Nevada Dawg

For me, it would depend on who they are playing. Plus Urban has proven to be a mediocre prognosticator in big games, barely better than Corso. That being said, if my Athens Dawgs don't win the title again, Ducks, keep me engaged and bring home that trophy!

Today I watched Greg McElroy's "Always College Football" podcast on playoff selections, and Greg managed to outdo Jon Joseph, listing the scenarios that would present a path for inclusion for each of the top eight teams in the CFP rankings. My head hurt unwrapping all this, but he did have a point, or should I say rationale, for each of the team's inclusion. Of course several teams would need an improbable sequence of outcomes, but each scenario could conceivably happen. I've just decided to sit back on Friday night and Saturday afternoon and watch how things unfold with a trusty bottle of bourbon at my side. I hope that I am not an alcoholic by Saturday at about 4:30. So Charles, I understand the queasiness and feel it myself. And I'm betting that you'd agree with me that this would have been a great year to kick off the expanded playoffs to get them off to a rousing start.

Kind of sad to me that college football is becoming the sub-NFL farm leagues where everyone is a free agent and no one enforces rules against tampering. The traditions of the game are fading fast and I can see why many are beginning to throw up their hands and walking away from college fandom (I personally know three of these guys). I wonder how long it will be before many of have-nots in Division 1 decide that they can no longer compete, financially or any other way, for talent and drop their football programs. I could hardly blame them I mean 10 offers of 1-Million plus for QB who has won nothing makes me sick, ,even though I have admired the way Ward has handled himself between the lines. Sorry to rant but this is how I feel about the way the game is devolving.

And now I'm feeling more respect for Charles' fear that somehow the PAC-12 and specifically the Ducks could get left out of the playoffs. The Fuskies are now in the top 4 and , should they win on Friday, are in. I personally believe that the Ducks are in with a win as well but it is humans who make these decisions which, sometimes don't leave us with the best four teams. Sunday morning I watched the College Football Final. wrap-up on ESPN and two of the three commentators had Oregon among their first two out of the playoffs. These guys also saw a path to the dance for Ohio State. And unbelievably, according to the ESPN computer, the Bucks remained above Michigan on their little power index. wth! Oregon has received enough Buzz during the latter part of the season that many people other than Duck partisans expect the Ducks to be selected should they win on Friday. That makes me feel better but, remember, it is humans who make these selections and do what they do for any number of reasons. I see the SEC Championship game as a play-in to the playoffs, and I bet that Kirby is sending those vibes to his team. This is the way it should be, particularly in a year where there are more than four deserving teams meriting consideration. But I have read three headlines over the past two days, probably written as clickbait, implying that what we think we know about selections may become chaotic should Alabama win the game against Georgia on Saturday. Again, these headlines may all be clickbait, but as an Oregon fan, I'd suggest that we all become Dawg fans for a day on Saturday (no problem for me) so the above doesn't unfold.

Yeah, I don't know what it is about this Georgia team which has fallen behind in the first quarter of almost all Power-5 opponents this year. I don't even sweat that any more unless they fall two scores down, and when they do, they seem to come back all the harder. Still it is not a good look and could well get them in trouble at this time of the year.

Disagree on the national perception. I do believe that Oregon shot themselves in the foot at several junctures in Seattle, but most non-Duck fans are not that attuned to the inner workings of that game and would not come away with the impression that Oregon beat itself. Sorry, but I've had the occasion to talk with several friends from back East who watched that game, and they have asked me if Oregon could beat a team that beat them earlier. No sense among these fans, who know the game of football, that Oregon beat themselves. And there is too much of an obsession on rankings and stats on this board in my opinion. I've often heard it said by people wiser than me that stats are for losers, and I concur in the sense that relying on them to feel better after a loss is meaningless. Like it or not, what matters most is what happens between the lines. And as I alluded to above, I think the Ducks of December are better than they were earlier in Seattle, will not repeat the mistakes made on that fateful day, and will come away with a solid victory in Vegas.

I like the part about the Ducks, as PAC-12 champs getting the nod over 1-loss OSU which will have played one less game than the others in the playoff picture. I quibble with the argument that the whole nation saw how we outplayed UW in a losing cause. You ask most people who are not PAC-12 fans, they probably think that UW won that game because they had the better team on that night. I personally believe that the Fuskies have regressed noticeably since that fateful day in Seattle, whereas the Ducks have gotten better. I expect that to be readily apparent Friday next. Go Ducks!!

As it should be. Ducks need to beat an undefeated team of Fuskies in the PAC-12 Championship game.

There are many ways of looking at resumes and one way ie examining the W-L records of a team's opponents. Looking at last week's data for the top 8 in the playoff contenders, the two teams with opponents' best W-L records were Alabama and Georgia. Oregon's opponents were only two games over .500. Oregon wi sti get to the playoffs if they beat the beaves and Seattle Dawgs, but not on the strength of a stellar resume.

My reaction is who the HELL cares what his stats would be for four quarters. Statistics are for losers: The decision to pull Bo was for the good of the team so as to minimize the prospects of an unnecessary injury in a blowout. How would it be if by some freakish happenstance, Bo suffered a knee injury that ended his, and likely Oregon's, season short of the teams goals when Bo didn't need to be in there. Bo strikes me as a competitor, and I'd bet he'd much rather have the opportunity to lift the National Championship Trophy than the Heisman Trophy if he were asked that question.

Last sentence: my reaction is EXACTLY!!

I can relate to those who almost expected prior Duck teams to lose a game they had no business losing. This happened at Georgia for nearly three decades and is the major reason that a coach with a stellar Won-Lost record was replaced in 2016. Three times during that coach's tenure, Georgia lost games that kept them out of the Natty, and these were loses no one saw coming. Kirby Smart was hired to be a different kind of coach, and he has proven to be exactly that. Ducks fans should be "feeling It" because in my assessment (for what it is worth) Lanning is looking to be the same kind of coach.

Maintaining traditional rivalries is always good as far as I am concerned, As for OSU being relegated to a lower existence, Georgia has kept its rivalry with Georgia Tech, and the people speaking badly about stooping to play the lowly Yellow Jackets display the kind of snootiness that makes others dislike USC and its followers here out West. I am starting to get the same kind of vibes from those who want to let the OSU rivalry go. tThis will certainly not make me popular in this forum, but that's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.

I missed much of the game as Georgia was playing Tennessee at the same time. What I did see was impressive however. I questioned, however, why the hell Nix and Irving were still in the game much of the second half., Nobody is paying me 6 million a year for my game day decisions, but I saw no need of exposing Bo Nix to the prospect of a horrifying injury in a game where the Ducks were up by six touchdowns. There is simply too much at stake this season for this in my opinion. If the decision was made to Pad Bo's stats for Heisman candidacy than I'm doubly dubious. Downvote me if you wish (actually I don't think this is possible here), but statistics are for losers, even though they are the metric that many use to grant individual awards. Having said this, i was also dubious of Kirby Smart's decision to leave QB Carson Beck in the game with Tennessee as long as he did---and for the same reason I questioned the Nix decision. Long-range team goals are far more important than individual ones IMHO.

I haven't read all of this thread so SIAP. But...aren't weird things known to come down in Corvallis., I do know about the infamous mud bowl in which the Beaves upset undefeated and #1 USC and O.J. Simpson. I also painfully remember a certain team we all love giving up a big lead in the 4th Quarter to fall there only last year. Could OSU upset the visiting Fuskies on Saturday. Absolutely! Do I expect it to happen? Not likely IMHO.

I was going to reply to the inevitable "panic thread" that emerged to say that Lanning wasn't going anywhere. IMHO it made no sense to uproot his family to go to College Station Texas, one of the armpits of the Lone Star state. I held off because it was late, I didn't want to wade through 80 some posts to ensure that I had anything worth saying...and thankfully Lanning ended the speculation quickly citing some of the very reasons I would have posted for staying in Eugene. I told y'all when he was hired that you would love this guy and I see that I was right.

Duck fans, you have a coach who knows how to build a winning program and this year stands as evidence of that fact. But I caution that Lanning has to continue to recruit like a banshee, and I am confident that he knows that the best route to a sustainable winning program is recruitment primarily at the high school level of those who are "culture fits" for what he is building. He took an inordinately large number this year from the portal to fill holes that weren't adequately addressed in last year's recruiting class. I suspect that number will eventually shrink to a select few to fill critical holes. Worrying about next year, my biggest concern is addressing the QB issue. Anyone who believes (and I hope this isn't throwing shade Charles) that one can easily replace a talent like Nix in the portal may be living in a "fool's paradise". Nix was a jewel who fell into Oregon's lap--enjoy the good fortune. My preference has always been to develop QBs from what is in-house, and don't you guys that two 5-stars slated to grace next year's roster.? But even at that, next year's QB play is likely to be a disappointment to many, even if you do take a portal guy. So enjoy the present and look forward to the continued development of the Duck brand over time on the national scene, even though the ascendance will not always be in a straight line upward.

If these guys were the ones setting the betting odds, I could see betting against these lines.

Don't think that the 12-1 PAC-12 champion Ducks get left out, even with having only beaten one team with a winning record to date. Besides, SOS will look much better if they beat USC, OSU, and UW. I doubt that there will be four undefeated teams in the end, so that Oregon should be in unless Texas wins out and ends up with a stronger SOS than the Ducks. Of course, I am assuming that either Georgia or Alabama gets in as SEC champs. Right now, the stars are aligning for the Ducks---provided they can continue to take care of business. fsu is going to lose.

Agree

Good analysis Jon on schedule and the task at hand. Some folks here seem to be getting way out front when job 1 should be concentrating on beating the Trojans and then, whomever is next. A great season can be ruined by a single slip-up! I've seen that happen too often in Athens, even a couple times under Kirby smart.

Expected Oregon to win this game convincingly and they did. Second year coach Mike White had to pretty much replenish his roster this year and the team is young. They are slated to have a great incoming class next year and will give a better account of themselves in the future. I'm actually surprised that White took the Georgia job because the program was a shambles after two bad coaches in a row. He worked miracles getting last year's squad to 16-16.

Big discussion tonight on one of the Dawg forums about the 24 draft regarding whether Bo Nix is a first-rounder. The consensus was not likely, although as a jury member , my own verdict is still up in the air. I think that if the Ducks reach the playoff and Bo has a good game in one such game, he gets a first-round grade. But we shall see what we shall see.

Yeah, ducks are really getting noticed. Another example: On his very popular "Always College Football" podcast, Greg McElroy and his guest Colin Cowherd seemed to agree that the Ducks are one of the top four teams and will beat the Fuskies if such a rematch takes place. Cowherd even said that the Ducks are the only team in the PAC-12 that is built like and looks like an SEC team and would probably beat either Ohio State of Michigan on a neutral field. Not sure I concur with that assessment, but I certainly believe the good guys belong on the same field with them--assuming they keep their eyes on the long prize ahead and keep grinding.

I haven't watched Ty much, but he looked like a deer in the headlights out there last year. However, a Spring and Summer of taking first-team reps in practice may make him look like a completely different player. At Georgia, Carson Beck looked like Ty as the backup QB in early 2020. He quickly lost his backup status to Stetson Bennett who, in turn, became the starter shortly thereafter. My point is that Carson had a paucity of first-team reps that year. When he got more in 22 and during the Spring and Summer of 23, his talent and knowledge of the offense became readily apparent. I won't be surprised if the same doesn't happen for TT next year. In any case, expect a period of adjustment in the offense, and some fits and starts, whomever takes snaps for the Ducks next September. Nix will not be easily replaced I fear.