The Kamikaze Kid

It's bye weekend and without an actual game to ponder, I've been thinking about how good the Ducks actually are. Statistically, the Oregon D is very good but lurking just below the stats is some info that may make them elite. In the category of points allowed per game in the BIG, OBD find themselves in fourth place behind tOSU, Indy and Iowa. Oregon has given up 85 points in the BIG and 108 over all. If you brake that down between qtrs 1-3 and the 4th separately, some interesting info emerges. Below, I've done just that. Team Qtrs 1-3 4 Total Mon St 6 7 13 Ok St 0 3 3 NW 0 14 14 OSU 7 0 7 PSU 3 14 17 excludes OT points IU 20 10 30 Rut 3 7 10 Wis 0 7 7 Total 39 62 101 BIG Totals 26 52 78 Some conclusions. OBD have given up only 26 points in 15 quarters (5 games quarters 1-3) against BIG competition. That's less than 2 points per quarter. Two thirds of the total points given up against the BIG have been in the 4th quarter. Of the 52 fourth quarter points given up, only 24 were with the game still in doubt (Indy and PSU). I've never seen defensive numbers like these for the Ducks. If the offense can find more consistency and the D holds steady, this may be a championship caliber team.

This should be a T shirt.

Looked on ESPN scoreboard about an hour ago and saw that Miami had over 90% chance of winning. Should have phoned in a sure money bet!

OBD is in third place in our conference and realistically somewhat of a long shot to win it all this year and we all still love it! Just competing at the highest level year after year is all we can really ask. If we actually make the championship game or to even win it would be historic events. At LSU not being in the championship after a few years would have the hot seat heating up. Who needs that. He’s got top level resources, compensation and a rabid and appreciative fan base in a very chill environment for family life. Sounds like a great deal to me.

Indiana is a great team with a great coach and I believe they could beat anybody on any given day. I also think that beaten the best teams in the country week after week would expose depth issues that would be too difficult to over come. If they do manage to make the championship game, then Lanning's streak of only losing to championship game participants since his first year would continue.

Yes Charles it is quite a confusing and contradictory year. They can absolutely get it done until they can’t. They either put up video game numbers or get stopped in their tracks. On Saturday when the weather was the best, they played their worst. As the weather got worse, they played their best. I thought the Stanford esque game I’d like to see them start with kind of got forced on them when the storm took the cutesy options away.

My list was purely based on standings. Top six: 0-1 loss, Mid Six: 2-3 losses, Bottom six: 0-1 wins.

I think the Coach Lannings and Cigs of the world are far better off at their new blood schools than jumping to blue blood schools. If neither never win a championship, just being in the hunt most years will be good enough for their fan bases. Can you imagine several years in a row like OBD had last year and complaining that your coach just can't get it done? I think we're just beginning to see the problems of the super conference concept. With ever expanding conference sizes, some teams will just be stuck at mid upper tier just do to basic math. UGA, Bama, Texas, OU and LSU can't all win the conference every year. Throw in upstarts like Ole Miss Vandy and a reborn Florida and someone on this list will have to be 4-4 or worse. That's just math doing what math does. OBD went out brought in an up and coming D coordinator, Indiana brought in an old coach that you had to google to find out about. The blue bloods don't want to take that route. That keeps them stuck on a flavor of the month merry go round. In the end I see most of these fired coaches just swapping schools because they will be the biggest names available. Rinse and repeat.

Not only do I agree with your running back rotation and analysis, I think Davison's running style (up the middle) plays to the Ducks O line strength. The offense really seems to bog down when they start off by trying to win the battle of the edges then lose them against a good defense. This just seems to set up the third and longs that fail with bubble screens and short passes. Davison gives OBD that Stanford smash moth attack that I think would be a great way to start a game with. A long bruising drive to start the game could soften up the D making them more vulnerable to explosion plays off the edge later. OBD have the personnel to do it but for some reason haven't chosen to start off a game that way yet. Seems like Iowa would be a great [;ace to start.

Well articulated post Mike. A quick synopsis of my original take would be that OBD seems to be scheming as a cautious underdog not as a talented favorite.

Generous but I’ll take it.

Great breakdown. I just checked the BIG standings and it is spilt evenly between 3 distinct brackets. Top Six: tOSU, Indy, OBD, Iowa, UM, USC Mid Six:: Min, Neb, NW, UW, UCLA, Ill Bottom Six: Mary, Rut, PSU, MSU, Pur, Wisky OBD's results Top Six: 0-1 Mid Six: 1-0 Bottom Six: 3-0 Remaining Games Top Six: 2 Iowa, USC Mid Six: 2 Min, UW Bottom Six: None Of OBD's four wins, three are against the bottom six. The schedule really ramps up for the final four games.

I don't want this post to come off as to whiney but I'm just concerned that OBD are making things too hard on themselves by trying to play it safe,

As OBD head into the final third of the season, some patterns have emerged in the team that become concerns to me that if not addressed create a dangerously low ceiling for an offense with much more potential. It should also be mentioned that against inferior competition, these concerns get hidden as the team simply overwhelms the defense on pure talent alone. Out of eight games played, the Ducks have shown major offensive struggles in three (Penn St, Indiana, Wisky). These are the three I'm most focused on and am talking about. Here are my main concerns. Offensive game plan: It feels against tougher competition, the plan gets way too conservative which creates predictability that tougher defenses exploit. Way to often, the Ducks seem to find themselves behind schedule then face third and long with inadequate plays designed to get the yardage needed. A three game sample size shows this to be a trend not just a one off. Conservative passing plays: Kind of part two from the first critique, there seems to be way to much passing behind the line of scrimmage and passing short on third down. A timid passing attack just allows the defense to jam the box with too many defenders that also helps to stifle the running game. All in all I think this conservative approach negates the talent advantage that seems designed to spread out a defense and get playmakers in space. AWOL playmakers: Time and time again in these tough battles, you see Sadiq with one or two receptions and Moore with two or three and Hill with a couple carries. What? All three of these guys have the potential to be national leaders at their positions but nearly disappear on their own stat sheets. Designing the offense to get these guys the ball should always be the priority. Bonus gripe: Davison should be starting and getting ten plus carries a game. Where's Moga? Before the season started, I was sure that the offense would feature some Luke Moga trickeration from time to time. All three games mentioned above needed some sort of spark to get the defense out of it's comfort zone. I thought that was why Moga was on the team. By halftime of the three games mentioned the Ducks had 3 (PSU), 10 (Indy) and 7 (Wisky). Seems like shaking things up was in order in all three to me. Putting it all together, I think OBD makes themselves way to easy to game plan against when they have the talent to be a nightmare. It feels like the ceiling for the offense has been set artificially low. Against lower level teams the talent mismatch gashes the defense and puts up video game numbers but against solid teams it's a perfect serving of sugar free vanilla pudding. I really hope something changes because this could still be a special season with special results.

OBD 38-10 3TOs 3 sacks 180 passing yrds

Loving the quality over quantity approach. USC 34 commits? Sheesh.

If OBD sends another OC off to be a head coach of a major program, they will once again bring in whoever they want.

I remember being at an Utah game awhile back and the Ducks had a comfortable but not dominant lead. An injured Bo had to come out for a play and in comes TT. In his only play of the game he bungles a hand off that turns into a scoop and score and all of a sudden OBD are in a dogfight. No matter who ends up being QB2 or whoever enters the portal, I'm just glad those days are long behind us. I have confidence that QB2-4 would be capable of coming in and at least looking like they belong on the field.

Penn St lost a tough game at home to a top ten team and never recovered. OBD does the same thing and Lanning shows the team film of recovering after being mauled by a bear! Aside from giving up bookend turnovers that lead to giving up ten points, the Ducks played about as flawless a game as I have seen. Rutgers is not that good but they also aren't that bad. Before their 46 point blowout to the Ducks they had lost to Iowa by 10, Minnesota by 3, and Washington by 19. Hardly the doormat that OBD made them look like on Saturday. In those loses their offense had scored 28, 28 and 19. This blowout was more about the Ducks digging down deep to find a better team than they were before. I think we may have just seen a young but dangerous team mature into a dangerous team. A+ coaching this week was nicely revealed in this week's episode.

What an awesome football weekend. Ducks bust out the steam roller and the trifecta of gleeful misery as SUC fuskies and the fighting Mario’s all go down!

As the third quarter beatdown progressed, I was eagerly anticipating an answer to this confusing question but nope. I can accept the Novo talk of caution due to injury but that does not explain the Moga disappearance. Against Indiana when the offense was clearly figured out and was completely shutdown, I was expecting to see some sort of Moga trickery to show up to throw the Indy D off and maybe find some momentum but nope. Something seems to be going on behind the scenes that we may not find out until after the season. Enquiring minds want to know!

Some choice quotes from Beavis believers themselves. That’s like taking back your ex after they cheated on you, moved in with the person they were cheating on you with then you taking them back after things didn’t work out with the other one. My Beaver gear would be at goodwill. “Id rather wake up With my head sewn to the carpet…..”

Tough luck Mario. Better luck next time against (checks notes) um... Stanford.

OBD 31-23 2 ints 3 sacks 285 passing yards

Great topic and article. I also wonder why they would drift away from both Davidson and the power run game. Coming into this game, it felt like Indy was playing the role of the Kelly era Ducks (quick and scrappy) and the Ducks had become more like the Stanford and tOSU teams that could beat them (physical run games with top end QB and receivers). Indy then preceded to play to their strength but OBD did not. Instead, we seemed obsessed with bubble screens and running outside where Indy's quickness was having success. The power game seemed to be effective most of the game but was never relied on the way Furd or the Buckeyes would have. I think long plodding drives would have demoralized them and worn them down like the Ducks back in the day. Second and six, third and two, first down, rinse and repeat all the way down the field for seven minutes would have worn them down and made them more vulnerable to some explosion plays. Davidson should have had twenty carries in this game not just eight. The quick three and outs and interceptions kept the D out there way to long and wore us down instead. I hope the coaching staff learns a lot from this one because I feel the bulk of the responsibility for this loss is on them.