Mike West

I take that back, Alabama is a good two loss team.

Oh we know exactly how those 4-2 and 5-2 teams are doing. Although I am not impressed with UCLA, there isn't a single SEC team that has lost two games I am impressed with. I don't think any of them should be higher than 15.

Good read David. I understand very much about life issues. I can't do a quarter of the things I planned to do this year. I think the past 24 hours might explain some of what has been happening all year. This team is not focused. Maybe I'm way off base, but the unfortunate news yesterday feels like a microcosm of the year. I shared your same preseason concerns outside of special teams. You even summarized it better than I could say in an entire article LOL. One concern I briefly brought up was our fan base. I saw rumblings of the same sentiment that got Penn State in the very situation they currently face. While I don't think the team is fine, I'm not nearly as concerned as our entire fan base is. It is what it is at this point. And the disappointment the entire fanbase has expressed is more disappointing the the performance on the field. We're not going to the playoffs. That's less of a concern to me than what Lanning has been doing. I give him a A+. I've never seen Lanning look so worried all year. And he has shown remarkable poise as every one else has been screaming the sky is falling. I've got to hand it to our media though. They've been far more professional about the chagrin they've faced along with us. The way they've been asking questions we've all been talking about is as impressive as he's been. I look forward to the rest of the season. Enthusiastically. I'm more tuned in than when we were riding the coattails of our semifinal appearance.

All three conference games, the defense performed well. All three conference games I think they could have shaved 10 points off of each of the opponents. I will say I'm as spoiled as all of Duck Nation (that I'm ticked off at right now) when it comes to my expectations about the defense. Mostly because I've been doing a lot of research, and there's a reason for a lot of the stuff that's been going on. So I've been overreacting to some plays. And Lanning's last press conference confirmed that the information I've been getting from my research is far more credible than the responses I've had all season about the defense. Outside of looking at the damn QB all the time of course (and that is by no means exclusive to OBD- Georgia lost a Natty for the that specific reason). I'm hoping the defense makes "the kinds of adjustments" that makes this defense even better. To date, this group of talented young men have been giving up on average 33 points to Elite offenses the past 3 years. So far so good, let's hope it gets to be ridiculously awesome.

I can't than any of the bubble screens or tunnel screens. Everybody seems to know when it's coming, and the blocking is always atrocious. They all look at what Ohio state does with Jeremiah Smith. That's the kind of screen I can get behind.

Wasn't everybody just about to scream to the television when he lined up for a regular fourth down play in the middle of the game against Nebraska? I know I was LOL. I'm surprised nobody thought that he was gambling that his team was going to come from behind by playing it so close to the vest. I think a lot of people need to start paying attention to what he says not how they feel about it. My thoughts of course because during this disaster I think Lanning has kept the wheels from falling off. If our fan base were running things, we would be winless in conference games.

Great comment. I always want to write a novel in response. Not this time. You cut to the chase on several topics and issues.

You and me both. My response wasn't directed at you per se (or simply a response to your analysis). As I have said before-you see the game in slow motion-better than most of us. Let me expand on why I believe the scheme is the issue: the install for this defense allows for some flexibility that fits the unit, its components, and the talent within the unit. But there's more, it also is flexible enough as a base to provide a multitude of looks and strategies. I didn't believe that myself until I looked into it. You specifically mention Koi has a terrible sense of pursuing the ball at the proper angle. It seriously nullifies his speed. I believe you said that is a coaching issue (more like a damn malfunction if you ask me). While scheme has nothing to do with that, the flexibility within the scheme allows for it to a degree. Koi is too fast to bench. So what can be done to exploit his talent? That is the question. I finally got to see highlights of the Georgia at Bama game. Let me tell you, Kirby Smart realizes he has to modify the Mint-because I saw variations to it-including putting 5 guys at the Line of Scrimmage. I am seeing it a bit with Lanning. But I haven't had the time to really get into it. But my study has led me to the conclusion the install is flexible enough to throw teams off because they wouldn't be able scout tendencies as much. Again, this game is far more complex that we hacks have time or expertise to judge. This year more than ever, I have been humbled because I have discovered Lanning and his staff ARE on this and think about our concerns far more than we grasp. I think Duck Nation is convulsing over the dramatic difference in performance than we expected. And I am being kind when I say that (that I will actually address because I am starting to get annoyed with our fellow fans).

The players are fine. The scheme isn't. The right scheme? This would be an elite defense and we would be undefeated had they showed up in September with the scheme. I see several teams that are going to crack it if we were fortunate enough to reach the playoffs. Of course, the install is flexible enough they could shift away from tendencies and actually dominate. As much as I love DL, he won't do that. All the points scored this year are do to scheme (and looking at that damn QB). Change the scheme to better fit the talent and this is a 14 PPG unit ( and nobody would have scored 20 this year). My opinion of course.

So I have been pretty silent about criticizing the staff as of late. I am not happy with the defense. Despite how well they played. But...they did what was necessary to win. I'll take that. I wanted to show everyone some things about the defense this week-good and bad. And I understand some of the dynamics of what is happening right now. I need to look at the offense like that as well (I just don't have the time). I may wait until the end of the season to go into the kind of detail I have uncovered. I didn't want to stress everyone out this week. We are rightfully all on edge at the moment. We don't need any more stress than the nightmares we are witnessing right now.

Maybe I am alone in thinking the plays on that last drive looked almost identical to the play calling all game. And I really don't care. I am sure OBD will not win playing, looking or coaching like that all year. But if they win ugly for the rest of my life, they win. I know I will age a thousand years, but I will take it. One damn day at a time. We are trying to solve every problem known to this team this very second. It is not going to happen. Tomorrow is another day. And let's be real here. We have not looked like a championship team Lanning's entire tenure. And he still wins a hell of a lot more than he loses.

I'm stressed too folks. But I am going to stand by Dan Lanning. WARTS AND ALL. I don't like what I see, and I don't care. I am willing to be patient. I know, and I believe all of us know just how difficult it is to win a title. Indiana got incredibly lucky last year. No matter how much fanfare Cignetti gets. If Carson Beck throws that pass five more yards downfield-Mario Cristobal would have been called a pretty damn good coach. Five yards folks. Remember that when you think Lanning has to be the most brilliant coach this planet has ever produced.

That the offense was so bad. Seventeen Points. Thought we would lose. But I won my bet... Never again

I think NIL is degrading the quality of football nationwide. These kids can't put in the time the pros are able to. And it's showing up in every program.

Here's my perspective: In Lanning's best 3 years against elite teams OBD have scored on average 23 PPG and given up 35. Sure we want to be in the discussion, but in those 7 games we have performed significantly less than EVERY ELITE TEAM. It's something I've held back since the Spring. We've all deluded ourselves based on a simple look at the scoreboard. This year's team would have had to play flawless football, and we haven't seen that from Lanning or the players during his tenure. And frankly, we don't look even close to elite when you watch teams that are elite. I truly believe Dan Lanning is getting the very best out of players that don't measure up. Maybe not this year, but that is practically beside the point. People (trolls and those that hate Oregon) say Dan is a fraud. Lanning would probably make any of the middle tier in the B1G play above their level. If we want a title, were going to have to do better than our Ohio State victory in Eugene. OBD are going to have to beat elite teams by 7 to 11 points to truly be considered a contender. That is a tall task for any program. But that would restore credibility in our building. Excellence requires more. We will know we're on the cusp when people start fearing us. Everybody.

Its good for the teams and fan bases outside the Power 2. Hopefully, programs won't start pulling the NBA and MLB move that scratch players on short notice any given week ( to rest players "for the sake of the season"). That is the biggest concern for me. I certainly hope this ends expansion forever. Lord knows football is nothing like March Madness.

I've actually delved into whether any team can change philosophy (aka installs) mid stream...it can and has worked for other teams. It IS easier to accomplish on defense. Installs usually provide a foundation built for adjustments.

34-17 Nebraska 0 turnovers 1 sack 200 yards passing I am putting my money where my mouth is on this one. I live in Vegas. One caveat-every single time I have bet against OBD (and yes I took USC), I have lost. Every single time. So let's hope I am wrong. Let's hope my pick is and Epic demonstration of flawed analysis.

I have no problem with the disagreement. And I actually agree with your thought process. I just don't have a problem with a 6-3 result against a team I didn't (and still don't believe ) would defeat us no matter the result. It took 7 turnovers, an abysmal performance by every key position on offense that matters (OL and QB), no sign of adjustments until it was too late for that very outcome to emerge. Do you know the statistical impossibility of those very things happening in order for that 2 point miss to even be a remote possibility much even a possibility of a loss? The decision was immaterial in my estimation. UNLESS I thought UCLA was actually going to score points. Not one person on this entire planet took into consideration the game could have been a 6-3 result. Or 9-3 since we scored another 3 points. After all, the defense pretty much pitched a shutout. UCLA only scored because of OBD offense. Think about it. UCLA won this game by 2 points despite forcing 7 turnovers. Did you really think OBD were going to score 6 points all game going into the 4th quarter? If you did, then I believe every one on the planet would expect the Ducks to lose because teams just don't win games scoring 6 points. Even with the best of of defenses. It's why Michigan looks so lousy. 7 points wasn't going to change the outcome given the myriad of concerns you mentioned. And 7 points was how it was looking no matter what UCLA did. In other words, 2 points or 1 point wasn't really the issue in this game or for the season. There are a multitude of issues far greater than a 2 point conversion (that wasn't a guarantee we win the game anyway. It only assured a tie at best). We are criticizing the very characteristics that not only defines Dan Lanning, it resulted in his success. How many games has he lost versus won making decisions like that? He beat one of the best teams ever to grace a college football field making multiple decisions like that. So much so I happen to believe Ryan Day tanked the Michigan game so he wouldn't have to face OBD 3 times in one season. I can't prove it because Day would never admit it like Lanning did after another gamble of his that game: taking the penalty. And that's the gist of it. Lanning will probably never field a team with 2022/2023 Georgia or 2024 Ohio State caliber talent. He's 2-3 against elite teams. All of whom had better talent than OBD - potential and performance wise. Lanning's challenge is to overcome an apparent flaw he didn't see ( and neither did we): a coaching staff beneath the level of the very elite he has to face. His decision making is fine. His talent base is not. He is calibrating his risk taking. He needs a full contingent of talent before we can honestly say he makes poor decisions. Outside of his decision making to field such a team.

I keep seeing the 2pt after after the first TD was silly. I still haven't seen the game (will tomorrow). Wasn't that score very early in the game. I think that's an assumption he would score more than one TD at that point. I see no reason to question it. That would mean every in the WHOLE world would have to know it was going to be so consequential late in the game. Nobody could know that.. Just like is Seattle, nobody knew OBD would lose by exactly 3 point. And if anyone did, please message me- I need billions of dollars - I live in Vegas and I can clean out the sports books and casinos

I've already heard rumors he is considering transferring.

I understand the anger and frustration. I believe it is out of proportion to the success Lanning has proven to date. The decisions look poor because we are losing. We don't lose our perspective when those decisions result in wins. To date, those kinds of decisions have produced the fastest start in Oregon history for a coach. A perspective I want to offer is if this season is a "bust", so what? Lanning is the right guy for the job bar none. I remember the bottom ten Ducks. From our high expectation lense, that's what we look like. That is false. Outside of the Georgia game, last week was the worst performance in the Lanning era. Not all losses are equal. And this loss is no indication we are returning back to the bottom ten. We have extraordinary expectations. They aren't being met. That's called life. Sometimes you have to lose to learn how to win. Lanning's identity is aggression. It will remain so. He is calibrating how to use it. That is where we are at.

I am commenting before I actually look at the comments which I am sure are great. I trust the observations here I just wanted to respond even before I look at the game. The offensive line has been a mess the entire season. So it is no surprise that we look so disjointed on offense. Everything revolves around dealing with the absolute fact that this offensive line is not going to be elite, it is bordering on subpar. I believe everybody knows what that means - we have to change the way we approach moving the ball down field, and scoring points. Simple, right? But what does that really look like? That isn't the answer the damn lighting must provide the way that he wants to get it done. Unfortunately for us we don't get to advise him like we're at a Knights round table. Very good article David. So I'm enjoying your series of very thoughtful analysis.

guys (gals), we are going to be ok. Lanning and company have hit an extraordinary speed bump. He has already proven he can adjust under duress. This is a project that he will grow from, and he has shown me he has incredible poise despite the massive pressure he faces to perform at the highest elite level against some pretty damn good coaches and their staffs. He has achieved so much in so little time we have been spoiled. Whomever he starts, and however he attacks this challenge, know that this crises will pass and time will tell how far we climb as a program. We may not reach the pinnacle this year, or any other. Being in the elite circle of contenders is fine for me. It takes an incredible amount of luck and fortune to win a title. Look at Cristobal. He is only a few years ahead in terms of experience( and he doesn't have a title either despite some "natural" advantages we have to overcome). It takes time. It took Rich Brooks 20 years. Remember that. We went from an Indiana universe to an Oregon Universe with a blend of different styles and approaches. And we are in the group despite our current challenges. This year is a lesson we must be patient and thankful. We have been able to talk about earning our first title for nearly 20 years. Dozens of programs will never have the opportunity we have. No reason to panic. It will all work out the way it is supposed to,

I have to take a hard look at the entire picture before I make definitive judgements on the coaching staff. There are mountains of evidence to pour over. But I am sure the team's confidence is shattered. I do know this: same as it ever was is a recipe for disaster. I'd rather see a 1890s scheme than what we have seen the past three years. But that's just me. We have to let nature take it's course while Lanning decides what he is going to do.