What do we do with Dan Lanning?   Maybe, just maybe we go up to the 30,000 foot level and take another peak at this. I am still stunned and frustrated with this loss, but I forced myself to try and be objective.

I don't recommend that to anyone, it's very challenging when OBD are concerned, but I tried to do it for you so you don't have to.

Before we throw away the guy who has taken Oregon to a 48–8 record over four seasons, maybe we should remember that another coach once had fans questioning whether he was getting enough out of his program.

That coach was a guy by the name of Nick Saban.

Saban's first four seasons at LSU 38-13:

• 2000: 8–4

• 2001: 10–3 — SEC Champion

• 2002: 8–5

• 2003: 13–1 — SEC Champion & National Champion

After that 8–5 season in 2002, there was legitimate frustration around LSU. Expectations had risen. The talent was there. People questioned whether Saban was getting enough out of his players.

Sound familiar? Then came 2003.

Now look at Lanning:

• 2022: 10–3

• 2023: 12–2

• 2024: 13–1 — Big Ten Champion

• 2025: 13–2

48–8 vs 38-13

That's an absurd level of consistency.

And Lanning isn't doing it with mediocre recruiting. Oregon has become a national recruiting powerhouse, consistently bringing in elite talent while also mastering the transfer portal.  Saban's recruiting classes were routinely top 5 or better and he had a slightly worse win/loss ratio, albeit with no transfer portal...because that didn't exist "technically".

So, does Lanning need to win a national championship? YES. At this point, that's the expectation at Oregon

You can't have this type of talent and resources and get beat by Oklahoma State or taken to the wire by Boise State.

But “we haven't won the championship yet” is not the same thing as “Lanning is an underachiever.”

If we're going to judge Lanning, let's judge the entire body of work and not just the frustration of the latest loss.

Because here's the uncomfortable truth:

Nick Saban didn't win his first national championship at LSU until Year 4.

Before that, there were losses. There were questions. There was frustration. There were people wondering whether all that talent was translating into enough wins.

Then everything clicked.

I'm not saying Dan Lanning is Nick Saban.

I'm saying maybe we should be very careful before declaring that a coach who is winning at an extraordinary rate, recruiting at an elite level, and has transformed Oregon into a national contender is somehow failing.

Now comes the hardest part:

FINISHING THE JOB

I believe that is where the majority of frustration comes from.  Being so close.   Supposedly having the pieces to do it.  Bringing back NFL talent that so far hasn't looked it.   

Comparisons are brutal, but warranted.   Will the Ducks win the CFP this year.   Not the way they look now.  But, WHEN they do, we may look back at these conversations very differently and see the growth of not just this program, but of Dan Lanning.

Saban learned to pay recruits under the table. You can't do that now. He knew he couldn't cheat anymore, which is why he left.

Edited Monday at 06:13 PM1 day by Sharpshooter1997

1 hour ago, Ktmguy2018 said:

What do we do with Dan Lanning?   Maybe, just maybe we go up to the 30,000 foot level and take another peak at this. I am still stunned and frustrated with this loss, but I forced myself to try and be objective.

I don't recommend that to anyone, it's very challenging when OBD are concerned, but I tried to do it for you so you don't have to.

Before we throw away the guy who has taken Oregon to a 48–8 record over four seasons, maybe we should remember that another coach once had fans questioning whether he was getting enough out of his program.

That coach was a guy by the name of Nick Saban.

Saban's first four seasons at LSU 38-13:

• 2000: 8–4

• 2001: 10–3 — SEC Champion

• 2002: 8–5

• 2003: 13–1 — SEC Champion & National Champion

After that 8–5 season in 2002, there was legitimate frustration around LSU. Expectations had risen. The talent was there. People questioned whether Saban was getting enough out of his players.

Sound familiar? Then came 2003.

Now look at Lanning:

• 2022: 10–3

• 2023: 12–2

• 2024: 13–1 — Big Ten Champion

• 2025: 13–2

48–8 vs 38-13

That's an absurd level of consistency.

And Lanning isn't doing it with mediocre recruiting. Oregon has become a national recruiting powerhouse, consistently bringing in elite talent while also mastering the transfer portal.  Saban's recruiting classes were routinely top 5 or better and he had a slightly worse win/loss ratio, albeit with no transfer portal...because that didn't exist "technically".

So, does Lanning need to win a national championship? YES. At this point, that's the expectation at Oregon

You can't have this type of talent and resources and get beat by Oklahoma State or taken to the wire by Boise State.

But “we haven't won the championship yet” is not the same thing as “Lanning is an underachiever.”

If we're going to judge Lanning, let's judge the entire body of work and not just the frustration of the latest loss.

Because here's the uncomfortable truth:

Nick Saban didn't win his first national championship at LSU until Year 4.

Before that, there were losses. There were questions. There was frustration. There were people wondering whether all that talent was translating into enough wins.

Then everything clicked.

I'm not saying Dan Lanning is Nick Saban.

I'm saying maybe we should be very careful before declaring that a coach who is winning at an extraordinary rate, recruiting at an elite level, and has transformed Oregon into a national contender is somehow failing.

Now comes the hardest part:

FINISHING THE JOB

I believe that is where the majority of frustration comes from.  Being so close.   Supposedly having the pieces to do it.  Bringing back NFL talent that so far hasn't looked it.   

Comparisons are brutal, but warranted.   Will the Ducks win the CFP this year.   Not the way they look now.  But, WHEN they do, we may look back at these conversations very differently and see the growth of not just this program, but of Dan Lanning.

Lanning has an incredibly golden opportunity to show all of us, and the entire college football nation, what he is made of.

I would not bet against Lanning in the situation.

Edited Monday at 07:05 PM1 day by Desert Duck

7 minutes ago, Desert Duck said:

Lanning has an incredibly golden opportunity to show all of us, and the entire college football nation, what he is made of.

I would not bet against Lanning in the situation.

I certainly wouldn't bet for him either.

Without making any sort of a statement.

Teams with outstanding talent will beat the majority of their opponents with average coaching.

Playing the elites is when the talent needs an extra boost.

15 minutes ago, fred flintstone said:

Without making any sort of a statement.

Teams with outstanding talent will beat the majority of their opponents with average coaching.

Playing the elites is when the talent needs an extra boost.

True enough, but I wouldn't call Oklahoma State elite either.

Though Boise wasn't a "good win" in terms of we probably should have beaten them by two or three touch downs, Boise has a good chance to run the table on the rest of their schedule.

OSU is one of those "majority" of opponents you should beat with average coaching. No one is taking about them as a possible conference champ and definitely not a play off contender. Maybe they're better than most people thought.

Though I've been unable to watch either game live, replays show me a team getting beaten consistently on the line of scrimage on both sides of the ball. I understand that with a less experienced O line than we're used to, but the defensive front was thought by many to be the best unit in college football.

The number one stat that stuck out to me was Oregon zero QB sacks OSU three QB sacks. In the game today when you are not getting to the other team's QB and they are getting to yours you will struggle.

1 hour ago, OhioDuck said:

True enough, but I wouldn't call Oklahoma State elite either.

Though Boise wasn't a "good win" in terms of we probably should have beaten them by two or three touch downs, Boise has a good chance to run the table on the rest of their schedule.

OSU is one of those "majority" of opponents you should beat with average coaching. No one is taking about them as a possible conference champ and definitely not a play off contender. Maybe they're better than most people thought.

Though I've been unable to watch either game live, replays show me a team getting beaten consistently on the line of scrimage on both sides of the ball. I understand that with a less experienced O line than we're used to, but the defensive front was thought by many to be the best unit in college football.

The number one stat that stuck out to me was Oregon zero QB sacks OSU three QB sacks. In the game today when you are not getting to the other team's QB and they are getting to yours you will struggle.

Which I guess, tells me, that the coaching was sub standard that day. Not willing to take it too far yet.

On 9/14/2026 at 1:15 PM, Ktmguy2018 said:

What do we do with Dan Lanning?   Maybe, just maybe we go up to the 30,000 foot level and take another peak at this. I am still stunned and frustrated with this loss, but I forced myself to try and be objective.

I don't recommend that to anyone, it's very challenging when OBD are concerned, but I tried to do it for you so you don't have to.

Before we throw away the guy who has taken Oregon to a 48–8 record over four seasons, maybe we should remember that another coach once had fans questioning whether he was getting enough out of his program.

That coach was a guy by the name of Nick Saban.

Saban's first four seasons at LSU 38-13:

• 2000: 8–4

• 2001: 10–3 — SEC Champion

• 2002: 8–5

• 2003: 13–1 — SEC Champion & National Champion

After that 8–5 season in 2002, there was legitimate frustration around LSU. Expectations had risen. The talent was there. People questioned whether Saban was getting enough out of his players.

Sound familiar? Then came 2003.

Now look at Lanning:

• 2022: 10–3

• 2023: 12–2

• 2024: 13–1 — Big Ten Champion

• 2025: 13–2

48–8 vs 38-13

That's an absurd level of consistency.

And Lanning isn't doing it with mediocre recruiting. Oregon has become a national recruiting powerhouse, consistently bringing in elite talent while also mastering the transfer portal.  Saban's recruiting classes were routinely top 5 or better, and he had a slightly worse win/loss ratio, albeit with no transfer portal...because that didn't exist "technically".

So, does Lanning need to win a national championship? YES. At this point, that's the expectation at Oregon

You can't have this type of talent and resources and get beat by Oklahoma State or taken to the wire by Boise State.

But “we haven't won the championship yet” is not the same thing as “Lanning is an underachiever.”

If we're going to judge Lanning, let's judge the entire body of work and not just the frustration of the latest loss.

Because here's the uncomfortable truth:

Nick Saban didn't win his first national championship at LSU until Year 4.

Before that, there were losses. There were questions. There was frustration. There were people wondering whether all that talent was translating into enough wins.

Then everything clicked.

I'm not saying Dan Lanning is Nick Saban.

I'm saying maybe we should be very careful before declaring that a coach who is winning at an extraordinary rate, recruiting at an elite level, and has transformed Oregon into a national contender is somehow failing.

Now comes the hardest part:

FINISHING THE JOB

I believe that is where the majority of frustration comes from.  Being so close.   Supposedly having the pieces to do it.  Bringing back NFL talent that so far hasn't looked it.   

Comparisons are brutal, but warranted.   Will the Ducks win the CFP this year.   Not the way they look now.  But, WHEN they do, we may look back at these conversations very differently and see the growth of not just this program, but of Dan Lanning.

Terrific, well-reasoned post. Thank you.

Before he was hired by LSU, Saban had head coaching experience at Toledo and Michigan State. When he was hired Dan had no head coaching experience.

OK, it's an excuse. But on Saturday, Oregon should have been in Autzen Stadium playing San Jose State. Mullens screwed the pooch with his 2026 OOC scheduling, beginning with scheduling Boise State.

OOC, SC played San Jose State, Fresno State, and LA-LA, all games played in LA. SC goes 10-2 and is in the PO. OOC, Indiana plays three donut holes at home. Go 10-2, and Indiana returns to the PO.

Ohio State would make the same media revenue if it played Ohio U at home on Saturday instead of Texas, and would have cashiered home game revenue. Based on what happened to 9-3 Texas last season, Ohio State better go 8-1 the rest of the season to ensure a PO invite.

With today's roster turnover, manning up OOC is senseless. Nine B1G games provide enough schedule strength. Enough said on OOC scheduling.

---

Dan is 15-8 vs. Top 25 competition. Dan is 5-4 vs. Top 10 competition, and 3-3 vs. Top 5 competition.

Ryan Day is 27-11 vs. Top 25 opponents, 16-10 vs. Top 10, and 8-7 vs. the Top 5.

The winning percentages are similar. Day has a title; Dan does not. Why? Because in 2024, after losing again to Michigan, Day's team played to its potential and won four consecutive games to capture a crown.

If Day had lost the 1st-round home playoff game vs. Tennessee, would he still be employed by Ohio State?

Then, there's the GOAT -

Alabama Crimson Tide On SI

Snapshot of a Coaching Giant: Nick Saban's Record Against...

Nick Saban's success against ranked opponents, including at No. 1, stands out in college football history

Among current head coaches, at the P4 level, Curt Cignetti's two-year winning percentage against top competition is phenomenal. Even if he continues to win like this against top competition, he doesn't have the longevity to catch Saint Nick.

Your post today and Charles's post are reasoned looks at Dan's record.

The most disappointing thing about the loss on Saturday was the Ducks, especially on defense, going down with a whimper, as happened in the Rose and Peach Bowl losses.

Rick Neuheisel was far from the first person to reference the Jimmies and the Joes.

https://medium.com/an-idea/the-magic-recipe-for-success-2f112c1d5f7d

Dan has built top CFB rosters. He shouldn't lose often to unranked opponents, and he doesn't. What coach out there can recruit to Eugene like Dan?

If Dan were canned, he'd have a top CFB job in a matter of days that would likely come with a bump in pay.

One layup and then nine B1G games left. It's not how you start that matters; it's how you finish.

BTW, if you think Nick Saban was the only CFB coach pre-NIL bending the rules, I've got a bridge to sell you.

1 hour ago, Jon Joseph said:

Terrific, well-reasoned post. Thank you.

Before he was hired by LSU, Saban had head coaching experience at Toledo and Michigan State. When he was hired Dan had no head coaching experience.

OK, it's an excuse. But on Saturday, Oregon should have been in Autzen Stadium playing San Jose State. Mullens screwed the pooch with his 2026 OOC scheduling, beginning with scheduling Boise State.

OOC, SC played San Jose State, Fresno State, and LA-LA, all games played in LA. SC goes 10-2 and is in the PO. OOC, Indiana plays three donut holes at home. Go 10-2, and Indiana returns to the PO.

Ohio State would make the same media revenue if it played Ohio U at home on Saturday instead of Texas, and would have cashiered home game revenue. Based on what happened to 9-3 Texas last season, Ohio State better go 8-1 the rest of the season to ensure a PO invite.

With today's roster turnover, manning up OOC is senseless. Nine B1G games provide enough schedule strength. Enough said on OOC scheduling.

---

Dan is 15-8 vs. Top 25 competition. Dan is 5-4 vs. Top 10 competition, and 3-3 vs. Top 5 competition.

Ryan Day is 27-11 vs. Top 25 opponents, 16-10 vs. Top 10, and 8-7 vs. the Top 5.

The winning percentages are similar. Day has a title; Dan does not. Why? Because in 2024, after losing again to Michigan, Day's team played to its potential and won four consecutive games to capture a crown.

If Day had lost the 1st-round home playoff game vs. Tennessee, would he still be employed by Ohio State?

Then, there's the GOAT -

Alabama Crimson Tide On SI

Snapshot of a Coaching Giant: Nick Saban's Record Against...

Nick Saban's success against ranked opponents, including at No. 1, stands out in college football history

Among current head coaches, at the P4 level, Curt Cignetti's two-year winning percentage against top competition is phenomenal. Even if he continues to win like this against top competition, he doesn't have the longevity to catch Saint Nick.

Your post today and Charles's post are reasoned looks at Dan's record.

The most disappointing thing about the loss on Saturday was the Ducks, especially on defense, going down with a whimper, as happened in the Rose and Peach Bowl losses.

Rick Neuheisel was far from the first person to reference the Jimmies and the Joes.

https://medium.com/an-idea/the-magic-recipe-for-success-2f112c1d5f7d

Dan has built top CFB rosters. He shouldn't lose often to unranked opponents, and he doesn't. What coach out there can recruit to Eugene like Dan?

If Dan were canned, he'd have a top CFB job in a matter of days that would likely come with a bump in pay.

One layup and then nine B1G games left. It's not how you start that matters; it's how you finish.

BTW, if you think Nick Saban was the only CFB coach pre-NIL bending the rules, I've got a bridge to sell you.

So, because coach Satan, er Saban wasnt the only cheater, that makes it okay? Good to know.