I posted earlier about the “old days,” when at Oregon, we almost always developed our own QBs. Today, no program can afford to wait to grow its own.

I can be slow to the party, but with NIL and revenue sharing, the quarterback has become the pinnacle of the true free-agent market. The transfer portal is where many of these players will make more money than many will earn the rest of their lives.

The pay curve is steep. At a top program, a backup earns around $1 million, and a highly recruited backup gets closer to $1.5-2 million (reportedly, Dylan gets $2 million). A starter makes $3–4 million, and elite transfers get $5–6.5 million (Dante $5 million).

And the crazy thing is, when we look at the massive amount of money involved in CFB, they’re worth it – even worth the risk. It finally occurred to me that a talented backup QB can no longer afford to 'wait his turn.' Every season he sits can cost him millions, and his value drops.

I have to remind myself that most of these kids making $1–3 million per year will never take a snap in the NFL. For them, this is payday (and this is true of all other positions... the numbers are just lower).

There’s always been a transactional relationship in CFB between the institution and the players and coaches. But it’s now finally occurred to me that it is almost entirely transactional… and on steroids. Both the kids and the coaches have understandably entered the mercenary-portal.

As I said, I can be a bit slow to the party. But it finally occurred to me today that the old path in CFB of truly developing QBs died a quiet death.

Too bad most of those kids will have little to no education or self discipline ine the matters of money management.

Many are doomed to struggle with that when "student athlete" begins to fade in the rear view mirror.

Good insight, Desert Duck. I am like you - just don't get or enjoy this new age of CFB. Raiola getting paid $2M is insame and borderline criminal, judging from his performance so far. What happened to common sense nowadays?

By the same token, cudos to AS Jr for sticking around so far. For that he deserves to get a chance to play and show what he can or can't do. If he can't deliever, the fault is more on the coaches for failing to develop him. Like you said, that's simply not their focus any more. Why do the hard work when someone else can buy your players and you can buy anyone's players?

Edited 22 hours ago22 hr by DuckFan93

I don't think developing QBs has died. I do think that development of QBs has largely been offloaded to other programs (like lower tier P4 or G6) and the richer programs take them through the transfer portal in year 3+.

3 hours ago, kirklandduck said:

I don't think developing QBs has died. I do think that development of QBs has largely been offloaded to other programs (like lower tier P4 or G6) and the richer programs take them through the transfer portal in year 3+.

Good point. So those programs kind of become like Minor League Baseball teams, but for college football. All of those programs are our feeder schools.

13 minutes ago, Desert Duck said:

Good point. So those programs kind of become like Minor League Baseball teams, but for college football. All of those programs are our feeder schools.

Pretty much. Of course top tier teams will still recruit a blue chip QB each year simply because other recruits (WRs, RBs, etc.) will follow and build the recruiting class. If they develop into a solid starter, great! If not, an experienced incoming transfer takes over.

I don't disagree.

Charles has been talking for a couple years about OBD being better off going to the portal for its QB rather than trying to grow them.

Given this new landscape, are star HS QBs now better off going to second-tier programs with good OC and QB coaching in place in order to get playing time and development in hopes of transferring to a top-tier program? Seems like this is becoming the more common pattern...

30 minutes ago, bbmichaels said:

I don't disagree.

Charles has been talking for a couple years about OBD being better off going to the portal for its QB rather than trying to grow them.

Given this new landscape, are star HS QBs now better off going to second-tier programs with good OC and QB coaching in place in order to get playing time and development in hopes of transferring to a top-tier program? Seems like this is becoming the more common pattern...

I dont think the big time college coaches have enough time to coach the fundamentals. You either have those down or you dont. Spring and summer football are about conditioning and repetitions.

1 hour ago, bbmichaels said:

Charles has been talking for a couple years about OBD being better off going to the portal for its QB rather than trying to grow them.

Yep, and the problem is depth; you need to have 4 or 5 QBs to be on the safe side, thus why we continue to recruit HS QBs I believe.

However this year....I believe we should get TWO portal QBs, whoever is best starts in '27, with the other waiting for his turn in '28.

It's like $4-mil to make the playoffs and $4-mil to host a playoff game, and how much to make the conference championship game this last year?

College football is a business now and you can't have a QB learn on the job unless they are generational like Trevor Lawerence.

The teams playing at the top of the food chain are getting experienced portal QB's

Edited 17 hours ago17 hr by dazednconfused

6 minutes ago, Charles Fischer said:

Yep, and the problem is depth; you need to have 4 or 5 QBs to be on the safe side, thus why we continue to recruit HS QBs I believe.

However this year....I believe we should get TWO portal QBs, whoever is best starts in '27, with the other waiting for his turn in '28.

100% agree we need at least one portal QB. Riola can't read a two-defender set over three WR-set pre-snap, cut him loose and get two QB's.

I should have titled this:

"Why Growing Your Own QB Has Died a Quiet Death at Top-20 Programs"

The best QB we've had since Marcus (Bo) came through the portal so it is possible. It's also highly possible you end up with a lemon here and there. Seems like the NIL / transfer era should have come with a "lower your expectations" waring.

20 hours ago, woundedknees said:

Too bad most of those kids will have little to no education or self discipline ine the matters of money management.

Many are doomed to struggle with that when "student athlete" begins to fade in the rear view mirror.

I'd imagine that as part of the sales pitch to recruits, schools will start offering official accredited personal finance courses that include how to handle windfalls.

There is nothing bad with paying players a market rate for the services they provide. If people think it's too much money then stop watching and buying gear so there isn't as much revenue to share with them.

Thanks for the terrific post.

In 2026, transfer QBs have started games for Rutgers, Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Washington, Oregon, UCLA, and USC, 77.77% of conference programs.

In 2026, the only Big Ten team with two or fewer losses and playing a home grown QB is Minnesota.

In the SEC, Georgia's Matthew Stafford, Texas's Archie Manning, A&M's Mercel Reed, and both of Tennessee's starting freshmen qbs are home grown.

In 2026, transfer QBs have started games for Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt.

In 2026, transfer QBs have started for 42 of the 68 FBS football programs, 61.8%.

2024-25 champion Ohio State, and 2025-26 champion Indiana, started transfer QBs. Will Howard and Fernando Mendoza were in the middle, not the top, of their respective group of QB transfers.

Spot on noting that roster management today is a full time, year round job.

21 hours ago, Desert Duck said:

A starter makes $3–4 million, and elite transfers get $5–6.5 million (Dante $5 million).

As an aside, I wonder whether he's getting paid the same while sitting out the season.

40 minutes ago, Solar said:

There is nothing bad with paying players a market rate for the services they provide. If people think it's too much money then stop watching and buying gear so there isn't as much revenue to share with them.

I guess you are right - we really shouldn't be so upset about how much these players make. After all, it's not our (at least my) money! Well, most of it ain't mine, even if I pay to watch the games on TV or at the stadium. It's uncle Phil and other big donors who should be upset.

Edited 1 hour ago1 hr by DuckFan93