Hi everyone, with all the transition around FishDuck I have decided to start my own substack called Marsh Duck. Not that crazy original but I think it works.

I am eternally grateful for the opportunity Charles gave me to write on his website and as things are changing I figure I'd try this for the time being as see how it goes and develops.

The first article on my substack came out today and the link is below. It's all free but if you can subscribe that would help get the ball rolling.

https://open.substack.com/pub/marshduck/p/does-dan-lanning-have-a-big-game?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=8foswi

Thanks David!

I don't think Lanning has a big game problem. As you point out, he has won big games. His first "big game loss" came against anOSU, but only after they beat that eventual national champion anOSU in the regular season. THAT was also a big game. After that game, once again, people were saying that Ryan Day still had a big game problem. Soooo, everyone thought that it was a big game.

Lanning is still growing. Hopefully, he will continue to grow throughout his career. Nothing to see here.

Can't wait to see Dan hoist the National trophy. That's just a saying. Of course I can and will wait... because I believe it will happen.

David! Great article, and it does my heart good to see you continue your writing.

Another way to look at it is---Dan Lanning has not lost in four years to a team he should beat who is ranked lower or unranked. Only teams that are GREAT can beat Our Beloved Ducks!

I know someone who does NOT have that track record...

Good stuff. One of those questions that keeps coming up, but I don't know if there is a consensus answer?

What has happened the last two seasons against Ohio State and Indiana in the playoffs? Not losing those games so much, but showing up and getting blasted.

I have been looking at theories (better than rewatching the games) and I haven't found much so I have sort of settled on just simple physical and mental wear (and thus players being more susceptable to being injured or at least banged up). Two possible causes come to mind.

• Long intense practices with regular hitting combined with what often appear to be many full day practice schedules

The 2024 Jabbar Muhammed was quoted (who had been in practice systems at Oklahoma State and Washington before Oregon):

"One thing I wanted to get better at was my physicality and you have no choice but to do that here, so it was a perfect match for me." When further asked about the difference in environments between Oregon and his other stops he said:

"It's way different, you are hitting and rat-a-tat-tatting every single day, so it's much different. It's a tough schedule. It's legit all day. I know you see the Tik-Toks and everything, but our camp is really all day. It's lenient in some other programs, but this one is kinda tough."

Anecdotally many have possibly noticed in series like Under Construction, Ducks versus Them, and Meet the Flock, there does appear to be a lot of time spent in a variety of activities and meetings. That could be in error, but it does match Muhammed's comments.

Compared to maybe Curt Cignetti who has said any practice over 90 minutes is too long and a reported "go home" culture (rather than requiring players to be in the football facility constantly, he prefers short and organized meetings, and when the day's tasks are complete, telling the players and coaches to go home, recover, and recalibrate).

There is a video of a former Cignetti player talking about sometimes 80 minute practices that never exceeded 1:50 and some practices being walk through only. The former Les Miles player interviewing says all their practice were in pads and M/H were always 2 to 2 1/2 hours and U/W were all 3 hours with full contact. There is another Cignetti video with Urban Meyer where he says he has never used more than 13 of his 15 allowed Spring practices and never used all 25 of his allowed Fall practices. He says simply "I'm trying to keep them fresh and healthy."

Chip was also I believe known for preferring short-paced high energy practices, with Oregon being overall relatively healthy from 2009-2012, highlighted by only about a handful of lost starts from the 22 starters all of the 2010 run.

• Air travel

In 2024, when Oregon arrived at the Rose to play tOSU, it had put in 17,250 air miles on the season (with relatively short trips to Oregon State and UCLA).

In 2025, Oregon arrived in Atlanta to meet Indiana with 24,280 air miles.

Oregon's 5 away games in 2026 have 15,560 air miles. With post season travel, it again could be 20,000+.

In 2027, Oregon's 5 B1G games require 13,400 air miles without the now replaced Waco trip. With the trip it would have been 16,700.

In 2024, with tOSU having made the trip out to Eugene, had 7,555 air miles traveled at Rose Bowl kickoff to 17,250 for Oregon. The Eugene trip alone was 55% of their travel total.

In 2025, despite Indiana also coming out to Eugene, it was 11,010 to 24,280. Indiana's trip to Eugene trip plus their Rose Bowl trip to play Alabama was 67% of their total.

Pure fan message board kind of talk, hope the staff is looking at how much time is spent on things and weighing the longer term benefit of dialing it back a bit? Especially when considering being stuck with all the flight miles.

If the season is going to go from August to the middle of January, maybe get them some more rest and kick them out of the facility more at least through October (first 8 games). I don't consider this a DL fault, maybe a still younger coach with a lot of energy, that naturally sees the time available and wants to thrown in anything he thinks will help, when the best help might just be boring old free time and rest.

Again fan perception, in late September Dan had the team with its hair on fire ready to run through a brick wall in State College for Penn State. By January 9 in Atlanta, it really looked different: flat, banged up, and even Dan looked a bit subdued and even tired in his pregame interview.

That and 7,600 air miles flown over like 9-10 days to get to Miami and back and then back down to Atlanta for the Peach Bowl kickoff.

Edited Monday at 09:06 PM2 days by AnotherOD

tOSU and Indiana adjusted game plans for the second meeting, and offered some stuff not on season film. To me, it simply looked like Oregon wasn't expecting the adjustments.

I echo, it's good to have David Marsh and his articles back.

Good comments all and fantastic research by AnotherOD.

In this so-called playoff, which is really a Disney/ESPN Bowl Extravaganza, the format is weighted in favor of teams located in the Southwest and the Southeast.

Two of the host bowls are in the West, the Rose and Fiesta Bowls. The other four bowls are played East of the Rockies in states where the SEC has a team, and also closer to schools in the East and the Midwest.

The distance from Bloomington, Indiana, to Atlanta, Georgia is 514 miles. 2,611 miles from Eugene to Atlanta. How many Oregon fans, especially the students, could afford to travel to Miami, then Atlanta, and then to Miami if the Peach Bowl had been won? With airfares and hotel prices jacked up.

The 2026-27 playoff championship game will be played on January 25, 2027, in Las Vegas. The only time under the 12-team format that the championship game is scheduled to be played in the Pacific time zone. In every other season but 2026-27, five of the seven off-campus games will be played at least two time zones away from Eugene.

Tony Petitti's PO format would provide some relief from travel, with eight home games in each of the first two rounds, and with a shorter bye and a home game for the top eight seeds.

Considering where Oregon is located, the majority of the population living in the Central and Eastern time zones, the Rose Bowl insisting that the game has to be played on New Year's Day, SoFi having two NFL tenants, Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas not being a permanent PO game site, as it should be, OBD, and every other team located in the Pacific and Mountain time zones better be ready to fasten their PO seat belts.

Of course, if the D1 PO were managed by the NCAA like every other CFB PO, only the champ game would be played away from campus.

As to AOD's point on conditioning, keeping the players healthy and rested has worked well for Curt Cignetti, who learned when coaching lower division teams that you could not risk the health of the best players on a talented-limited roster.

2026 is Dan's 5th season. Ryan Day and Kirby Smart won their first titles in their sixth season.

Keep on knocking, and there will be a positive answer.

Thanks David! Your article was spot on.

DL does not have a Big Game Problem. Without DL our Ducks would be in half as many big games.

Now he just needs to win the big games in the playoffs. The big games mid-season, while exciting, do not hold the same importance in the grand scheme of things. He just needs to get his teams to peak in Dec/January and this will never be questioned again.

Lanning and his staff have seemed to struggle when facing the same opponent for a second time, particularly when adjustments and counter-adjustments become a larger part of the game. However, I have faith that they've recognized those shortcomings, learned from their mistakes, and will continue to grow as a coaching staff. The best coaches evolve through experience, and I believe they'll overcome this issue in the near future.