Marsh Duck Tuesday?

Well I was unable to get to editing the article on Sunday evening so I pushed the publishing date off until today. I also had sword classes on Sunday which was great for my mental health but also made me a bit too tired to want to deal with some of these issues facing the program right now.

Anyways I hope you find the article interesting... it wasn't the article I wanted to write and probably not the article you wanted to read this year about the coaching situation but here we are.

Trust in Lanning is Breaking

This isn’t the article I wanted to write and this isn’t the article you wanted to read.

I haven’t read the article, yet, but it sounds as though Coach Lanning is starting to feel the pressure and break a little based on his press conference responses. He was very defensive about his offensive coaches.

I’m by no means calling for his head but the PR team needs to help him out. It would be better to say I have no comment or will have to evaluate that after ____.

Edited 6 hours ago6 hr by OregonDucks

Great article David. Your weekly articles have become one of the best parts of the forum. Keep it up! In the big picture, I think this will just be the one step back after many steps forward for Lanning if he learns the right lessons which I think he will. I think Lanning's biggest mistake has been an out of balanced priority of recruiting over coaching.

I did a little research in another thread and was actually shocked at how little actual coaching history most of the offensive position coaches have vs how much recruiting history they have. For example, here's what the QB room looks like from QB1-QB4: 5 star, 5star. 3 star. 4 star. That's a galaxy of stars been lead by a QB coach that played tight end in college (UO) and has never even been a position coach before and only been an assistant QB coach with Stein in 24-25 before the promotion. What?

The three elephants in the room are QB regression, lack of O line development and lackluster play calling. Here are the guys responsible for those jobs.

The line is being coached by a guy with only one year at Hawaii as an O line coach before arriving at Oregon. They are all being lead by an OC with only one year at Rutgers as OC under his belt. They are being lead by QBs that are being lead by a guy learning his job in real time. This is the level of experience that is guiding a team with national championship aspirations. Unbelievable. I would expect more experience at a mid level Sun Belt conference team.

All of those guys primary responsibilities at their earlier stops was recruiting. Lanning is a smart guy but obviously miscalculated the priorities for long term success. I think he'll right the ship in the off season but this year won't be what we had hoped but if it's the one step back before the championship step forward, it will be worth it.

I think a lot of this discussion needs to be focused on Dan Lanning himself. How did we end up hiring a riverboat gambler? I don't think he learned his way too agressive behavior (IMHO) from Kirby Smart or Nick Saban. The most recent examples are the Oklahoma State game where his go for it attitude on 4th and 8 yards arguably cost us the game. Against UCLA his poor decision to go for two points after the first TD probably cost us the game. Our defense is playing relatively well considering they had to play the 2/3rds of the last game due to offensive miscues. The offense is a mess. Mehringer has done a poor job and his resume is poor but he works for the Head Coach who is ultimately responsible. Changes need to be made now because we are trending in the wrong direction.

4 minutes ago, Santa Rosa Duck said:

I think a lot of this discussion needs to be focused on Dan Lanning himself. How did we end up hiring a riverboat gambler? I don't think he learned his way too agressive behavior (IMHO) from Kirby Smart or Nick Saban. The most recent examples are the Oklahoma State game where his go for it attitude on 4th and 8 yards arguably cost us the game. Against UCLA his poor decision to go for two points after the first TD probably cost us the game. Our defense is playing relatively well considering they had to play the 2/3rds of the last game due to offensive miscues. The offense is a mess. Mehringer has done a poor job and his resume is poor but he works for the Head Coach who is ultimately responsible. Changes need to be made now because we are trending in the wrong direction.

Oregon has had some pretty good success rates on 4th down under Lanning and if he wants to keep that going he needs an offensive coordinator who can make sure those short yardage situations are effectively a freebie. Anyone remember how frustrating some of those David Shaw teams at Stanford were? Fourth and 2 and here comes the jumbo package and they convert almost every freaking time. Part of that is power and part of that is scheme and part of that is just darn good coaching.

I need to dig up the old article I had from 2022 but Dillingham's jumbo package was a thing of beauty. With that package it was almost a guarantee of converting in short yardage situations.

Lanning wants to play like he has top tier coaches in the sport and is making decisions with that in mind. The reality is that he doesn't have those coaches.

Lanning is the one who is going to need to make those changes to his coaching roster and he will need to own it. If not in public at least with himself. At the end of the day Lanning is ultimately accountable and the fan-bases' trust in him is breaking but I am not saying broken. He will get an opportunity to prove himself in the off season and next season. And yes, I am aware we still have half a season ahead of us still.

11 minutes ago, The Kamikaze Kid said:

All of those guys primary responsibilities at their earlier stops was recruiting. Lanning is a smart guy but obviously miscalculated the priorities for long term success. I think he'll right the ship in the off season but this year won't be what we had hoped but if it's the one step back before the championship step forward, it will be worth it.

Good news is that he rights the ship in a timely fashion in the off season he reloads the roster with talent from the portal quickly and can be right back in contention next year. Rebuilds are faster than ever. Holding onto key pieces on this roster will be difficult but again communicating to players at least behind closed doors can ensure players stick around.

Yes David I fully agree. In fact I think this step back may be what's needed to take that elusive step forward. Without these awful faceplants, an 11-1 type season with another playoff humiliation is what would have been the future and Lanning probably doesn't change a thing. I Think between NIL, GMs and the portal, recruiter first coaches will lose significance anyway and coaches that can prep 4-5 stars for the NFL will be the priority and UO would be a great place for those types of coaches to locate to.

15 minutes ago, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Yes David I fully agree. In fact I think this step back may be what's needed to take that elusive step forward. Without these awful faceplants, an 11-1 type season with another playoff humiliation is what would have been the future and Lanning probably doesn't change a thing. I Think between NIL, GMs and the portal, recruiter first coaches will lose significance anyway and coaches that can prep 4-5 stars for the NFL will be the priority and UO would be a great place for those types of coaches to locate to.

Oregon sending a lot to the NFL lately, 4/5 star talent must be getting some coaching up to do that. Nobody wins the natty without a blue chip roster, recruiting is key to that. Coaching the synergy to put those talented players in a position to play as a championship caliber TEAM is the missing piece.

Lanning's overall record as a HC is pretty good, we won 2 playoff games last year. Injuries late season were terrible, but...teams have figured us out and it's mostly on poor coaching. I don't know if DL is the right guy to do X and O but neither was/is Mari, Miami is on the verge now because Mari hired a great staff (and he is a superb recruiter too like DL) and Mari learned to let his staff (and coordinators primarily) scheme the wins.

Mari won the locker room (remember the team petitioning for him after Taggart bailed?). Lanning is a guy who can win the locker room ("they're playing for clicks...") and be the "CEO" but a good CEO has a good team of assistants running the operations

JDuck Great post. I agree that Lanning has had some great coaches on his staff. The problem is a lot of them have left for promotions and have been replaced with guys with far more recruiting chops than actual coaching experience before joining the staff.

7 minutes ago, The Kamikaze Kid said:

JDuck Great post. I agree that Lanning has had some great coaches on his staff. The problem is a lot of them have left for promotions and have been replaced with guys with far more recruiting chops than actual coaching experience before joining the staff.

Lanning has absolutely made great hires. I keep going back to the idea here that he has become complacent and comfortable with those within his staff and has not looked outside. He wants to keep the good thing going but with every coach that leaves he promotes a young coach from within is a net loss in experience. I think most of these young guys Lanning has promoted may yet turn into great coaches but is Oregon the place for them to cut their teeth in these expanded position roles? I don't think so.

And at the end of the day each of these promotions from within with inexperience has finally hit a critical mass. There is too much inexperience (or lack of ability) to hide anymore and everything is coming undone.

It's clear Lanning is upset with this turn of events. He doesn't want to throw his guys under the bus, nor should he, and no one is getting fired until the end of the season. But we saw what an expirenced and veteran staff can do with scheme and the transfer portal.... Indiana built a program quickly and managed to win it all with the right talent. Lanning has made some great hires and he just needs to do that again.

One of the popular names right now for Lanning to go get is Norvell as OC (when it seems he is inevitably fired at FSU). That could be a great get for the offense. But Lanning needs to go out and get some experienced coaches from outside the program.

David, you didn't want to write it, but I'm happy that you were driven, despite the sword, to do so. Thank you!

The truth hurts, but it's time for Lanning to look in the mirror. Complacency was this offseason's watchword and is now this season's nemesis.

David, you nailed the coaching and scheme issues; how about player evaluation issues?

Everyone who pays attention to the program knew that four starting O-linemen had to be replaced. One player was signed out of the portal, a player from the FCS Ivy League. Before he disappeared, he briefly won a starting spot.

Unfortunately, two touted OL recruits and a touted TE recruit are not ready for B1G time football.

If you cannot run the ball, you will not win most Power 4 football games. Perhaps too much money went to retain NFL talent on the D-line? Talent that seems to have suffered senioritis-driven overconfidence.

As poorly as the Oregon offense played against UCLA, the team's reliable kicker, after a great effort from Evan Stewart, tied the game with an extra point. Brock Thomas is playing well at QB, and the UCLA D is also gassed and down to its second-string QB. In OT, Oregon wins the ...

But Wait A Minute! For some inexplicable, unjustifiable, going-against-the-analytics reason, Oregon goes for two after its first score. Why? Especially with a backup QB in the game.

My biggest concern? Dan Lanning seems incapable of learning from his mistakes. Bitten on off-the-wall in-game decisions, but never twice shy.

And a visit to Seahawks HQ did nothing to help with another meltdown after a bye week.

New to the Power 4, Bob Chesney is 1-and-1 in Autzen Stadium, and a once-dismal UCLA team is ranked 12th in the AP Poll.

We all make mistakes. Goodness knows that I have made more than enough. But most of us learn from our mistakes.

I'll give Dan some slack for playing a much more difficult schedule than anticipated. Four out of five games were played against currently ranked AP Top-25 teams.

I do question whether Dan has the moxie to take Oregon to a title. Hubris seems to be getting in the way of common sense decisions. Learned folks on the Forum have pointed out deficiencies in the systems being used on both sides of the ball. Can't Dan read a stat sheet?

Of course, it doesn't matter what I think, but what big boosters think does matter.

Husk the Huskers!

35 minutes ago, JDuck said:

Oregon sending a lot to the NFL lately, 4/5 star talent must be getting some coaching up to do that. Nobody wins the natty without a blue chip roster, recruiting is key to that. Coaching the synergy to put those talented players in a position to play as a championship caliber TEAM is the missing piece.

Lanning's overall record as a HC is pretty good, we won 2 playoff games last year. Injuries late season were terrible, but...teams have figured us out and it's mostly on poor coaching. I don't know if DL is the right guy to do X and O but neither was/is Mari, Miami is on the verge now because Mari hired a great staff (and he is a superb recruiter too like DL) and Mari learned to let his staff (and coordinators primarily) scheme the wins.

Mari won the locker room (remember the team petitioning for him after Taggart bailed?). Lanning is a guy who can win the locker room ("they're playing for clicks...") and be the "CEO" but a good CEO has a good team of assistants running the operations

No one other than Curt Cignetti. 😁

UCLA pre-game:

1 hour ago, The Kamikaze Kid said:

I think this will just be the one step back after many steps forward for Lanning if he learns the right lessons which I think he will.

Agreed. When all your hires have gone so well....it is natural to begin to believe that you make better decisions that anyone else. So this set-back is part of going with a young coach who is still learning...and he will.

24 minutes ago, Jon Joseph said:

Unfortunately, two touted OL recruits and a touted TE recruit are not ready for B1G time football.

Not every player is ready to play coming out of high school.

But in this case it makes you wonder if they weren't coached up enough. Jack Smith a new coach (at least very young) and tight end has regressed this season.

Terry has a mounting record against him at this point that he has done well with transfers coming in and done well with special players who seem to figure things out themselves but he has a TON of players on the roster who aren't developed enough to play.

I've been hesitant to call for heads in the past but now I have enough evidence from where I sit.

I think we are seeing that the masterminds behind Oregon's success over the last 3 years were due to talent and the COs.

Lengthy Monday media press conference, quotes:

Oregon Ducks On SI

Dan Lanning Promises Oregon Changes During Tense Exchange

The Oregon Ducks’ second loss in five games has raised a plethora of questions about the program’s preparation and the job security of members of the coaching s

Has Dan The Man reached his ceiling? I don't know.

Is the Oregon offense predictable? You be the judge.

Might as well call Andy Ludwig back to call sideline passes for no gain...

Edited 3 hours ago3 hr by BroncoSas

2 hours ago, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Great article David. Your weekly articles have become one of the best parts of the forum. Keep it up! In the big picture, I think this will just be the one step back after many steps forward for Lanning if he learns the right lessons which I think he will. I think Lanning's biggest mistake has been an out of balanced priority of recruiting over coaching.

I did a little research in another thread and was actually shocked at how little actual coaching history most of the offensive position coaches have vs how much recruiting history they have. For example, here's what the QB room looks like from QB1-QB4: 5 star, 5star. 3 star. 4 star. That's a galaxy of stars been lead by a QB coach that played tight end in college (UO) and has never even been a position coach before and only been an assistant QB coach with Stein in 24-25 before the promotion. What?

The three elephants in the room are QB regression, lack of O line development and lackluster play calling. Here are the guys responsible for those jobs.

The line is being coached by a guy with only one year at Hawaii as an O line coach before arriving at Oregon. They are all being lead by an OC with only one year at Rutgers as OC under his belt. They are being lead by QBs that are being lead by a guy learning his job in real time. This is the level of experience that is guiding a team with national championship aspirations. Unbelievable. I would expect more experience at a mid level Sun Belt conference team.

All of those guys primary responsibilities at their earlier stops was recruiting. Lanning is a smart guy but obviously miscalculated the priorities for long term success. I think he'll right the ship in the off season but this year won't be what we had hoped but if it's the one step back before the championship step forward, it will be worth it.

Our assumption is there are unlimited funds for our roster and coaches. Maybe that isn't the case and maybe it's a shared bucket.

Experience cost money. If we can afford a $50M player roster, maybe that is because DL is paying lower salaries to the coaching staff which as low experience is internal hires are happy to take the gig. Perhaps someone can dig up our assistant coach salaries to compare with other public universities using AI.

26 minutes ago, David Marsh said:

Not every player is ready to play coming out of high school.

But in this case it makes you wonder if they weren't coached up enough. Jack Smith a new coach (at least very young) and tight end has regressed this season.

Terry has a mounting record against him at this point that he has done well with transfers coming in and done well with special players who seem to figure things out themselves but he has a TON of players on the roster who aren't developed enough to play.

I've been hesitant to call for heads in the past but now I have enough evidence from where I sit.

Lanning addressed Terry in the posted press conference above as I was afraid of. "He's had 3 Joe Moore award finalists offensive lines, he didn't suddenly get bad at his job." Actually what if he is only good at getting the line to gel, but the transfers received the proper fundamental coaching elsewhere.

The folks that are truly Terry's from day one just suck relative to their ratings.

Yet Terry must also have been blowing smoke to DL to not bother with strong Portal OL. Now the gig should be up.

DL is no dummy, so I have to hope his statement above is him trying to save a little face too with the public, but deep down knowing Terry isn't the right guy unless he can work a miracle in the second half of the season.

23 minutes ago, BroncoSas said:

Might as well call Andy Ludwig back to call sideline passes for no gain...

And yet Ludwig did super at Utah later.....

What does Lanning need to do to earn your trust back?

Nothing.

A) Going for 2 on the first TD, that is Thomas' call if he feels the play call had the advantage.

B) The second attempt, Thomas scores except for a face mask pull.

C) The second attempt 2.0, the play call from the 1/2 yard line probably works. From the 1 1/2, well ti should have worked except the OC should have realized our OLine wasn't up to it. A nice fake and rollout would have been "hindsight" nice.

D) A, B, C and our D did not lose the game.

Thanks David; when you have the health of the program at heart, a gut-check, ‘tough love’ article is sometimes called for on individuals who make up that program.

A person’s star can ascend faster than that person is ready to have it to do so, leaving them to chase after it in the mad rush to measure up to expectations. When one finds himself suddenly isolated in a high pressure role that normally takes years of experience to acquire, an unseen inadequacy and uncertainty can often be the outcome, especially if success is immediate. I think Dan kind of fits into that category.

That’s why I wouldn’t call it complacency or getting comfortable, so much as just trying to catch-up to his star. Sometimes you just need that time to figure out who and where you are, how you got there and where you’re going.

The problem for Dan is he doesn’t have that luxury. He’s going to have to do it on the run.

Behind the 9 Ball?

Although SI's Pat Forde wonders why Oregon, considering the competition, isn't ranked in the Top-25.

SI

Forde-Yard Dash: College Football’s Nine Biggest Busts at...

From a preseason national title favorite to high-profile SEC programs, several teams have turned promising seasons into uphill battles.

Do player stars really matter? IN won with veteran 3-4 star players and a dang good QB. JMHO but all this failure falls on the coaches. Poor player coaching and poor game coaching. I find it hard to believe that we have 4-5 players on the O line that are busts.

It's all on Lanning. He's young and inexperienced as far as coaches go and I hope he can swallow some pride and ditch his ego and make some positive changes for this season and next season. I like the guy as a coach and it would be nice to see him succeed.

47 minutes ago, Washington Waddler said:

Thanks David; when you have the health of the program at heart, a gut-check, ‘tough love’ article is sometimes called for on individuals who make up that program.

A person’s star can ascend faster than that person is ready to have it to do so, leaving them to chase after it in the mad rush to measure up to expectations. When one finds himself suddenly isolated in a high pressure role that normally takes years of experience to acquire, an unseen inadequacy and uncertainty can often be the outcome, especially if success is immediate. I think Dan kind of fits into that category.

That’s why I wouldn’t call it complacency or getting comfortable, so much as just trying to catch-up to his star. Sometimes you just need that time to figure out who and where you are, how you got there and where you’re going.

The problem for Dan is he doesn’t have that luxury. He’s going to have to do it on the run.

Someone in the national media pointed out that young head coaches used to be able to learn and grow at smaller programs before taking over at a national program.

Nick Saban was the head coach at Toledo and Michigan State before LSU and Alabama.

Urban Meyer started his head coaching career at Bowling Green and Utah before Florida and Ohio State.

Coach Lanning did not have that luxury and whether we like it or not is learning on the job.

Coach Bellotti was a very good CEO type head coach, who hired well, but even he occasionally hired the wrong person. Luckily he seemed to realize it and make the change quickly. We’ll have to wait and see what Coach Lanning does.

Well, it's not like the O-coordinator job is a life-time appointment. Oregon has had 23 in 56 seasons:

1971 - John Robinson   (Frei)

1972-73 - Jesse Branch   (Enright)

1974 - Joe Wade   (Read)

1975-76 - Gene Dahlquist

1977-79 - John Becker   (Brooks)

1980-82 - Erik Widmark

1983-88 - Bob Toledo

1989-94 - Mike Bellotti

1995 - Al Borges   (Bellotti)

1996-97 - Dirk Koetter

1998-01 - Jeff Tedford

2002-04 - Andy Ludwig

2005-06 - Gary Crowton

2007-08 - Chip Kelly

2009-12 - Mark Helfrich   (Kelly)

2013-15 - Scott Frost   (Helfrich)

2016 - Matt Lubick

2017 - Marcus Arroyo/Mario Cristobal   (Taggart)

2018-19 - Marcus Arroyo   (Cristobal)

2020-21 - Joe Moorhead

2022 – Kenny Dillingham (Lanning)

2023 – Will Stein

2026 –Drew Mehringer

Edited 1 hour ago1 hr by HDuck

Notwithstanding the loss, CBS Sports gives credit to Oregon.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/oregon-college-football-power-ratings-tom-fornelli/

As to Dan's going for 2, I respectfully disagree with those who are giving Dan a pass. It was a devastating mistake with tragic consequences. No way the reward justified the risk.