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Marsh Duck - Pre-Season Concerns Still Haunt the Ducks
Monday, Monday, can't trust that day. Thank you for the Tuesday Take. Forum Friends are happy that you can find the time to contribute your thoughts. Your articles are enjoyable and on target. I recall after Spring Ball how many Oregon fans were concerned about the kicking game. And were confident the inexperienced O-line players would come through. Whoops! The Massey Ratings, like the Rivals site, was purchased by On3. Massey strength of schedule (SOS) rankings are used below. There are 68 Power 4 teams, including Notre Dame. 4-2 Oregon is ranked 27th in the latest AP Poll. Through Week 7, Oregon's SOS is ranked 16th; the remaining schedule is ranked 20th. 6-0 Texas Tech is ranked 8th in the AP Poll. SOS 71. Future SOS 57. 6-0 No. 1 Miami SOS to date is 65. Future SOS 57. Yes, the 2026 schedule has been more difficult than many expected. Human voters and the PO committee continue to pay lip service to SOS. Oregon is ranked 10th by FPI; 11th by SP+; and 17th by Massey. Today, according to the human voters, No. 16 USC and No. 21 Boise State would be included in a 24-team PO field. Oregon and No. 25 5-2 Oklahoma State would be left out. Four two-loss SEC teams would be among the nine SEC teams in the field. Once again in 2026, we see that a loss by an SEC team to another SEC team is forgiven in the AP and Coaches polls. I get it, you have to play the schedule you are dealt. But it is far from a fair fight; especially when the rankings are mostly based on the Eye Test. My preseason concerns about a sneaky difficult schedule and four new O-line starters, with only an FCS athlete brought in from the portal, have unfortunately been met. My concerns about the kicking game? Not warranted. My thinking was that the defense would play as it has in the last two games. HMMMMMMMM. Thanks again, David, for making the effort to make such a significant contribution to the Forum.
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QB Injuries And Transfer Rules Effects
Teams have had trouble retaining depth at QB in a system where players can transfer every year. Oregon has been blessed by having Dillon Gabriel follow Bo Nix, and then having Dante Moore be willing to sit a year before taking over. While Dylan Riola's performance over three games has been uneven, without him we would have lost all three games he played in, rather than one. Next weekend we play an Illinois team that will need to start a true freshman. The same seems likely for Ohio State. You can only play one QB at a time, and alternating QBs in a game has rarely been productive, although substituting when a QB has not been productive can be, and has been for Oregon the past three weeks. Other than freshmen, the trend has been for non-starter QBs to transfer. They want to be on the field, which is understandable. Until recent times, having to sit it out a year discouraged transferring until it became apparent that a QB would never start at his present school. Having to redshirt after transferring in most circumstances disincentivized transferring. As I understand, the rules have been changed effective a date I am not aware of, where the first transfer a player makes does not require sitting a year, but a second transfer would impose that requirement. This might return some level of stability on the QB depth charts. It should also put some breaks on NIL bidding wars.
Today
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Marsh Duck - Pre-Season Concerns Still Haunt the Ducks
Good read David. I understand very much about life issues. I can't do a quarter of the things I planned to do this year. I think the past 24 hours might explain some of what has been happening all year. This team is not focused. Maybe I'm way off base, but the unfortunate news yesterday feels like a microcosm of the year. I shared your same preseason concerns outside of special teams. You even summarized it better than I could say in an entire article LOL. One concern I briefly brought up was our fan base. I saw rumblings of the same sentiment that got Penn State in the very situation they currently face. While I don't think the team is fine, I'm not nearly as concerned as our entire fan base is. It is what it is at this point. And the disappointment the entire fanbase has expressed is more disappointing the the performance on the field. We're not going to the playoffs. That's less of a concern to me than what Lanning has been doing. I give him a A+. I've never seen Lanning look so worried all year. And he has shown remarkable poise as every one else has been screaming the sky is falling. I've got to hand it to our media though. They've been far more professional about the chagrin they've faced along with us. The way they've been asking questions we've all been talking about is as impressive as he's been. I look forward to the rest of the season. Enthusiastically. I'm more tuned in than when we were riding the coattails of our semifinal appearance.
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Defense: Spreadsheet Vs. Eye Test
Whats the snap count. Thats a pretty important piece to consider
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Marsh Duck - Pre-Season Concerns Still Haunt the Ducks
At this point due to my life schedule (and an absolutely awful weekend) I am just moving my featured article to Tuesday. So Marsh Duck Tuesday.... doesn't sound as good as Monday but it's what I can do right now. Pre-Season Concerns Still Haunt the Ducks in Mid OctoberIt’s strange in a season when there are a few concerns during the off season and those become the concerns during the season.
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One OFFENSIVE Play I Don't Ever Want to See Again...
Exactly! Great post, Solar. Watch how Indiana runs their short passing game. The ball is out in front on a quick slant or screen. The receiver is never catching the ball with their back to the defense. They get tons of YAC. Then look at Oregon. They ask their receivers to turn 180 and catch the ball behind the line of scrimmage and then turn and make a play, all while the entire defense is running downhill towards them. They get little to no YAC in most cases. Oregon has amazing skill position talent, but you have to put them into a situation to succeed. Oregon consistently doesn’t do that in the short passing game. They ignore the middle of the field and the ball is never out in front.
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Defense: Spreadsheet Vs. Eye Test
All three conference games, the defense performed well. All three conference games I think they could have shaved 10 points off of each of the opponents. I will say I'm as spoiled as all of Duck Nation (that I'm ticked off at right now) when it comes to my expectations about the defense. Mostly because I've been doing a lot of research, and there's a reason for a lot of the stuff that's been going on. So I've been overreacting to some plays. And Lanning's last press conference confirmed that the information I've been getting from my research is far more credible than the responses I've had all season about the defense. Outside of looking at the damn QB all the time of course (and that is by no means exclusive to OBD- Georgia lost a Natty for the that specific reason). I'm hoping the defense makes "the kinds of adjustments" that makes this defense even better. To date, this group of talented young men have been giving up on average 33 points to Elite offenses the past 3 years. So far so good, let's hope it gets to be ridiculously awesome.
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One OFFENSIVE Play I Don't Ever Want to See Again...
I can't than any of the bubble screens or tunnel screens. Everybody seems to know when it's coming, and the blocking is always atrocious. They all look at what Ohio state does with Jeremiah Smith. That's the kind of screen I can get behind.
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Lanning’s Reckless Fourth-Down Gambles vs. His Crippling Fear of Turnovers
Wasn't everybody just about to scream to the television when he lined up for a regular fourth down play in the middle of the game against Nebraska? I know I was LOL. I'm surprised nobody thought that he was gambling that his team was going to come from behind by playing it so close to the vest. I think a lot of people need to start paying attention to what he says not how they feel about it. My thoughts of course because during this disaster I think Lanning has kept the wheels from falling off. If our fan base were running things, we would be winless in conference games.
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Why Lanning Will NOT Replace the Offensive Coordinator and O-Line Coaches....
The 4th quarter was encouraging. Several factors contributed. It was way past Neb's bedtime, Oregon's first drive was 17 plays / 7:42, Neb 3 and out 1:47, Ducks 20 / 5:03. 37 defensive snaps for Neb. The positive is the play calling. We did not abandon the run, great mixture of plays and of course good QB play. Hopefully, we have discovered the OLine secret sauce for the duration.
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Oregon - Nebraska Post-Game Reports, Interviews, Etc.
Fans expressed their displeasure at Oregon coaches at halftime. Oregon Ducks On SIDan Lanning Addresses Fans Booing During Oregon's Win Ove...The Oregon Ducks (3-2 overall, 2-1 Big Ten) pulled off a tight 17-14 win against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in front of their fans at Autzen Stadium, bouncing bac
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Why Lanning Will NOT Replace the Offensive Coordinator and O-Line Coaches....
Great comment. I always want to write a novel in response. Not this time. You cut to the chase on several topics and issues.
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AP Poll Week 7-8 - My Thoughts - Yours?
Picking up where Gat's post, immediately above, left off. Five P4 teams are undefeated after Week 7. Three are from the B12, 1 ACC team, and UCLA. UCLA is the only Power 2 team that is undefeated. Using Massey strength of schedule (SOS), current and future. There are 68 Power 4 teams, including Notre Dame. Strength of Record (SOR) rankings use ESPN's FPI rankings. 4-2 Oregon - 16 to date/ 20 remaining - SOR 29 6-0 No. 1 Miami - 65/ 57 - SOR No. 5 The Canes have one Top 25 win vs. 17 Wake Forest. No. 4 Notre Dame is the only ranked team left to play; November 7th in South Bend. 6-0 No. 2 BYU - 22/ 31 - SOR No. 1 BYU has two Top 25 wins: 25 Arizona and No. 4 Notre Dame, both in Provo. A much tougher schedule than Miami's, now and in the remaining six games. 6-0 No. 8 Texas Tech - 71/ 57 - SOR No. 8 One Top 25 win against 14 Houston in Lubbock. No. 25 Arizona is the only remaining Top 25 team on the Red Raiders' schedule; Lubbock on 10/31. 6-0 No. 9 UCLA - 31/ 52 - SOR No. 3 No wins against the Top 25. No. 16 USC in the final game of the season in Pasadena is the only Top 25 team the Bruins have left to play. Bob Chesney coming to UCLA from James Madison and a lightweight schedule is eerily reminiscent of Curt Cignetti's first season at Indiana in 2024. 6-0 No. 10 Utah - 61/ 50 - SOR 13 No Top 25 wins to date. This Saturday, 14 Houston visits with College GameDay going from Provo in Week 7 to Salt Lake City in Week 8. The Utes play No. 2 BYU at home on November 7th and No. 25 Arizona in Tucson the following week. --- Four two-loss teams are ranked in the latest AP Poll: No. 13 5-2 Alabama; No. 18 5-2 LSU; No. 20 5-2 Florida; No. 22 5-2 Missouri. No two-loss team from outside the SEC is ranked. AP Poll rankings are an art and not a science, with many pollsters painting with an SEC-centric brush. Based on its 10-2 out-of-conference record against Power 4 opponents, the SEC does deserve a fair amount of love. However, nine SEC teams ranked in the Top 25 is over the top. 5-2 Oklahoma State was ranked No. 18, lost on the road to No. 14 Houston by three points, and is no longer ranked. This kind of stuff is male bovine excrement, and why Tony Petitti insists on a 16-team playoff with eight play-in games. Blast Bret Bielema. Make his Illini ILL!
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High Praise For The Defense
You and me both. My response wasn't directed at you per se (or simply a response to your analysis). As I have said before-you see the game in slow motion-better than most of us. Let me expand on why I believe the scheme is the issue: the install for this defense allows for some flexibility that fits the unit, its components, and the talent within the unit. But there's more, it also is flexible enough as a base to provide a multitude of looks and strategies. I didn't believe that myself until I looked into it. You specifically mention Koi has a terrible sense of pursuing the ball at the proper angle. It seriously nullifies his speed. I believe you said that is a coaching issue (more like a damn malfunction if you ask me). While scheme has nothing to do with that, the flexibility within the scheme allows for it to a degree. Koi is too fast to bench. So what can be done to exploit his talent? That is the question. I finally got to see highlights of the Georgia at Bama game. Let me tell you, Kirby Smart realizes he has to modify the Mint-because I saw variations to it-including putting 5 guys at the Line of Scrimmage. I am seeing it a bit with Lanning. But I haven't had the time to really get into it. But my study has led me to the conclusion the install is flexible enough to throw teams off because they wouldn't be able scout tendencies as much. Again, this game is far more complex that we hacks have time or expertise to judge. This year more than ever, I have been humbled because I have discovered Lanning and his staff ARE on this and think about our concerns far more than we grasp. I think Duck Nation is convulsing over the dramatic difference in performance than we expected. And I am being kind when I say that (that I will actually address because I am starting to get annoyed with our fellow fans).
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Why Lanning Will NOT Replace the Offensive Coordinator and O-Line Coaches....
The current negative vibe will do one of two things, it will make the coaches/players turn on each other, or they will come together and become stronger as a unit. If they become stronger, it will become a turning point for all involved, especially for DL. If they turn on each other, personnel changes will be necessary. The coaching profession is based upon winning. I don’t ever want to see a win at all costs environment at Oregon. Firing someone is an easy option, but in this profession, if you don’t replace them with someone who has immediate success( not so easy ), you can create a downward spiral. I still believe.
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Which is More Startling to You....?
The Toilet Bowl 0-0 tie from the Brooks era comes to mind...
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Why Lanning Will NOT Replace the Offensive Coordinator and O-Line Coaches....
I am aware that our receivers and starting qb and an offensive lineman are hurt. This is real. We overcame that last game despite a very poor qb outing for 3 quarters. It's nice to see we have another quality running back. The defense, is looking much better against the run and pressuring qb The offensive Line is obviously an issue. Correctable, maybe? I have hope. Not confidence, but hope! Go Ducks.. All games are winnable, keep winning we are favored in all... but of course Ohio State who looks beatable..
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Oregon - Nebraska Post-Game Reports, Interviews, Etc.
Nebraska Game Report Card. https://duckswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/ducks/football/2026/10/18/oregon-football-week-7-report-card-middling-grades/92312243007/
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Why Lanning Will NOT Replace the Offensive Coordinator and O-Line Coaches....
Good point, Charles! Our information is just conjecture blended into existence by what we see. Then crafted to fit our personal conclusions. Those conclusions are part of the foundation for this great Forum. We all can see the very same game and have hundreds of view points and opinions. It makes for great threads! Case in point...... I was unable to watch the game live. I followed the Forum game thread and it was clear to me that the sky had fallen and the imminent collapse of the Duck football program was upon us. GEEEZ..... I then read the post game comments and the majority of comments, AFTER A BIG WIN, were negative. Which, to me is understandable because of the heat of the moment for this great fan base. So this morning at 4 am I watched the game. My view point and take away was that there was way more positive than negative. So I watched the game again. Sure love fast forward and rewind. Again, you could see positive improvements in many areas for our Ducks. I could create pages of positives but do not have the energy or stamina to do that. So here are a few. O Line play in the first half and thru out the game was improved. More room for improvement, though! The play calls were solid and diverse, with a few new plays. The only reason the Ducks didn't march down the field and score was because BT missed too many wide open receivers. Repeatedly! DL and the OC created plays that BT could execute. It was a good game plan. For the most part, BT had time to throw, he was just off and didnt settle down. He had time because the line blocked. IMHO, Brock is not terrible, nor does he suck. He had a bad game. He is a walkon! The run blocking was improved but there were too many missed assignments by the Ducks. If that improves each week then more points will show up on the scoreboard. Also as,I mentioned , BT is a walk on QB! He is not 5☆ BN with 60 plus starts. Or 5☆DG with 60 plus starts. Nor is he 5☆DM who will mostvlikely be a first round draft pick.All 3 could read the D and audible out. The Ducks O Line played well enough to be up by 17 at the half. BT did not execute and JD supposedly fumbled inside the 10. That is what kept points off the board. Also, consider all the receivers and RB's were true freshmen or sophmores. DS and JM were not out there to help BT. The Cornhuskers could double DM and the Ducks TE. But again, the plays were there, BT just couldnt execute. It happens! Just ask Texas, Georgia, Bama, ND and Mizzou. The Ducks should have scored 14 points, not 6 in the 3rd quarter. The D was was exceptional. Nebraska had 2, that's right, 2 sustained drives the entire game. One ending with a very generous, officiated assisted TD. This team gave IU everything they could handle. They could do nothing against the Duck D. The D has improved every game since the OSU embarrassment. What more are we expecting from them. In the last 4 games the Ducks have given up 58 points. Like 14.5 points per game. And Bear had his best game as a Duck.... Thankfully, DL pulled BT and brought in DR. For the 2nd time this season, DR came off the bench to lead the Ducks to victory. The same plays that BT could not execute thru 3 quarters were there for DR. He executed them and pulled out the win. It was a team win. For the 3rd game in a row the Ducks, as a team, dominated the 4th quarter. They won 2 out of 3 of those games. There are certainly things to criticize about this team. But they are improving, a little each week. I think it's fair, as fans to criticize everything. Negative is easy to find and point out. And i agree that the Ducks have alot to improve on. But this Duck fan feels it is fair to point out the improvement this week. Remember, the Bruins, a top 10 team needed 7 turnovers and a bad coaching decision to beat the Ducks by 2 points. Looking foward to more improvement this week and a close, hard fought win against Illinois. Go Ducks.....
Yesterday
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Why Lanning Will NOT Replace the Offensive Coordinator and O-Line Coaches....
I’d agree. There are too many parts of the strategy puzzle we just don’t know being taken into consideration by Lanning and those people whose opinions he trusts. Case in point would be when Dan decided to replace Brock with Dylan. There were people in caves in Siberia screaming for Brock’s head by the 2nd quarter. But DL waited, and guess what? It was the right moment to make the change. Plain and simple: we don’t know what goes into deciding upon a coach’s fate, let alone when to switch quarterbacks in a game.
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Why Lanning Will NOT Replace the Offensive Coordinator and O-Line Coaches....
I haven't rewatched the game. but from memory the O line unit that was in in the 4th played about the best they have all year. I do believe that Tofi was a part of that group. Hopefully they have found a combo that works going forward. Get Donte back and who knows. Everyone is losing in the cfb this year. If Oregon can make the post season, win or lose, it is a massive success. If that happens, nobody gets fired imo.
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Hurych Named Big Ten Special Teams Player of the Week
Yeah man!
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Hurych Named Big Ten Special Teams Player of the Week
Rhule didn't account for our speed on kick coverage. Low hang time on kickoffs or punts is irrelevant with our speed. Bair can legitimately almost outrun the ball in the air.
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At Illinois, Noon PT, Big Ten Network, 2:00 pm CT
Illinois defense is 92nd and they have a new freshman QB who could be lights out, but he's never thrown against our level of DBs before. I also think we may have somewhat turned a corner on the OL with Tofi at LG. The line seems fine with a high uncertainty band on the QB for both sides LOL.
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Evan Stewart Reportedly Booked on DUII Charge
Evan Stewart is of age and is pretty slight and lean. 1 beer could be enough to trip the legal limit. Just need to wait for more facts. If he was out driving plowed and all over the road that's one thing, but if he was pulled over for speeding or some other minor infraction, and secondarily breathalyzed as barely over the limit when he didn't think he was, that would be very different, even though the law doesn't distinguish. Judge and coaches should handle them very differently. If we do get Evan back after his injury heals, I'm not sure Lott will give him the position back.