' under new OC Drew Mehringer and behind a 'new' O-line?

No. 13 (😁) - Julian Sayin - Ohio State - A Heisman finalist who looked anything but in the last two games in 2025-26. Another QB with a new OC, Arthur Smith, joining the Buckeyes from the Pittsburgh Steelers.

No. 15 - Rocco Becht - Penn State - Rocco comes into 2026 as the CFB QB with the most wins as a starter: 26 wins and 12-7 in one-score games, including last season's 16-13 win over Iowa.

With the same OC he played for at Iowa State, and many other former Cyclones teammates surrounding him, plus three OOC cupcakes, should have Rocco ready to go against B1G competition.

No. 18 - Demond Williams - He disappeared on the road last season and almost disappeared to Baton Rouge. He should improve on the road this season; UW's two Eastern Time Zone games are against Purdue and Michigan State.

Williams will be tested at USC the week after OBD plays SC in LA, and at Oregon on November 28th, coming off a home game against Indiana.

No. 20 - Nico Iamaleava - UCLA, and Jayden Maiava - USC. Oregon plays SC and Maiava in LA in Week 4, is off in Week 5, before hosting UCLA in Week 6.

Nico is now surrounded by a new cast of coaches and 42 new players. Considering the results in 2025, this is good for Nico and UCLA.

In 2025, Jayden Maiava did not lose a home game, but he did lose his two top receivers to the NFL.

Week 2 - No. 16 Drew Mestemaker - Oklahoma State - the leading passer with over 4,000 passing yards in FBS in 2025. Drew will be surrounded by familiar North Texas players and coaches in Stillwater.

A second B1G Win Total six-pack.

MINNESOTA - Over 6.5 - Agree.

PJ Fleck enters his 10th season of rowing the Golden Gophers boat. To date, Fleck is 66-44 at Minnesota and a perfect 7-0 in bowl games. In 2026, I think Minnesota wins eight or more games and gives Fleck the chance to go 8-0.

In 2026, Minnesota is the only Big Ten team that returns its head coach, offense coordinator, defense coordinator, and starting quarterback. Wow!

QB Drake Lindsey returns after throwing for 2382 yards, 18 TDs, and 6 Interceptions in 2025. At 6'5" tall and 230 pounds, Lindsey is on NFL teams' watch lists.

Preseason All-American Edge Anthony Smith was 1st-team All-Big Ten in 2025, posting 38 tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, and a conference-leading 12.5 sacks. Smith is the Big Ten preseason defense Player of the Year.

Minnesota lost safety Koi Perich to Oregon, but Smith, despite receiving interest from many programs, decided to stay in Minneapolis.

Key to the season. Get the run game going again. In 2025, Minnesota's usually solid run game struggled, averaging only 103.2 yards a game.

The Gophers' best running back, Darius Taylor, missed much of last season with injuries. Taylor is back, healthy and ready to take some of the pressure off Lindsey. In 2025, Lindsey was sacked 21 times and completed only 60% of his throws.

In addition to Ohio State at Texas and Oklahoma at Michigan, Week 2 features another B1G vs. SEC matchup when Mississippi State plays at Minnesota. These are the only matchups in the regular season between Power 2 teams. Hopefully, the Gophers will get the B1G win.

NEBRASKA - Over 6.5 - Agree.

In addition to an OOC buffet of three out-of-conference cupcakes, the Cornhuskers play Michigan State, Rutgers, and Maryland.

This is serendipitous scheduling for Coach Matt Ruhle, who is 2-25 against top-25 opponents, 0-8 at Nebraska, and plays Ohio State and Indiana at home and is on the road at Oregon, Washington, Iowa, and an Illinois team that is just outside the top 25.

Key to the season. You may have heard that QB Dylan Raiola transferred to Oregon. If 2025 Mountain West Player of the Year QB Anthony Colandrea, coming to Lincoln from UNLV, can play close to how he played for Dan Mullen last season, I think Nebraska will find a seventh win.

FWIW, Nebraska OC Dana Holgorson believes dual-threat Colandrea is a better fit for his system. 🤔

NORTHWESTERN - Under 5.5. Disagree.

Key to the season. Will new Wildcats OC Chip Kelly improve QB Aiden Chiles' game?

Key Game. Northwestern needs to defeat CU at Medicine Field in Week 2, before moving into renovated Ryan Field and playing Penn State in Week 4. A win over the Buffaloes should be one of at least six wins.

PURDUE - Over 3.5. Agree.

Key to the season. In Coach Barry Odom's second season, the Boilermakers should show modest improvement but still have a long way to go to be competitive in the Big Ten.

Playing 11 Power 4 opponents in 2026 will not help Purdue's cause. In addition to opening against Indiana State, Purdue plays Wake Forest and Notre Dame out of conference. The good news is that all three are home games.

RUTGERS - Under 4.5. Agree.

Key to the season. In 2025, Coach Schiano's Rutgers defense was the worst he has put on the field in Piscataway.

Wide receiver KJ Duff and RB Antwan Ray are preseason All-Americans. Will new DC Travis Johansen, coming in from the same position with South Dakota and with no P4 coaching experience, give Duff, Ray, and the offense some help?

Most-asked question: What does Rutgers do with that B1G money?

WISCONSIN - Over 7.5. Agree.

With Colton Joseph coming in from Old Dominion to play QB, how can I not take the over? 😁

Newport Beach product Joseph is a dual-threat QB. In 2025, he led ODU to a 10-3 record, passing for 2624 yards, 21 TDs, and 10 INTs. He ran for 1007 yards, 6.4 yards per carry, and 13 TDs.

On the 1st play from scrimmage in the opening game against Indiana, he ran for 75 yards and a 7-0 ODU lead, one of the very few times Indiana trailed last season.

Even though Wisconsin opens against Notre Dame in Green Bay, the 2026 schedule is much easier than the 2025 gauntlet.

Wisconsin plays Penn State, UCLA, and Iowa on the road, but plays USC and Minnesota at home and also draws Rutgers, Maryland, and Purdue, while missing Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, and Washington.

Keys to the season. There is bad luck, but should the fates be this fickle?

Under Coach Fickell, due to injuries, the starting QB coming out of Fall camp has started 11 of 37 games. Wisconsin has to keep Joseph healthy. Colton is a weapon in the run game, and he will get hit.

Speaking of the run game. Under Luke Fickell, Wisconsin is 11-0 when rushing the ball for 150 yards or more. When running for fewer than 150 yards, the Badgers have won one game.

Bucky, get back to your roots and run the 🤬ball!

Agree on the over/under calls? Let me know because I am often wrong and often in doubt.

Coming up: OBD, TOSU, PSU, UCLA, USC, and UWho.

It looks like a ton of B1G teams will have respectable records this year, and again--the disparity in scheduling is so puzzling. Great stuff Jon!

1 hour ago, Charles Fischer said:

It looks like a ton of B1G teams will have respectable records this year, and again--the disparity in scheduling is so puzzling. Great stuff Jon!

Thank you, Charles. FWIW, of the 12 B1G teams I've looked at so far, eight would be bowl-eligible with six or more wins.

In 2025, every P4 conference had six teams that won five or fewer games.

The SEC was so deep that 37.5% of the conference needed SCUBA gear. 😁

On 8/14/2026 at 9:13 AM, Jon Joseph said:

37.5% of the conference needed SCUBA gear

Or an undertaker.

The final B1G win total six-pack includes the four programs that escaped the Pac, with Oregon and Washington catching the last B1G plane out.

It's all good even though the Northwest teams are traveling coach through 2030.

PENN STATE - Under 9.5 - Agree.

The Big Ten is rolling out the scheduling red carpet for Matt Campbell and the other Cyclones who blew into Happy Valley. No Indiana, Ohio State, or Oregon on the schedule, and USC visits after consecutive home games vs. Oregon and Washington in Weeks 4 and 5.

Week 4: PSU entertains Wisconsin, and Week 5 is at Northwestern for the opening game at renovated Ryan Field. Not easy, but Wisconsin and Northwestern are not going to contend for a Big Ten championship, as will SC and UW. SC's visit to Beaver Stadium will be in White Out conditions.

Penn State plays three donut holes out of conference, and in addition to Wisconsin and Northwestern, the Nittany Lions play Purdue, Minnesota, and Rutgers at home and finish the season with a game at Maryland.

Other than the SC game and games at Michigan and Washington, Penn State will be favored in every game, and if it can win one of the SC, Michigan, or Washington games, the team could be in the playoff field mix.

But I don't see Penn State, even with Rocco Becht at QB, coming in 26 wins, the most in CFB, and surrounded by familiar coaching and player faces, winning ten games. There will be at least one burp.

UCLA - Over 6.5 - Agree.

Like Coach Cignetti, Bob Chesney comes to Westwood with winning records wherever he has coached, including taking James Madison to the 2025 playoffs, something Cignetti did not accomplish.

The JMU defense was overwhelmed by Oregon in the first half of the first-round 2025 playoff game in Autzen. But JMU never quit, putting up 34 points on the Oregon defense.

Chesney cleaned house in Westwood. 62 new players are on the roster, 42 transfers, 10 coming in from JMU, and 20 1st-year players, who used to be referred to as Freshmen.

The schedule is not Penn State Lite, but it is the Big Ten's 15th-easiest schedule, and I think UCLA will win eight or more games and be a tough out in every contest, including the Week 6 visit to Autzen.

Like Kyle Whittingham at Michigan, Matt Campbell at Penn State, and Pat Fitzgerald at Michigan State, Chesney at UCLA is a terrific hire, as is already shown by currently being ranked 17th in the Rivals recruiting rankings.

This guy will be a pain in the Ducks' tail feathers.

USC - Under 8.5 - Disagree.

Oh, spit, this is it for Linc and the Trojans. The hierarchy in South Central has been aligned, and the wallets have been opened. 15 starters are back, the most in college football.

The schedule is one of the most difficult in the nation and the B1G. But San Jose State replaces Notre Dame, and two of the B1G's 2025 playoff teams, Oregon and Ohio State, visit LA, as does Washington.

Last season, SC did not lose a home game, including solid wins over Iowa and Michigan.

SC does travel to Happy Valley to play Penn State, to Bloomington to play Indiana, and goes cross-town to play UCLA. But the Trojans play at Rutgers and Wisconsin, and play Maryland at home.

I think SC easily covers the 8.5, and if Gary Patterson can get the defense to play with more consistency and cohesiveness, and the team doesn't choke on the road, for the first time since Linc arrived, SC should be in the playoff field.

WASHINGTON - Over 7.5. Agree and then some.

UW at 7.5 wins is one of the best over value bets on the board. UW does have to travel to SC, but fortunately, the week after Oregon visits LA. Iowa and Indiana visit Seattle, and the two games in the Eastern Time Zone are against Purdue and Michigan State.

Washington brings back a very good, experienced QB in Demond Williams, is well coached, and after going 9-4 in 2025 with an impressive bowl win over Boise State, the Huskies are another B1G team with legitimate playoff hopes.

OHIO STATE - Under 9.5 - Disagree.

Coming into 2025, it was The Ohio State University, as it was during the season, with the Buckeyes going undefeated against Texas and an otherwise relatively easy schedule. Then came a 0-2 postseason wake-up call where, against Indiana and Miami, the Buckeyes' O-line and, consequently, Heisman finalist QB Julian Sayin, collapsed.

In many preseason polls, Ohio State is ranked No. 1. But the schedule is brutal, and yes, four starters on the 2024 O-line are back, but will the unit as a whole show significant improvement against top-drawer competition?

I do see Ohio State winning at least ten games and returning to the playoff, but at Texas, USC, Indiana, Iowa, and at home against OBD and Michigan? Whew!

OREGON - Over 10.5. Agree.

But it won't be easy, especially with a November slate of Ohio State on the road, Michigan, Michigan State on the road for a Friday night game with a 7:30 local time kickoff, and back home to play Washington in the eighth consecutive game without a break. MERCY!

The contributors to this fantastic Forum cover, ponder, and discuss OBD in depth. I do not have an epiphany or a revelation regarding Oregon football beyond what Forum friends provide.

If my musings ring true, only four Big Ten teams will not be bowl-eligible in 2026, two fewer than last season, and like 2024, I believe four Big Ten teams will be in the playoff field.

SO, BEAT BOISE!