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From Ohio Duck

No. 16

6 hours ago, Steven A said:

Ok, here is how to root this weekend to improve our chances (Yes, I'm saying "you mean we have a chance")

Nebraska over Illinois since Illinois holds the tie breaker over us.

UCLA over Minnesota, we need UCLA to win out.

Rutgers over Wisconsin, as long as Wisky only has two losses we need them to have a third.

NW (we have the tie breaker) over Iowa (another two loss team)

Bonus . . . Indiana to lose two in a row . . . the bye week and then SC.

Oregon football: Four games that could impact Ducks' CFP chances

This would allow the Ducks to make the B1G championship game which and a win would be the sure way to make the playoffs.

My biggest rooting this week is for the Ducks to beat Ohio State in Columbus. That is the biggest game of all the college games left to play this year for the Duck's chances.

I'm not convinced OBD are out of the playoff picture without a B1G championship game win. Here's why.

If the team that played the final 21/2 quarters vs Northwestern is the the Ducks team going forward there is a chance of winning out.

Beat Ohio St. in Columbus (certainly a big challenge but doable, I think our back up QB is better than theirs)

Beat Michigan at home (not as big a challenge, but take nothing for granted at this point but doable)

Beat Michigan St. on the road - definitely doable

Beat Washington at home - again definitely doable

That's 9-3 with wins over Boise, USC, Nebraska, Northwestern and Ohio St. All in contention for a playoff birth though certainly not sure things.

Losses to:

Oklahoma St. who has a chance to win out themselves and be 9-3, Texas Tech will be tough, but its a home game and they have not lost at home this season (39 vs OBD is the least they have scored at home).

UCLA still undefeated at this time by 2.

and Illinois which could be the only really bad loss (looking at their remaining schedule they could end up 5-7, if they manage to go 2-2 the rest of the way they are a respectable 7-5)

Given that our worst games were following an injury to our starting QB and it took time to adjust, that we made a needed adjustment in the coaching staff (jury's still out but the first game was promising), we will have won 5 straight games...

that 9-3 record vs. one of the tougher schedules in college football and considering the circumstances, presents a good case for the Ducks to be in. I think if we win out and look pretty good doing it, we are in.

What will also be interesting is IF we win, is that we should jump Ohio St.

Both three loss teams and a recent head-to-head win. They lost to a SC team that we beat.

But would the committee? We already have 'Bama 8 spots above a Tennessee team that pretty much crushed them.

An Indiana team that lost to Ohio St. 8 spots above them.

I think the explanation was that they placed teams in pods, then compared the teams within the pod and for some reason Ohio St. was not in the same pod as Indiana and Tennessee was not in 'Bama's pod.

I've decided to listen to my 3-month-old grandchild for the explanation since his gibberish equals the committee's.

I'm happy to post this here instead of in other posts on the same topic.

Please move my last two posts from 'CFB Initial Rankings - My Thougths - Yours?' to this post. Thank you.

On3

Key takeaways from the first 2026 College Football Playof...

Only three FBS teams remain unbeaten as we head to November, and two of the three — No. 1 Miami and No. 3 Utah — were rewarded by the selection committee

No question a 9-3 Duck team would be worthy to make the CFP.

The resume would be strong.....

Question is, can they overcome the committee SEC Bias? And in the process climb over enough 9-3 SEC teams?

The deck may be stacked against any team that does not win their conference title.

Nothing matters unless OBD's handles tOSU this Saturday....

Go Ducks......

Obviously it would require winning the Big Ten title game.

If you like to play around with W-L scenarios in the B1G, you can go here and do your own prognostications and calculations.

https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=fb

We have a chance, but it's a lot to hope for at this stage. I would be happy at 8-4.

1 hour ago, Jon Joseph said:

I'm happy to post this here instead of in other posts on the same topic.

Please move my last two posts from 'CFB Initial Rankings - My Thougths - Yours?' to this post. Thank you.

On3

Key takeaways from the first 2026 College Football Playof...

Only three FBS teams remain unbeaten as we head to November, and two of the three — No. 1 Miami and No. 3 Utah — were rewarded by the selection committee

Malachi Toney is having surgery, so Notre Dame’s chances to beat Miami this weekend just got better.

37 minutes ago, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

Malachi Toney is having surgery, so Notre Dame’s chances to beat Miami this weekend just got better.

Luck of the Irish. 🤬

A Committee of Juan. 😁

The following ranking is as objective as it gets. But you have to use rankings from some source. This ranking uses ESPN's Strength of Record (SOR) and Strength of Schedule (SOS) Rankings through Week 9.

I added a team's SOR and SOS rankings and ranked the top-12 teams by the result. The lower the total, the better the ranking.

FYI, Oregon's SOR is 28 + 21 SOS = 49. Not in the top-12, but not far off.

1. Kentucky - SOR 2 + SOS 8 = 10

2. Ole Miss - SOR 7 + SOS 4 = 11

3. Alabama - 8 +7 = 15

4. Florida - 15 + 3 = 18

Tied 5 - Ohio State 9 + 10 and Texas 10 + 9 =19

7. Indiana 4 + 31 = 35

No. 8 LSU - 16 + 23 = 39

Tied 9 - Georgia, Miami, USC - 41

No. 12 - Tennessee - 18 + 25 = 43

GIGO? Perhaps. But the above rankings are based on statistics, not whimsy that has Ohio State ranked 8 places below a team it defeated and ranked 5 places above a team it lost to, a USC team that's 7-2 compared to Ohio State's 6-2.

At least one thing that is crystal clear from the committee's 1st ranking: Ohio State should have played a G6 team at home instead of playing at Texas. Yet I'm certain that every committee member in the room wants to see better out-of-conference games.

1 hour ago, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

Malachi Toney is having surgery, so Notre Dame’s chances to beat Miami this weekend just got better.

Without Toney the next 3 games look a lot tougher. @ND v.Duke v.VT.

Is it to much to ask for a 3 loss Miami?

3 minutes ago, Log Haulin said:

Without Toney the next 3 games look a lot tougher. @ND v.Duke v.VT.

Is it to much to ask for a 3 loss Miami?

If Miami goes MIA in the final two games, fine.

But without one of the best players in CFB, I want Miami to win and tag the Domers with a second loss to go 0-2 vs. the Top-25, and hopefully out of the committee's top-12 from Week 11 through December 6th.

Week 10 T-25 vs. T-25 showdowns -

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/page/gamedaykickoff110526/week-10-top-games-upsets-preview

I think Boise State can stop worrying about UTSA taking the G6 spot.

In tonight's Alphabet Soup Bowl: FAU 60 - UTSA 29 (Utterly Trashed and Simply Awful😁 ).

2007 Re-Ducks, er, Redux?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/50380000/2007-chaos-2026-season

Who is assuming UCLA wins out? They could lose their next four. Oregon should have tied them w/ Mehringer at OC.

Min, Ill, Mi, USC

Indy could lose two. USC, WA

OSU after Or, has NW, Neb, Michigan. They won't lose 4, but could lose to any of those 4. They might not win all four.

These games all have to be played. I think the Big 10 is going to be knocking each other off to the end.

Could Oregon make it to the conf championship game with 3 conf losses?

That is too much math for me to handle right now, but it might be possible.

I am going to take a wild guess at the top half of the big 10 final records w/out checking my work: (just conf records)

USC 7-2

Oregon 6-3

OSU 6-3

Indy 6-3

NW 5-4

UCLA 5-4

Min 5-4

Ill 5-4

I'm sure it won't be exactly this, but it could be this chaotic.

Winning out at 9-3 most likely gets us a 10 or 11 seed. I predict at least two 9-3 teams make the field this year. I’d actually rather not make the B1G championship game and take our chances with 9-3.

Simplify…just win 😆

Edited 2 hours ago2 hr by JabbaNoBargain

First and foremost, we need to not only win out but to blow out. Especially if we don't make the conference championship game.

I think we make the playoffs if and only if we blow everybody out, including in the conference championship game.

We have a lot of eye tests to overcome. The best eye test is to kick everybody's butt moving forward.

We have to rely on teams and that is the biggest problem. We are out of control of the results that we need in order to reach the playoffs.

Not trying to be a downer, just trying to be realistic. Fingers crossed.

Edited 1 hour ago1 hr by Mike West

Not a downer, just sounds like you’re looking for sure things… look at where the SEC is at and what they have left to go with their 9 game conference schedule. Very good chance their 3rd place team will have 3 losses overall.

People are very familiar with our story and program. Us winning out with a backup QB would be an incredible ending. 9-3 Oregon would almost certainly get in imo.

10 minutes ago, Mike West said:

First and foremost, we need to not only win out but to blow out. Especially if we don't make the conference championship game.

I think we make the playoffs if and only if we blow everybody out, including in the conference championship game.

We have a lot of eye tests to overcome. The best eye test is to kick everybody's butt moving forward.

We have to rely on teams and that is the biggest problem. We are out of control of the results that we need in order to reach the playoffs.

Not trying to be a downer, just trying to be realistic. Fingers crossed.

Mike, thank you for the enthusiasm! Why not us?

Another way to make the field. Finish 7-2 in conference play, with the tie-breaker against 7-2 Ohio State. Oregon already has the tie-breaker against a two-loss USC.

Defeat Ohio State, and Indiana and UCLA are Oregon's championship game rubs.

UCLA is at Minnesota Saturday. Minnesota is 4-1 at home. The loss was to a healthy Mississippi State team.

The Bruins return to LA to play Illinois in Week 11. In Week 12, when Oregon plays at Michigan State on a Friday night, UCLA is also in Michigan, playing in Ann Arbor on Saturday against a solid defense in what is likely to be cold weather. UCLA's passing game stats are putrid.

If OBD defeats Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State, and UCLA loses two of its next three games, prepare yourself to root for the Trojans in the Week 13 matchup against UCLA in Pasadena. And take care of business against UW.

The reward? A championship game matchup against Indiana in Indianapolis. Win, and it's on to the playoffs, perhaps with a 7th or 8th seed and a 1st-round home game? Lose? Does the B1G champ game loser get the committee's Alabama mulligan? Hmmmmm.

OK, I like your idea better. The B1Ggest hurdle, besides a PO committee that isn't enamored with the Big Ten, would be blowing out a Michigan team that is 3rd in the nation in total defense and should be traveling to Autzen with a win over Michigan State and a 6-3 record.

Your plan also requires the fine young cannibals to keep chomping in the SEC. Fine with me 😍.

Miami without Toney winning in South Bend on Saturday would help the cause. Wake Forest losing two more games would also help. I think the B12 has SOS issues and will beat itself up. I hope.

I see the G6 representative being the PO 12th seed. If Oregon finishes ranked 11th or higher by the PO committee after starting 23rd, it would be a historic accomplishment. Why not us?

At least through part of Saturday afternoon on the Right Coast (the wrong coast for sports viewing), I'm keeping the playoffs faith.

Thanks again for the encouragement. It's CFB in November; you never know.

Blast Brutus!

31 teams still in the PO mix include OBD stayin' PO alive!

On3

College Football Playoff: The 31 teams that still have a...

We just received the first set of rankings from the College Football Playoff Committee. You know what that means: CFP debating time. With the CFP