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So were we just too cocky or dumb?

Excellent comment.

Our fan base is hopelessly negative right now. The willing refusal to accept scientific facts AND anecdotal evidence in most replies is making me more mad than our performance. So I'll do y'all one worse: Dante Moore and Drew Mehringer had a decent game according to analysts play by play assessment. Not perfect, but good enough to win. Others were making the more damning mistakes on offense. But I'm sure that's the last thing anyone wants to hear right now. See y'all next week.

Pretty good analysis video dissecting the OL play over the weekend. The interior was generally ok since they were manned by experienced guys (Iuli, Pancho, Rodgers) but the tackle spots and additional linemen (like Tofi) in 6 man front plays were absolutely terrible and consistently compromised the front. The youth and inexperience really shows. Pretty eye-opening.

Obviously, it's not like Dan woke up Saturday morning and suddenly sucked at coaching college football. So far in Dan's career, he's had quite the storied coaching success, progression, and history ---- which includes having coached on 2 national championship teams. He then stepped into his first HC role at Oregon and into a program that, by all accounts, was primed and ready for him -- I mean specifically for Lanning. And right now he is sitting on an Oregon winning record of 84% -- which I'm pretty sure gives him the #2 winning percentage record at Oregon for coaches with 3+ seasons. And the good news is that although we've embarrassingly had the crap kicked out of us over the past few years in some massively huge games, Lanning is only 40. Meaning, not only is he still learning, but I'm quite confident that he wants to continue learning (especially regarding when not to go for it on 4th down). I'm hopeful our coach is able to put his ego aside a tad bit and be coached himself. Nearly 100% of great leaders have a coach/mentor (Mr. Saban, any chance you could swing by Eugene for a little while?). One of the absolute most important things I'm looking for in any person I'm considering hiring, regardless of how accomplished they may be, is are they coachable. If I don't believe they coachable, the discussion is over. I'm not sure there has ever been a college football coach who has been provided more incredible talent, resources, and effectively the keys to a Hummer that has the equivalent of a 1587+ horsepower Bugatti Chiron Super Sport 300 engine under the hood. And now that Dan Lanning is standing very close to the fire, the guy has an absolutely incredible golden opportunity to discover what kind of football coach he really is. Fire is an incredible refiner of gold. "Pressure and hardship do not define a man's worth; it reveals it. Fire, at the right temperature, burns away what is false, tests what is true, and leaves behind something much stronger and more valuable." However, the irony is, if the heat is too hot, gold turns into vapor and the precious resource is destroyed. We walk such a fine line. Great leaders thrive under heat and pressure. Many live for it. Now is the time, with all eyes on him, that we get to see the football stuff that Coach Lanning is truly made of. I’m not much of a betting man, but if I were, I’d put good money on Coach Lanning.

Great point and kind of what I'm getting at. Is a head coach basically simply evolving into a business man making deals and negotiating with agents about prices and expectations and less about rah rah style motivation?

Not buying the heat as a major factor. If it was that bad then the Ducks wouldn't of made a run in the 3rd and 4th qtr. IMO is was a typical DL team slow start. Saw it last year too many times. It's the lack of intensity at kick off. You have a team with 4*-5* players and one of the best group of players on D and you can't stop a rag tag team thats in a rebuild mode? I see it as a lack of preparation from the top down. The Ducks just weren't ready as they weren't ready for Bst. I'm gonna say it I'm not impressed with Hampton. It seems like our D has taken a step back. Many of the same players as last year and we let Okst score 39? Thats not just the heat.

Saban learned to pay recruits under the table. You can't do that now. He knew he couldn't cheat anymore, which is why he left.

A new D-Line should "free-up" 20+ Mil.

When Ohio St played Texas the Temp was 97 and the field temp was 163 at kickoff, I guess Ohio St prepared a tad better than Oregon did.

Lanning and co made a choice to bring back a ton of NFL ready players for another year. This meant bigger payouts for them. It also meant that those sitting in the second string needed to make a choice... stick around and continue to be second string (and be paid as such) or leave and try to leverage themselves into starters (and potentially a bigger payout). Which led to the loss of players last season. The compensation to keep all those second stringers would be too much. Additionally... they gotta think about the next year's recruits and the budget there too.

One thing that occurred to me yesterday about Dante: we keep expecting him to play like Bo Nix or Dillon Gabriel when it comes to reading the field and making decisions. I think we need to stop that. Bo and Dillon were 5th and 6th year QBs when they came to Oregon with multiple years of starting experience in other offensive systems. Plenty of coaching there that taught them to read defenses and look for open receivers down field. Then in Eugene they combined that with the high efficiency offense that Dilly and Will Stein ran, getting the best of both worlds. It's what made both these guys dangerous to defend. Dante does not have that background. He had a single year at UCLA where he learned very little because that team was terrible and Chip Kelly had one foot out the door. Afterward he came to Oregon where he sat for a year soaking up primarily high efficiency concepts and then started a year with basically just that background. Given that the "bird bomb" aspect of the offense has been minimal to non-existent since Gabriel's time, it makes me think that the offense is actually hampering his development. That might help explain why he keeps rushing his decisions to make a quick play and routinely miss open receivers 30-40 yards out. These are the thoughts of a fan and not a coach obviously but it feels like it makes sense.

Still scratching my head on this one, even with reshuffling the O-line the defense should be able to keep us in the game long enough for the offense to get on track. Granted the turnovers were huge, but we still can't get off the field on third (or fourth) down and our red zone defense is still atrocious. We really have no idea how good Okie St. is, but even with the turnovers and giving up a pick-6 they found a way to win. DL has real problem on his hands, this team has regressed in every phase except the kicking game which has been outstanding (the return game not so much). Hopefully this will light a fire, but it shouldn't take a loss to an overmatched team to motivate a team with national title aspirations.

I'd also like to add that Lanning is also a way ahead of the curve guy and will most likely readjust his style/ stratedgy to stay ahead of the curve regardless how this season turns out. I'm mostly just pointing out how the dynamics of coaching are evolving in real time.

Oregon Ducks open as 8-TD favorites over Portland State https://duckswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/ducks/football/2026/09/14/oregon-football-betting-preview-portland-state-week-3/91760273007/

This kid posted a 40 minute video doing nothing but reviewing a slew of offensive plays from the game. It allows you to see a lot of what's happening in detail: bad play calls, poor execution, head scratching decisions, etc. I found it pretty enlightening.

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What do we do with Dan Lanning? Maybe, just maybe we go up to the 30,000 foot level and take another peak at this. I am still stunned and frustrated with this loss, but I forced myself to try and be objective. I don't recommend that to anyone, it's very challenging when OBD are concerned, but I tried to do it for you so you don't have to. Before we throw away the guy who has taken Oregon to a 48–8 record over four seasons, maybe we should remember that another coach once had fans questioning whether he was getting enough out of his program. That coach was a guy by the name of Nick Saban. Saban's first four seasons at LSU 38-13: • 2000: 8–4 • 2001: 10–3 — SEC Champion • 2002: 8–5 • 2003: 13–1 — SEC Champion & National Champion After that 8–5 season in 2002, there was legitimate frustration around LSU. Expectations had risen. The talent was there. People questioned whether Saban was getting enough out of his players. Sound familiar? Then came 2003. Now look at Lanning: • 2022: 10–3 • 2023: 12–2 • 2024: 13–1 — Big Ten Champion • 2025: 13–2 48–8 vs 38-13 That's an absurd level of consistency. And Lanning isn't doing it with mediocre recruiting. Oregon has become a national recruiting powerhouse, consistently bringing in elite talent while also mastering the transfer portal. Saban's recruiting classes were routinely top 5 or better and he had a slightly worse win/loss ratio, albeit with no transfer portal...because that didn't exist "technically". So, does Lanning need to win a national championship? YES. At this point, that's the expectation at Oregon You can't have this type of talent and resources and get beat by Oklahoma State or taken to the wire by Boise State. But “we haven't won the championship yet” is not the same thing as “Lanning is an underachiever.” If we're going to judge Lanning, let's judge the entire body of work and not just the frustration of the latest loss. Because here's the uncomfortable truth: Nick Saban didn't win his first national championship at LSU until Year 4. Before that, there were losses. There were questions. There was frustration. There were people wondering whether all that talent was translating into enough wins. Then everything clicked. I'm not saying Dan Lanning is Nick Saban. I'm saying maybe we should be very careful before declaring that a coach who is winning at an extraordinary rate, recruiting at an elite level, and has transformed Oregon into a national contender is somehow failing. Now comes the hardest part: FINISHING THE JOB I believe that is where the majority of frustration comes from. Being so close. Supposedly having the pieces to do it. Bringing back NFL talent that so far hasn't looked it. Comparisons are brutal, but warranted. Will the Ducks win the CFP this year. Not the way they look now. But, WHEN they do, we may look back at these conversations very differently and see the growth of not just this program, but of Dan Lanning.

Not sure if the NIL era has passed Dan by, but his supposed area of expertise is slipping, imo.

If it's too expensive to fire the coach, fire the AD. I don't think this will help cover Alabama -20.5. https://apnews.com/article/florida-state-ad-fired-michael-alford-abc96f2a16e424e5c17ffc6509dd64d6

KK, terrific post, thanks. 83.34% of the regular season remains to be played. Will Oregon turn it around? Heck if I know. Oregon has the 3rd highest-rated composite roster in CFB, one of the most expensive rosters in CFB. After losing portal players Pregnon, World, and Harkey, Dan went after OL studs like Seaton. He was outbid in an unregulated market, with mega-fan billionaires acting like frenzied college-aged kids and not businessmen. The exact opposite of the NFL. If there is a season-long problem, it is as much the fault of Dan and the rating services overestimating the talent of recruits as it is bad portal-picking. O-line guys who cannot finish run blocks are not 2* and 3* players. If you can't run the ball ... Miami paid the most money in the history of CFB to pry Mario away from the Ducks. Mario has frenzied boosters looking to bring back The U regardless of cost, the benefit of a weak regular-season schedule, and no restraint on going after players under contract to another program. If Oregon had opened at Stanford and then played FAMU, what would the record be? Would there be any concerns heading into the Portland State game? Out-of-conference scheduling in CFB is an art; in 2026, Rob colored outside the lines. LSU beat down the premier portal-putz, Dabo Swinney. Let's see how Lane fares at No. 8 Ole Miss, No. 9 Texas A&M, at Kentucky, Mississippi State, at Auburn, No. 10 Alabama, No. 1 Texas, at No. 15 Tennessee, and at Arkansas. At season's end, will the LSU ROI be enough to justify spending $100 million to bring in Kiffin and buying a $45 + million roster? Today, LSU is searching for private equity money. Mike West authored an excellent article on the schemes used by Dan, particularly on defense, and whether the schemes work in today's game. But no scheme will work if experienced players, many of whom will play ball in the NFL, don't show up with a want-to-win attitude and don't play disciplined football. Top-rated players are committing game-changing penalties. I do believe it's fair to ask whether Dan can learn from his mistakes. We saw the Rose Bowl movie rerun in the Peach Bowl. But Saturday was Dan's first loss against an unranked team, and play like they did against the Ducks, these Cowboys could finish in the Top-25. Get well vs. the Vikings, then let's see how things go in LA.

I think Lanning is going to have to make some real big decisions at the end of the season around his staff. The only way he gets out of that is if Oregon wins a National Championship but doesn't seem remotely realistic.

For the first time Lanning has to deal major adversity...we will see what he is made of...Will be interesting to see how he responds. Go Ducks!

Defensively we retained most of it! All but 1 of the defensive front 7... yeah the loss was Bryce Boettcher whose leadership is greatly missed. The defensive backfield lost Theinaman ... but otherwise brought everyone back. Loss of leadership hurts. I suppose no one has stepped up to fill the leadership void. But with everyone back... the pass rush should be better and the secondary coverage should be better.

I think the departure of Tosh Lupoi is being felt here more than anything else to be honest. Lupoi was an incredible motivator from what I read and was able to get his guys focused and revved up for the game. I don't think anyone is filling that role. Lupoi was a huge piece of the Lanning culture and he's gone now and I don't think that's a void that anyone has stepped up to fill. Beyond that... I think Mehringer's play calling has been ok. I think most of the problem is on player execution and mindset. Dante Moore threw high on a fourth down to Dakorian Moore. He forced to rush his throw as the pass protection was there for him but he rushed the pass. Instead of putting that ball on Dakorian's number where Dak would have potentially taken it for a touchdown at that point in all honesty... he threw it high and just out of reach. Could Dakorian have caught that pass? Potentially yes... but he wouldn't have gotten any yards have catch (but it would have been a first down). And speaking of the receivers... they have been AWFUL at blocking. I know we all hate those bubble screen lateral passes but the reality is they exist and they usually pick up a chunk of yards because of other blocking to spring the runner free. That hasn't been happening as receivers blocking on the perimeter have been beaten in their blocks. I feel the bigger problem right now is on player preparation and positional coaching. There were more examples of Moore just throwing off target on Saturday to receivers who couldn't make a play on the ball because it was off target. There were also plenty of instances where receivers also dropped the ball too. The offensive line is a mess. As individuals they often look ok but as a unit they are coming undone. Pass protection is better than the run game, I think that is in part because the line can usually identify and pick up rushers and they are good enough athletes to take on their guy. But run blocking requires more team effort and coordination. Pulling linemen and getting into the second level is what pops big runs. There is no team right now... there are 11 guys on the field running around and doing things. This goes for both sides of the ball. I think the defense needs a change in scheme to be honest... only ever rushing four puts a lot of pressure on the back end to hold up long enough to create pressure. But this is Lanning's base defense we have been since he got here and though I think it needs to change, we've seen it so far better than this in previous years. Just some additional thoughts.