Will The Real Oregon Ducks Please Stand Up 

For the last 8 months I've wondered whether or not my beloved Ducks are really capable of winning a National Championship. For a brief moment, after we beat Texas Tech, I thought they really had a chance.  Alas, gold plated performances are far different than the real McCoy. I'm not sure Oregon is a Phantom Menace or not, but I do know this-everything Dan Lanning assumed about his vaunted team has dissolved like Alka Seltzer pills falling in your glass.  And believe me, we need some relief from the stress.

Echoes of a dreadful demise haunted my mind as we all witnessed Our boys resemble a live version of the Walking Dead.  The slow-motion train wreck in Stillwater wasn't the nuclear detonation Chris Peterson's Fuskies dropped on Eugene in 2016. But the feeling was the same in my mind.  Our Beloved Ducks were in slow motion, and Oklahoma State and those Damn Fuskies were in high gear.

I promised you some diagrams to show you what I have observed the past few months.  Instead, I am going to drop a couple of videos.  One of the Defense this past week, and one of the Offense-from the Peach Bowl (you’ll understand why later).  I do so with two main motivations: 1) I really don’t want the general public to get a full grasp of what I see-knowing the experts have already figured it out. 

 

Secondly, I just don’t have the time to go into massive detail-I am not on Oregon’s payroll, or anyone else’s-but I recognize quite a few things that must have Coordinators salivating all over the country.  I have said this before-if this Hack can figure it out, the professionals are all over this. Some say Oklahoma State let the cat out of the bag last week.  I don’t think so. 

The concerns I have seen have been on my mind since OBD took Ohio State down in Eugene.  Our coaching staff truly plays to their tendencies-to the degree I believe confirmation bias set hold this summer.  Boise State, Oklahoma State AND Portland State knew exactly what to attack.

 

Because I believe the Defense is the weak link, I am starting with that unit.  And trust me, I am going to be very brief because some very intelligent people already know the tip of the iceberg I am going to reveal.  Before I try to remain brief on the group, I want to explain something very important.  Dan Lanning knows his team very, very well. He has been masterful at masking some key fundamental weaknesses. 

Let’s get into it…

Lanning is married to the Mint Defense.  It is his second love behind his wife and kids.  So much so, that he is willing to alter the makeup of its fundamentals in order to suit his talent deficient personnel (in contrast to the over abundant wave of talent he led at Georgia).  The Linebackers have been the most vulnerable of the group within the unit.  That still applies today, but this unit resembles the 2024 version of the unit-light LBs bracketed by a talented set of lineman and defensive backs.

Now the problem this year is the defensive backs have been tasked to cover so much field, they can’t cover ANY of the field.  I am not going to break down why, and it won’t look obvious in the video.  I will explain that in the comments as we discuss this.  Now I hope to have enough screen shots for you by Friday-so we all will get an idea of the nightmare Lanning has on his hands.  But I will simply post the video below for your entertainment.

 

It is a three and out series, but boy, Portland State knew exactly what to attack. They simply don’t have the horses to execute like the elite teams have, unless some real changes are implemented the rest of the season.

 

I will summarize it like this: Boise State and Oklahoma State recognized Oregon is running a tight Mint look to protect their smaller LBs.  They keep the safeties deep to foil explosive passing plays.  The result is there is so much room left open, the Pioneers from the 1700s and 1800s want to explore that territory.  Again, I’ll drum up some screenshots from previous games OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS to support my theory. 

I will end this section by saying all is not lost, but I have to show you the standard for Defenses over the course of the season because there is much to discuss.  There is so much to cover-but it must take this full season for me to show you-I simply don’t have enough time to drum up an ESPN/FOX and elite YouTube show for you-as much as I would like to.  Here is the video for now.

 

https://youtu.be/3pu8TLzTQl0?si=Nez1zsj03oXVEPX7

 

Now the Offense. I want you all to take a close look at this video. I cut the sound so you can simply watch a masterpiece in action.  THIS is what I am talking about when I mention throwing teams off the scent.  Indiana was completely unprepared for the formations, plays, and sequencing in this drive. 

 

https://youtu.be/EDIeYDTroKo

 

 If OBD are going to make a run at the Natty, these are the kinds of things that must happen.  Some plays under center.  Twelve and Thirteen personnel often.  Bunch formations, and Jet Motions. Screens (there were two of them on this drive). 

Proper checkdown routes and scripted “Mesh, Smash and Smesh route combos that are more constraint type plays that look like the traditional routes Coordinators run using those concepts (I will introduce these concepts to you over the season). 

Stein ran plays under center, with a regular run and play action/boot looks. 

Stein ran exactly one play that resembled Oregon’s typical tendencies on that Series.  It was a TD pass.  It was also the most wide-open route in Eugene-against the Hoosiers-four different times.  QB Moore didn’t throw that pass once in that game.  He nailed it on a 3^rd down with 12 to go just outside the Red Zone.

Everything Oregon usually runs must be buried in sets of plays as demonstrated in this series. Lanning has decided to exploit Dante Moore’s natural ability to stun everyone with his downfield throwing capabilities.  It has been all or nothing.  I don’t expect that to continue.

 

Now I don’t expect to see much variation from Lanning’s current strategy this weekend. And frankly, if the Offensive Line can block, they won’t need to.  IF…  And that is what it boils down to in Los Angeles this weekend: Will the lineman on both sides of the ball bring an excellent performance to the table? 

 

So Again I ask the question: who are the Oregon Ducks?  If Dan Lanning has learned anything, it must be that business as usual is done.  What we see in Los Angeles this weekend is nothing compared to what will happen if Our Beloved Ducks face the elite group of teams-the Contenders.  Lanning and his staff have all season to pretty much dial up a playbook specifically for that group.  To be unveiled slowly but surely.

That is what I hope Lanning will be spending sleepless hours the next 16 weeks developing.  Then maybe we will see the Real Oregon Ducks-the ones we expected the past 3 seasons.

 

So enjoy the videos, and even if you are not religious-pray.  That the set of plays an Offense above become a staple of plays unleashed when teams are expecting business as usual. 

Unfortunately, the Defense will take longer to develop. Nonetheless, that is what I hope Our Ducks will become.  The explosive Offense Lanning wanted so, his Bend but Don’t Break Defense could maintain a winning edge.

I really wish people would stop talking about the mythical Natty. Everyone talking about it all summer, we all knew it was going to jinx it. I don't know how many times I cringed. It should've been treated like the old days when we didn't speak of the Rose Bowl, for fear of jinxing ever getting back there.

What team besides Ohio State could live up to all that hype?

Thank you, Mike for taking the time to find the video sequences that support your point of view. Well done!

I look forward to the comments from the Forum members, especially about the defense.

I have mentioned in previous posts that I have lost my faith in the Duck D. Not in the players but in the sets, schemes and overall philosphy.

It used to be that it took the great teams to beat the ducks. The "Contenders", the teams with great offensive players, great coaching, with great sets and play calling that kept the Duck D off balance. As you mentioned in your breakdown, they exploited the Ducks weaknesses.

It did not bother me because this happened against teams that won the Natty or played in the Natty. You know the cast, tOSU, Indiana and the dreaded fuskies, twice!!!!!

It just wasn't our time. DL would learn from this and make adjustments, changes and big game performances. Sadly, i was wrong!

This Duck fan does not put BSU or OSU in the category of the "Contenders". Do you?

Without defensive changes, it may be a long season for this talented group of players.

On the offensive side 2 things were crystal clear in the video.....

1. The play calling was diverse. It kept IU off balance and on their heels.

2. Look at the strong downfield blocking by the O line.

I hope we see that from the Duck O against the trojans.

This game is the Duck season. Win and the Ducls can keep working toward a CFP invite. Lose, and its off to San Antonio for the Alamo bowl. Yikes.......

Lets just win. Ducks 52-49.

Go Ducks......

I agree that we are playing 2 High Safety (at this point it might as well be a modified prevent defense) so consistently that opposing offensive coordinators probably smile every time we line up like this. I am hoping that the emergence of Nasir Wyatt as a reliable pass rusher will allow our safety's to play a little bit closer (we have the talent in the secondary to play man and we should use it). If we can force the QB into quicker reads it will help tremendously.

Now on the offensive side, I mentioned in a previous post that I have yet to see the kind of consistent constraint plays that draws an opposing secondary in closer or catches them off guard. Kenny Dillingham was great at this. He would give the same looks play after play in a certain series (RB lined up to take a hand off, tight ends playing close to the line as a blocker, etc...) and then move into play action or a straight-up designed passes.

It would almost always give our receivers an extra step on the secondary. I know this knowledge was passed down to Will Stein and Drew Mehringer; who has been on the staff throughout both OC tenures. I am curious if there is a learning curve for him trusting his gut on calling these; or if is he waiting for more consistent run blocking by the new offensive line before he is willing to unlock this. Either way, these are the kinds of plays that result in chunk yardage and we just haven't seen it yet.

I am going to be optimistic and say he is waiting for the O-Line to gain experience and they have, in fact, been practicing this all along. Saturday will be the benchmark on this for sure.

OUTSTANDING! Thank you, Mr. West.

I recall that after watching the 2nd possession drive against Indiana in the Peach Bowl, thinking Oregon was in business. (I continue to be baffled by Stein's opening play call, especially after watching Kentucky smash-mouth A&M in College Station.)

After the drive to tie the game, nothing was Peachy.

I don't get it. Oregon looked lost in the Rose Bowl and, after briefly battling back, in the Peach Bowl and also in Stillwater, Oklahoma. In all three games, a Blue Chip Roster turned into a Blow Lunch roster.

The schemes may be suspect and easily decoded, but where is the on-field leadership? The will to punch back after being punched in the mouth.

Coming into 2026, perhaps we should have recalled that the four DL NFL prospects who were going to lead the way this season as an inexperienced OL found their footing, disappeared in the Peach Bowl with a whimper. This, after shutting out the best O in the B12 in the Orange Bowl.

These big-game no-shows would try the patience of Job. Yet, when things are going well, we are told this is a player-led team.

In 2025, we saw a guts-ball performance from the D in a rainstorm in Iowa City. We saw a QB lead a refuse-to-lose 4th-quarter drive for the win. Where were these guys in Atlanta?

In 2026, against two viable opponents, we have seen a team favored by a collective 40-plus points struggle against a G6 opponent and melt down in Stillwater. In these two games, the DL was impotent and gashed.

The Boise State and Oklahoma coaching staffs figured out the schemes. This does not justify top players being pushed around by 2* and 3* players.

There's a lot of Sound in 2026; where is the Fury? If the Broncos and Cowboys DCs knew what was coming, Trojans DC Gary Patterson knows what is coming.

Jamari Johnson is listed as Probable for Saturday's game. With McClellan out, Dante better have one security blanket receiver on the field. Dante is not going to morph into Trinidad Chambliss.

Riley's USC teams are difficult to defeat in the Coliseum. At home, Troy is on a 12-game win streak, including going 4-0 last season against the Big Ten. The SC team that was fortunate to win in New Jersey will not be the team that shows up on Saturday.

Thanks again, Mike.

May the Force be With You and With OBD!

Thank you Mike,

I think in large part it comes down to the Lanning bubble. Lanning has become comfortable with his coaches and what he wants. He promotes GAs from within instead of doing sweeping coaching hires. He promoted his two coordinators instead of doing a national search. He knows what he wants and isn't looking for new ideas.

They play to their tendencies because that is what they can do and there aren't enough new ideas or experience in the room to do otherwise.

I feel Lanning will be confronted with the need to make changes at the end of the season. I don't see how the Ducks this year can make it to the National Championship game if they stay the course. Now that's not to say the Ducks can't make the playoff, they have a ton of talent and that talent is why the Ducks were IN the game in the fourth quarter against Oklahoma State. If not for that talent it would have been a blow out because they got downright out-coached.

It will be perhaps the hardest lesson Lanning will have to learn but if he can figure it out quickly it will be better for all of us.

Koi, where are you? Many quality OL players and B1G players are on this list of the 25 most impactful transfers to date. But no Ducks.

SI

Ranking the 25 Most Impactful Transfer Portal Players in...

These 25 players have made big impressions in their new homes through the first few weeks of the season.

7 hours ago, Babyjesus615 said:

I agree that we are playing 2 High Safety (at this point it might as well be a modified prevent defense) so consistently that opposing offensive coordinators probably smile every time we line up like this. I am hoping that the emergence of Nasir Wyatt as a reliable pass rusher will allow our safety's to play a little bit closer (we have the talent in the secondary to play man and we should use it). If we can force the QB into quicker reads it will help tremendously.

That makes sense to me. If the edges can create more pressure with the occasional linebacker through the middle, it should force quicker reads allowing the safeties to adjust close and run a cover 4.

Great post Mike. Here are my questions.

What is the real Oregon? Is the D line doing what they are being asked to do? If their main priority is to simply contain the play between the tackles and avoid the risk of extra pressure, then they would be doing what they've been asked to do and then what could actually change? If the strategy has been to apply pressure but they simply have failed to do so regularly, then this is an epic let down by a supposed NFL front line. If it's not one or they other, then what the heck is going on?

What is the Real Donte Moore? The ending of both Penn St and Iowa were spectacular and show what the ceiling can be. More often than not, the game seems to ebb and flow on the play of the other players. With QB's like Bo, Marcus, Dennis and Akili, it always felt like the fate of the team was in the QB's hands and that's just how you wanted it. It's time for Moore to take over a game that matters. Roll out and extend a play instead of taking a sack. Go deep to that third option when it's there instead of simply dumping off to a running back and hoping for the best. Lead a team to victory. He's done it before.

What's the real Lanning? Going for it on 4th and whatever whenever, has worn away the new coach smell. I still love Lanning and think he's still a couple steps ahead of the pack but I wonder if that has blurred into a sense of a can't do wrong attitude. Clearly the D line plan is not working. Does he have a plan B? How can the offensive line be so shaky in year five? Does he adjust personnel to match the scheme? Does he adjust the scheme to match the personnel? He should have this solved week four.

I think this weekend we get to see who the real Oregon, Moore and Lanning are.

Mike, on the same day you posted this terrific take, The Athletic's ($ Wall) Chris Vannini asked: What's Wrong with the Ducks?

Vannini notes five problems. All of the problems have been raised by Forum Friends, but Vannini provides stats to confirm his points.

1. Too many penalties.

10 vs. Boise and 7 in the games vs. OK State and Portland State. This averages out to three more per game than in 2025.

15 of the 24 penalties have been called on the defense. Two penalties on 4th downs vs. OK State led to Cowboys scores.

2. Too many 3rd-and-long -

The Oregon offense has not been on schedule. 9 out of 26 3rd downs converted against Boise State and OK State; 34%. 2025 conversion rate was 47%.

Oregon is 0-for-5 on 4th down attempts. 4th down failures in the first two games resulted in 16 points scored against.

3. O-Line Struggles -

The Oregon offense is averaging 3.8 yards per rush, No. 78 in the nation. Only one running play has gone for more than 30 yards.

The OL surrendered 4 sacks to OK State; 3 came against a 3-man rush, and 3 sacks to Boise State.

Both Addison's and Crader's Pro Football Focus Pass-Blocking Grades are below 30%.

4. Dante Moore struggles when defenses change post-snap.

Dante continues to have problems reading the field when defenses make post-snap adjustments. There has been no improvement since 2025, and a modest regression.

USC DC Gary Patterson will mix it up post-snap. Does the SC D have the chops to take advantage?

5. The Defense Has Been Busted.

7 plays of 30 or more yards allowed to date. In 15 games in 2025, the defense allowed 18 impact plays. But 6 of the 7 breakdowns occurred in the Stillwater meltdown.

Can these problems be avoided or overcome against USC? Perhaps, and it helps that USC's outstanding freshman WR Trent Mosely will not be able to play.

SC should have lost at Rutgers, and previously, under Riley, SC would have lost. But there are better players on the field, including on a defense that scored two TDs, and in 2026 SC has run the ball much better than Oregon.

Which D shows up on Saturday? The SC D that shut out Fresno State or the Swiss cheese D that played against Rutgers?

Which O shows up for Oregon? If it's the O that no-showed in the first two weeks, USC wins.

Before knowing whether Jeremiah Johnson can play, I'm keeping my prediction powder dry.